The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
After a brief departure in the recent schedule that allowed
the Washington Capitals to take on a Metropolitan Division rival over the
weekend – a 4-3 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Caps go back to facing
non-divisional opponents on Monday night when the San Jose Sharks come to
town. The Caps will be looking to get
past the .500 mark on their current five-game home stand as well as notch their
tenth win on home ice this season.
San Jose comes to town to wrap up a four-game road trip on
which they are 2-1-0 with wins over Philadelphia and Florida before dropping a
5-2 decision to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday night. The Sharks are among the better road teams in
the league, their 7-3-1 record being better than their home record this season
(7-6-1). They have not lost consecutive
road games yet this season, although they are in jeopardy of doing that for the
first time when they face the Caps on Monday.
Logan Couture leads the Sharks in goals (13) and points (21)
overall, and he leads the club in road goals (6) and points (10). While that road scoring line does not look
especially impressive at first glance (he ranks tied for 60th in
points in the league in road scoring), those ten points have come in just 11
road games, the Sharks having played the fewest road contests in the Western
Conference (Ottawa (10) and the New York Rangers (8) have played fewer in the
East through Saturday). With 13 goals in
25 games overall, Couture seems well on his way to posting his seventh 20-goal
season in as many full seasons (he played 25 games and had five goals in his
first NHL season, and in 2015-2016 he had 15 goals in 52 games in a season cut
short with a fractured leg and a lower body injury). If there is an odd Couture fact this season
it is that he does not have a point in the four games in which he logged more
than 20 minutes of ice time. Couture is
4-6-10, plus-2, in 11 career games against Washington.
Brent Burns is a perennial among Shark scoring leaders from
the blue line, but Justin Braun might be a bit of a surprise as the
second-leading scorer among San Jose defensemen (1-9-10). His plus-7 is tied with Marc-Edouard Vlasic
for the team lead in that group. He
would seem to be on a pace to top his career bests in assists (22 in 2014-2015)
and points (23 in that season and the 2015-2016 season), and he could top his
career-best of plus-19 in the 2013-2014 season.
That career started in unremarkable fashion as a seventh-round (201st
overall) draft pick by the Sharks in 2007.
It would be three more seasons before he had his first taste of NHL
action, getting 28 games in the 2010-2011 season. Since then, only once in eight seasons,
including this one, did he fail to reach double digits in points, going 0-7-7,
minus-5, in 41 games of the abbreviated 2012-2013 season. Braun is 0-1-1, plus-3, in nine career games
against the Caps.
Martin Jones gets little in the way of Vezina finalist love,
but he has been just fine backstopping the Sharks. The numbers are more solid than elite for
Jones in three years with the Sharks, his 2.32 goals against average ranking 11th
among 54 goalies with at least 2,500 minutes played over that span and his .916
save percentage ranking 18th.
He is one of 11 goalies in that group with at least ten shutouts over
the last three seasons, which would be more than Henrik Lundqvist (8) or Pekka
Rinne (7). This season he ranks fourth
in GAA among 37 goalies with at least 500 minutes logged, and his .926 save
percentage ranks seventh through Saturday’s games. His road numbers are even better, a 2.07
goals against average and a .937 save percentage. Of particular relevance to this game, Jones
has shut out the Caps in each of his last two appearances against the team in
Washington, the only goalie over the past three seasons with two shutouts
against the Caps in Washington. He is
4-0-0, 1.00, .963, with those two shutouts in four career appearances against
the Capitals.
1. San Jose is quite
adept at clamping down on opposing offenses.
The 29.7 shots on goal allowed per game is second-best in the league,
while their 52.79 percent shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 ranks fourth in the
league through Saturday’s games.
2. The Sharks are
also disciplined within the rules. They
have been whistled for 90 penalties this season, fourth-fewest in the league,
and their two major penalties are tied for fewest in the league. They have only one fighting major (Joe
Pavelski, of all people), fewest in the league.
3. San Jose blankets
teams early. They have allowed just 18
first period goals this season, tied with the St. Louis Blues for third-fewest
in the league. They are not bad late,
either, allowing just 16 third period goals, second-fewest in the league (Los
Angeles: 12).
