“Uncertainty and expectation are the joys of life.
Security
is an insipid thing.”
-- William Congreve
When a team becomes only the third team since its creation
in 1986 to win consecutive Presidents Trophies, when that team wins 50 or more
games in consecutive seasons for the second time in club history, when that
team becomes only the second team in NHL history to record at least 118 points
in three or more seasons (the Montreal Canadiens being the other, having done
it four times), and yet fails to get out of the second round of the postseason
for the 25th time in 27 trips to the playoffs, one might start to wonder, will
it ever happen. The “it,” of course, would be a Stanley Cup championship.
The Capitals managed their roster last year with a focus on
breaking the string of misfortune that had them fail in 11 straight postseason
appearances to reach a conference final. As all Caps fans know, that streak
reached 12 straight playoff appearances when they were eliminated for the
second straight season in the second round by the Pittsburgh Penguins, who
would go on to their second straight Stanley Cup (note: the Penguins have five
Stanley Cups, all of which have been earned having gone through the Caps to get
there).
If last year, one in which the Caps engineered their roster
for a deep playoff run, was one filled with expectations, the season they are
about to embark on is one filled with uncertainty. It is a roster that still
possesses skill among their top six forwards, top pair on defense, and in goal.
However, it is one that lacks the depth and experience that last year’s roster
had.
It is also a roster that will no doubt be younger on opening
night. Karl Alzner, Kevin Shattenkirk, Justin Williams, and Daniel Winnik, all
of whom were 28 or older last season, could be replaced by Madison Bowey,
Christian Djoos, Jakub Vrana, and Nathan Walker, all of whom are 23 or younger. With youth will come uncertainty. Will they grow into more reliable, productive
players in time for the spring, or will their progress be incomplete, requiring
further seasoning in Hershey with the AHL Bears?
There is also the matter of players who occupied lesser
roles in 2016-2017 who will be thrust into more responsible roles in the new
season. Can Brett Connolly (15 goals in
a largely third-line role last season) jump into the top-six and duplicate, if
not improve on last season’s surprising output?
If he cannot, is it time for Tom Wilson – who has yet to reach the
10-goal or 25-point mark in four seasons – to step into that role as a second
line right wing behind T.J. Oshie in the depth chart? Can Andre Burakovsky, who performed well in a
third-line role last season, take the great leap forward and boost his numbers
as a second line left wing replacing the departed Marcus Johansson? Will Dmitry Orlov cement his spot on the top
defensive pair with Matt Niskanen and perhaps pick up those shorthanded minutes
that Karl Alzner (now with Montreal) had last season?
And then there is depth.
No team goes a full season with 18 skaters dressing. There will be those times when circumstances
dictate that the Caps dip into the farm system to find replacements who can
contribute, if only for short stretches.
And even here, the Caps are trending young and/or untested at the NHL
level, as the Bears’ training camp roster indicates, only three skaters having
had any NHL experience last season (Riley Barber, Liam O’Brien, and Garrett
Mitchell). It is conceivable that any of these three, not to mention players such as Lucas
Johansen, Connor Hobbs, Travis Boyd, or Jonas Siegenthaler – players who could
be regulars in the lineup someday – could be called upon to fill in. But for this season at least, their effects
on the Capitals’ performance is uncertain.
Associated with depth is the negative space of sorts
flanking third line center Lars Eller and fourth line center Jay Beagle. Last year they centered Andre Burakovsky and
Brett Connolly, and Daniel Winnik and Tom Wilson (for the most part),
respectively. This year, they could be
centering youngsters, or they could be breaking in more experienced, if not
with the Caps (and perhaps less capable than last year’s cohort), wingers like
Devante Smith-Pelly or Tyler Graovac or Alex Chiasson, a trio with fewer than
650 regular season and fewer than 50 postseason games among them. Recall that Winnik, who played capably on the
fourth line last season, has 717 regular season and 58 postseason games of NHL
experience himself.
In the end…
Last season, the Capitals had a certain, well, certainty
with respect to its roster. It was a
known quantity, experienced, and filled with players with well-defined roles
and expectations as to how those roles would be fulfilled. It was built for a deep playoff run. It was expected to make a deep playoff
run. But as it turns out, expectations
can yield to the uncertainty of fate in the short-series format of the NHL
postseason.
And now, while the Caps can still lay claim to a top-notch
top-six cohort of forwards and a three-deep defense with Matt Niskanen, Dmitry
Orlov, and John Carlson, the uncertainty of how the bottom six will perform or
even who the Caps will ice among their second and third defensive pairs leaves Capitals Nation wondering just what lies in store for this team. If everything falls into place, they could challenge for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division. If players cannot step up into the roles departures have opened up, making the playoffs will be a challenge. Last
season, Capitals Nation knew expectations, but they brought little joy. This
season, they will know uncertainty.
Projection: 45-27-10, 100 points, third Metropolitan Division
Photo: Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images North America
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