"And oft so mix, the difference is too nice
Where ends the virtue or begins the vice."
-- Alexander Pope
It seems a bit odd to speak of a player barely 23 years old as a
“veteran,” but the Washington Capitals’ Tom Wilson just about qualifies. Drafted 16th overall in 2012, and
perhaps forever to be known as “the other first round draft pick” in the draft
that yielded Filip Forsberg, Wilson has appeared in more games than anyone in
his draft class (313) than any of the 211 players taken in his draft class
except Montreal’s Alex Galchenyuk (336).
He finished the 2016-2017 season in 58th place all time in
games played for the Caps, ahead of such better known personalities as Joe
Juneau (312), Tomas Fleischmann (283), and Al Iafrate (256).
Wilson appeared in 82 games in 2016-2017, the third time in four
seasons he completed the entire dance card of an NHL regular season. This year, though, there was less
“dancing.” Coming into this season,
Wilson racked up more penalty minutes over the last three seasons (486) than
any player in the league. Only two
players – Cody McLeod (45) and Derek Dorsett (38) – were charged with more
major penalties than Wilson (36). Wilson
was still among the leaders in penalty minutes in 2016-2017, but his 133
minutes were 30 fewer than in 2015-2016 and the lowest of his four-year career.
It might have been an even more abrupt reduction in penalty minutes but
for a rather active end of the season.
Wilson started the season in an almost placid fashion, accumulating only
35 minutes in his first 30 games. Even
through six ten-game splits he had just 65 minutes, putting him on a pace to
finish with 89 minutes. However, he had
68 minutes in his last 22 games (more than half of them – 35 – coming in three
games).
One might have thought that this season of reform with respect to
playing within the rules was accompanied by an improvement in the finer arts of
the sport – goals, assists, points.
Given that Wilson improved in each scoring category in each of his first
three seasons, this seemed a reasonable expectation. Unfortunately, Wilson’s low penalty totals
early in the season were accompanied by low offensive output. He was just 2-2-4 through his first four
ten-game splits.
The good news is that Wilson did pick up his production pace over the
last half of the season. In his last
four ten-game splits he was 5-10-15, a 10-21-31 scoring pace over a full
82-game season. It was a case, in part,
of picking up his shooting pace. After
recording just two goals on 38 shots in the first four ten-game splits (5.3
percent), he had five goals on 57 shots in the last four ten-game splits of the
season (8.8 percent). It allowed Wilson
to finish the year with a career-best 7.4 percent shooting.
Fearless’ Take… One area in which Tom Wilson has been given more
responsibility is penalty killing. In
his first two seasons he logged a total of eight seconds of penalty killing
time. In 2015-2016 he was upped to an
average of 1:35 per game, and this past season he was one of for forwards to
top two minutes per game in penalty killing (2:04). And there was that next level scoring. The Caps were 14-3-0 in games in which Wilson
recorded a point. And he was a player
for whom more time was an indicator of more success (another example, perhaps,
of being able to roll four lines).
Washington was 10-3-0 in those games in which he logged at least 15
minutes, only 5-5-3 in those games in which he logged fewer than 11 minutes.
Cheerless’ Take… One might have thought the last thing to come around
in Tom Wilson’s game would be his ability to find the back of the net. He came into the league as a raw talent and
spent his first three years as the closest thing to an enforcer as there is
left in the NHL. But now, after four
seasons, Wilson is in a difficult spot.
There have been 20 forwards in Caps history 23 years of age or younger who
appeared in at least 100 games and recorded at least 50 shots on goal while
appearing in four seasons. Wilson is last
on that list in goals per game (0.07) and in shooting percentage (6.3 percent; numbers
from hockey-reference.com). Wilson is
unlikely to become a high-end producer on offense, but one might reasonably
expect that his numbers need to improve.