4. The defense helps
the Sharks dominate opponents on the scoreboard, their six wins by three or
more goals tied for fourth-most in the league.
They have a 6-3 record in such games.
5. If there is an odd
feature to the Sharks’ behavior early in games, it is their comparatively
ordinary record when scoring first. Their 9-5-1 record in such games ranks 22nd
in winning percentage (.600).
1. Braden Holtby is
fourth in the league in save percentage on home ice (.935) among 37 goalies
appearing in at least five home contests.
2. The Caps have
three players in double-digits in home scoring so far: Evgeny Kuznetsov
(5-10-15), Alex Ovechkin (9-2-11), and John Carlson (2-9-11). Lars Eller has nine points, and both Nicklas
Backstrom and T.J. Oshie have eight to be next in line.
3. Plus-minus might
not be the most informative statistic on its own, but it can be an odd
one. Jakub Vrana and Brooks Orpik lead
the team in home plus-minus at plus-7 apiece.
Andre Burakovsky, who hasn’t played a home game since October 21st,
is a team-worst minus-3 on home ice.
4. The Caps have not
done a very good job coming back in games late.
Their 1-9-0 record in games in which they trail after two periods is the
sixth-worst in the league. Not that last
season was much better, despite the much better overall record. The Caps were 3-14-5 in such games last
season, 19th in winning percentage (.136).
5. A win on Monday
would be the Caps’ tenth on home ice this season, making them (pending results
of other games) the fourth team in the East to hit double digits in home
wins. The Rangers lead the East with 11
home wins.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
San Jose: Brent Burns
Last season, Brent Burns recorded 29 goals, the most goals
by a defenseman since Mike Green recorded 31 goals for the Caps in the
2008-2009 season. Over the previous four
seasons, Burns recorded more than 20 goals four times and averaged 23.8 goals
per season. No defenseman came close to
the 95 goals he recorded over the previous four seasons (Shea Weber had
75). So far this season, the defending
Norris Trophy winner has one goal in 25 games, that one coming on November 24th
in a 5-4 overtime loss to the Vegas Golden Knights. It is not as if his shooting frequency is
off. Burns is averaging 3.92 shots per
game this season compared to 3.90 shots per game last season when he led the
league in shots on goal with 320 (he is seventh this season with 98). And on a team that does well in possession
numbers overall, Burns is part of the pack among Shark defensemen, ranking
fourth among the six defensemen having appeared in at least 15 games (55.49
percent) in shot attempts-for at 5-on-5.
He is 6-9-15, plus-3, in 14 career games against Washington.
Washington: Dmitry
Orlov
A lot of Capitals have had their frustrations against the
San Jose Sharks, and Dmitry Orlov is no exception. That frustration has spread, to an extent, to
his overall production so far this season.
After posting a career year last season (6-27-33, plus-30) in 82 games,
he is just 2-5-7, plus-1, in 27 games so far this season, despite playing a
career high 23:30 a game in ice time (he averaged 19:36 in 2013-2014). Those
two goals do happen to be tied for the team lead among defensemen (John Carlson
and Christian Djoos being the others).
And, both of his goals and three of his five assists are on home ice, with
a plus-2 in 14 games on Capital One Arena ice, so there is that going for him. What he has not had, like a lot of his
teammates, is much in the way of success against the Sharks. Orlov is 1-0-1, minus-6, in eight career
games against San Jose.
In the end…
If the games against the Kings and Blue Jackets last week
were, even if head coach Barry Trotz hates the term, “measuring sticks” for the
Caps, the game against the San Jose Sharks on Monday is one of a different sort. This is a club that the Caps can’t beat when
they stink (0-2-1 when the Caps were coming out of the 2004-20015 lockout and
still rebuilding), when they are competitive (3-5-2 between October 2009 and
February 2013), or when they are dominant (0-4-0 over the last two seasons,
ones in which the Caps won the Presidents Trophy for the best regular season
record in the league). That they are
3-7-3 in 17 games against the Sharks since the 2004-2005 lockout (two of the
wins in extra time) – 1-4-3 on home ice – speaks to more than a little
frustration. Win this game, and perhaps
this Caps team has a little more resemblance to teams of the past few years
than fans might have thought.
Capitals 3 – Sharks 2
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