Record: 3-1-0
Week 15 made it 12 straight weeks without a sub-.500 week in
terms of standings points earned. Over
that time, the Caps are 24-10-2, a 114-point pace over a full season. It is not the pace the Tampa Bay Lightning
are on (121 points), but it is quite impressive, given where many folks (us
included) thought the Caps would be by this point of the season (generally
fighting for a playoff spot). It was the
fourth time in the last eight weeks that the Caps had a three-win week.
The loss on the week’s record was noteworthy for its ending
a pair of impressive streaks of their own.
The 3-1 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes ended a ten-game home winning
streak and a five-game overall winning streak, both of which are highs for the
Caps this season.
Still, the Caps ended the week having put more space between
themselves and the rest of the Metropolitan Division. At the start of the week, the Caps had a
two-point lead on the New Jersey Devils, who were heading into a bye-week of
their own. By week’s end, the Caps had
opened up a seven-point lead on the mostly idle Devils (they lost to the New
York Islanders in a Gimmick in their only game of the week), and they had a
six-point lead on the new second-place team in the division, the Columbus Blue
Jackets. When the Caps finished play for
the week on Friday night, they had the biggest lead any team has had in the
division this season.
Offense: 3.00 /game (season: 3.04 /game, rank: 11th)
The goal grouping for the Caps was rather tight in Week
15. Only seven players shared in the 12
goals scored over four games, and three players had eight of them – Brett
Connolly, Alex Ovechkin, and Lars Eller.
If you are thinking Ovechkin led the group, you would be mistaken. Eller had a goal in each of the four games of
the week for a total of four (Ovechkin and Connolly had two apiece). Eller had an uncommon week in another
respect. He had 11 shots on goal in four
games, a significant number for a player who came into the week with just 75
shots on goal in 40 previous games.
The Caps had 13 skaters share in the points for the week,
the group led by Ovechkin (2-4-6). The
four assists are particularly interesting in that they extended a run in which
he has seven helpers in his last six games.
That brought him to within two assists of 500 for his career. A player who did reach a milestone was John
Carlson, who recorded his 300th NHL point when he set up Alex
Ovechkin for a goal in the Caps’ 4-3 win over Carolina to end the week.
There was another noteworthy goal of the week. Jay Beagle scored the game-winning goal in
the Caps’ 4-3 win over the Carolina Hurricanes to end the week with just 1.3
seconds left in regulation time. And as
Caps fans know, when Jay Beagle scores a goal, the Caps win. They are now 39-1-5 in the 45 career games in
which Beagle scored a goal. The Caps are
a perfect 5-0-0 this year in games Beagle had a goal.
Defense: 2.50 / game (season: 2.80 /game, rank: 15th)
Too many shots. The
Caps dodged a bullet this week, allowing the four opponents a total of 144
shots, an average of 36.0 per game. It
extended the streak of games allowing 30 or more shots to five, and the Caps
have now allowed 30 or more shots in seven of their last eight games, averaging
35.0 shots allowed per game. Moreover,
the Caps have been outshot in 11 of their last 13 games and allowed as many
shots as they took in one other. Over
the four games this week, the Caps allowed shots on goal in bunches. In the 12 regulation periods they allowed ten
or more in eight, and the allowed a whopping 15 or more in four periods.
If there was an odd part of this it was in the Caps
finishing the week with a shots-for percentage at 5-on-5 of 49.04, higher than
one might think would be the case with the shots tipped toward the opponents as
much as they were.
The Caps also had their challenges holding leads. Five times in Week 15 they took a lead, and
three times they lost it. When one also
accounts for the fact that the fifth lead was taken with only 1.3 seconds left
in the last game of the week, it was not a good week for holding leads. The defense was saved for the week by…
Goaltending: 2.23 / .937 (season: 2.64 / .917 / 1 shutout)
The goaltenders had a fine week. Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer split the
work, each getting two games, Holtby finishing with a little less than two
minutes more of ice time. Holtby had a
solid week with a .924 save percentage off of 61 saves on 66 shots faced. It would have been better had the Caps not
been sloppy on a power play against Carolina in the third game of the week,
allowing Jordan Staal to gobble up a turnover and score on a breakaway. What was a bit concerning, though, was the
manner in which his save percentages progressed, period to period. He stopped all 17 first period shots he faced
in his two games, but he was 29 for 32 (.906) in the second periods of games
and 13-for-15 (.867) in the third periods of the two games. He stopped both overtime shots he faced in
the Caps’ 4-3 win over St. Louis to open the week.
Philiipp Grubauer had a superb week in the face of a heavy
shot load. He stopped 73 of 77 shots
(.948 save percentage) and, in the reverse of Holtby’s week, saw his save
percentages improve over the periods. He
stopped 22 of 24 first period shots (.917), 21 of 22 second period shots
(.955), and 30 of 31 third period shots (.968).
His week served as further evidence that he has returned to last
season’s form after a slow start to this season. In his last seven appearances through Week
15, he is 4-0-2, 1.33, .957, with one shutout.
Since he embarked on this fine run of appearances back on November 24th,
Grubauer leads all 54 goaltenders with at least 250 minutes played in goals
against average (1.33) and save percentage (.957).