Odd Wilson Fact… The Caps were 34-13-3 in games in which Wilson did not
serve a penalty minute, 1.42 standing points per game. They were 21-6-5 in those games in which
Wilson did serve time in the box, 1.47 points per game. They were 6-2-2 in games in which he was
charged with at least five minutes (1.40 points per game). It hardly seemed to matter.
Game to remember… January 13th vs. Chicago
The Chicago Blackhawks are a talented, successful team. One way we know this is that since 2005-2006
only two Washington Capitals recorded three or more points against them –
Nicklas Backstrom in March 2010 (2-1-3) and Mikhail Grabovski in October 2013
(3-1-4). Last January, Tom Wilson became
the third such Capital to record that achievement. Wilson got on the score sheet when he
recorded an odd assist on a jay Beagle goal six minutes into the game. Taking a pass from Daniel Winnik at his own
blue line, John Carlson headed up ice and tried to split the defense at the
Chicago line. He blew a tire, though and
the puck slid toward the left wing boards where Michal Rozsival tried to clear
it. Wilson got his stick on it, though,
and it bounced to Winnik, who fed Beagle for a wrister at the top of the left
wing circle that skittered through goalie Corey Crawford. The Caps added two more goals in the first
period, and then Wilson got a goal of his own late in the second period. Exiting the defensive zone with speed, Lars
Eller banked a pass off the right wing boards to Nate Schmidt closing on the
Chicago line. Putting on the brakes,
Schmidt fed the puck in deep to Wilson darting to the net. Even though the pass was muffled by Brian
Campbell, the puck had enough juice to get to Wilson, who swatted it past
Crawford with just over two minutes left in the period. After T.J. Oshie scored early in the third
period to make it 5-0, Wilson got his third point when he assisted on Beagtle’s
second goal of the game with less than two minutes left in the 6-0 win. It was Wilson’s first three-point game in the
NHL.
Game to forget… November 26th vs. Toronto
Playing for your hometown team is a thrill, and one supposes that if
you don’t have that honor, playing against them might be the next best
thing. Unless you have the sort of game
Tom Wilson and the Caps had in Toronto in late November. The Caps won the before and after games on
home ice around the Thanksgiving holiday, and the trip to Toronto completed a
back-to-back set of games, their third game in four nights with a holiday
thrown in for good measure. Not a recipe
for success. The Leafs scored less than
three minutes into the game, scored again less than four minutes into the
second period, and then scored again less than a minute into the third
period. The Caps sandwiched a couple of
cosmetic goals around a fourth Toronto goal, and the Caps dropped a 4-2
decision. Wilson’s contribution was a
fight against Matt Martin in the third period, after which he had just one
shift on a night when he skated less than nine minutes and a team-low 15
shifts.
Postseason: 13 games, 3-0-3, minus-2
Three goals from a fourth-liner in 13 postseason games is not a bad
performance, but appearances can be deceiving.
Wilson scored all three of those goals in the first four games of the
opening round series against Toronto. The first one came in Game 1, the
overtime winner on his only shot of the game, and it was his first career
playoff goal. The other two came in Game
4, both of them scored when he was put on the third line with Lars Eller and
Andre Burakovsky, each assisting on one of Wilson’s goals. But that was it. Wilson went the final nine games of the
postseason without a point and 12 shots on goal. And he logged penalty minutes in five of the
last six games of the series against the Penguins, 22 minutes in all.
In the end…
Tom Wilson might have taken a step sideways in his development in
2016-2017. He did not take that step
forward in offensive production, although he did take on additional defensive
responsibilities (more penalty killing time) and pared back his penalty minutes
(the late stages of the postseason being the notable exception). Wilson is certainly young enough that the
bump in offensive production one would hope for a 16th overall draft
pick can still be realized, but he has enough games under his belt that he
might no longer be considered all that young.
With departures in the offing from this year’s club, a performance in
2017-2018 by Wilson along this year’s lines could be considered a
disappointment. But for now, he’s still
working out the difference between where ends the vice of being the “physical”
player and where begins the virtue of being a more frequent contributor in
other ways.
Grade: B-
Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America
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