Fans of the Washington Capitals either were not born, too young, or have had too many ugly things happen in their history of watching the Caps and Pittsburgh Penguins to recall that this history began with a 4-2 Caps win over the Penguins in their very first postseason meeting on April 17, 1991. Since then, the history has been lopsided in its ladling of happiness, piling it up on the plates of Penguins and Penguin fans and doling it out with an eyedropper to Capitals and Caps fans. On Saturday night, the Penguins made themselves home in Verizon Center and had six helpings of fun and joy in a 6-2 win over the Caps to put the club down, 0-2, in games as the series heads to Pittsburgh. The cousins have seen this movie before.
Fearless… Give the Caps credit, they are in uncharted
territory here. Never in any of their
previous nine postseason series against the Penguins have they found themselves
in an 0-2 hole in games. Three times
they had a 2-0 lead (and lost each time); six times they split the first two
games (and lost five times). If history
is a guide (and it is, but that’s all it is, not a manual), this will either
end in a sweep for the Pens (the last time the Caps lost Games 1 and 2 at home,
they were swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning), or they will win the series (the
time before that, they beat the New York Rangers in seven games).
Cheerless… Back in 2015, the Caps won five straight postseason
games on home ice, tying their longest streak of success at Verizon Center
since 2008. Since those five consecutive
wins, the Caps are 6-6 on home ice in the postseason and have lost three of
five games so far this year. Since 2008,
the Caps have been a dominating team on home ice in the regular season, a so-so
one in the postseason…
*****
Cheerless… It didn’t take long…
Fearless… Alex Ovechkin has had a hand in three of the Caps’
four goals in this series and scored one of them himself. Sidney Crosby has had a hand in four of the
Penguins’ nine goals and scored two of them himself. The stars are doing their jobs, scoring
wise. Pittsburgh has seven goals from
four players not named “Crosby;” the Caps have three goals from three players
not named “Ovechkin.” The second line for
the Caps has one goal on 14 shots; the third line has no goals on eight shots. That which was built for this series looks
like a vacant warehouse so far.
*****
Fearless… Over an infinite number of trials, a team with the
sort of shooting dominance the Caps have had at 5-on-5 in this series would do
very well. They have out-attempted the
Penguins, 141-68 (67.5 percent), out-shot them at fives by a 57-34 margin (62.6
percent).
Cheerless… 5-on-5 goals for and goals against... Penguins 6 –
Capitals 3. The rest is just fancystat
porn.
*****
Cheerless… One number no Caps fan would have expected in this
postseason: .911. That is Braden Holtby’s
save percentage in the postseason, 13th of 16 goaltenders having
played in at least 100 minutes. He has a
.829 save percentage in this series. He
now has a career postseason record against Pittsburgh of 2-6, 2.80, .910. Not the Holtby Caps fans recognize.
Fearless… “Hot goalie” again. It being Marc-Andre Fleury makes it
especially difficult for the Caps, but he’s got the third-best save percentage
of those 16 goalies with at least 100 minutes of ice time and has done it
facing the most shots per 60 minutes (37.0).
He’s playing himself into the Conn Smythe conversation. Sort of the “anti-Cam Ward,” the veteran who
comes in as a backup to lead his team to success.
*****
Fearless… Losing the first two games at home in a series is
not a death sentence when it comes to winning a Stanley Cup. The Carolina Hurricanes did it in 2006,
dropping Games 1 and 2 on home ice to the Montreal Canadiens in the first round
before going on to win the Cup. The
Boston Bruins did it in 2011, coming out on the wrong side of home ice
decisions in Games 1 and 2 against the Canadiens in the first round before
righting themselves and winning the title.
It has happened before.
Cheerless… Maybe the Caps should have played Montreal
instead of the Penguins.
*****
Peerless… A lot is going to be made over the Penguins
blocking 33 Capitals shots in Game 2 and scoring two goals as a direct result
of blocked shots. That is being
opportunistic. That is effective
counter-punching. But if the Caps could
finish what they started with the pressure they applied on the Penguins early
in both Games 1 and 2, the conversation would be very different. The “blocked-shot-leads-to-goals” comes a
couple of steps after “Caps-pile-up-Corsi’s-to-no-effect.” The persistent thread that runs through the history
of the Caps’ postseason since 2008 is a lack of scoring depth, of being unable
to translate pressure into points. Alex
Ovechkin has had a hand in 88 of 226 goals scored by the Caps in those nine (and
counting) playoff seasons covering 92 games.
Washington is going to need to find other sources for production in this
series, as the Penguins have so far (and so, it would seem, in just about every
series ever played between these teams), or this is not going to end well for
the men in red.
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