Power Play: 3-for-13/ 23.1 percent (season: 19.6 percent,
rank: 13th)
Three goals on 13 chances is a decent week. Only twice this season have the Caps recorded
more power play goals in a week (four in Week 7, five in Week 2). Not that there weren’t a couple of curious
wrinkles. Yes, Alex Ovechkin had one of
the power play goals, but there were Brett Connolly and Lars Eller getting one
apiece as well, Eller’s being his first man advantage goal of the season.
Ovechkin had two assists on the power play for the week,
allowing him to figure in the scoring for each of the three goals. He was one of six Caps to record power play
points for the week, John Carlson adding a pair of assists, Nicklas Backstrom
with an assist, and Jakub Vrana with a helper in addition to the goal scorers.
The Caps were effective on the man advantage with their
three goals on 13 chances, but they were not particularly efficient in terms of
putting goals on net on the power play.
In 22:24 of power play ice time for the week they managed 16 shots on
goal. Ovechkin led the team with five
power play shots. In the unusual, Brett
Connolly had three to finish next in line, making the most of his 8:02 of total
ice time for the week.
The disappoint part of the power play in an overall sense
was allowing a shorthanded goal to Carolina in the third game of the week. It was the sixth shorthanded goal allowed by
the Caps this season, tied for fifth-most in the league.
Penalty Killing: 7-for-11 / 63.6 percent (season: 79.1
percent, rank: 23rd)
Half the goals allowed by the Caps in Week 15 came on
special teams. There was the
aforementioned shorthanded goal, and there were the four power play goals
allowed. It was the most power play
goals surrendered in any week since the Caps allowed four on 15 chances in Week
7. Only in Week 2, when they allowed six
power play goals on 17 chances, have the Caps allowed more in a single week
this season.
Here again, too many shots.
Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer stopped 17 of 21 shots, and while the
.810 save percentage leaves a lot of room for improvement, those 21 shots on
goal were allowed in just 14:58 of shorthanded ice time. Carolina was especially effective getting
shots to the net on their power play, scoring two power play goals on 14 shots
on goal in just 7:22 of man advantage ice time in their two games against the
Caps this week.
Faceoffs: 118-for-238 / 49.6 percent (season: 51.1 percent,
rank: 11th)
For a team that finished the week one draw under 50 percent,
there was a fair amount going on in the circle.
Not least of it was Jay Beagle getting (for him) smoked on offensive
zone draws, finishing with just five wins on 15 o-zone faceoffs. It was part of a weak week overall on
offensive zone draws, the team winning just 37 of 88 faceoffs (42.0 percent).
As bad as the Caps were in the offensive end, they were that
good in the defensive end, winning 44 of 76 faceoffs (57.9 percent). In fact, no Capitals taking more than one
defensive draw for the week finished under 50 percent. Lars Eller added another dimension to a fine
week by winning 12 of 18 defensive zone faceoffs (66.7 percent).
All in all, four of the five Caps taking at least ten draws
overall for the week finished at 50 percent or better: Nicklas Backstrom
(33-for-66/50.0 percent), Eller (24-for-46/52.2 percent), T.J. Oshie
(9-for-14/64.3 percent), and Beagle (27-for-51/52.9 percent). Only Evgeny Kuznetsov in that group was under
50 percent (22-for-29/44.9 percent).
Goals by Period:
On the offensive side of the ledger, the Caps expressed a
measure of balance in the way they scored goals across the periods. The odd part about the Caps scoring four
first period goals is that the Caps surrendered the game’s first goal in three
of the four games for the week. Scoring first only in the 4-3 overtime win over
St. Louis to open the week.
It was the third period on the defensive side that posed a
problem for the Caps in Week 15. Against
St. Louis they allowed a third period goal to tie the game and send it to
overtime. They allowed the game-winner
and an empty net goal to Carolina in a 3-1 loss. They allowed one the following night to the
Hurricanes to take a 3-2 lead before coming back to tie, and then to win the
game late.
In the end…
The Caps were more than the sum of their parts in Week
15. Their special teams had their
adventures, they allowed too many chances late in games that turned into leads
for the opponents, and they allowed far too many shots, even if you subscribe
to the “shot quality” theory of defense.
And if you go back above and look at their league rankings in a variety
of statistical categories, you might be left asking yourself, “how is it that
the Caps have the third-best record in the league?”
If you look at the week as half-full, instead of half-empty, there was the 5-on-5 goal differential, the Caps doubling up on opponents by an 8-4 margin. But even there, the Caps’ 5-on-5 goals for/against ratio of 1.17 for the season overall is just seventh in the league, and their possession numbers are, well, not good, just 22nd in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (48.38). Plainly put, they are doing it with efficiency of dubious sustainability. Their shooting plus save percentage at 5-on-5 (1023) is second in the league.
If you look at the week as half-full, instead of half-empty, there was the 5-on-5 goal differential, the Caps doubling up on opponents by an 8-4 margin. But even there, the Caps’ 5-on-5 goals for/against ratio of 1.17 for the season overall is just seventh in the league, and their possession numbers are, well, not good, just 22nd in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (48.38). Plainly put, they are doing it with efficiency of dubious sustainability. Their shooting plus save percentage at 5-on-5 (1023) is second in the league.
Now they get a week (actually, five full days) off before
they resume their schedule against New Jersey next Thursday. Even with that, the Caps are in the midst of
a very light part of the season schedule.
From the end of their 4-3 win over Carolina until they face the
Philadelphia Flyers on the last day of the month, the Caps will play only four
games over an 18-day period. That is an
opportunity for a lot of rust to accumulate, and it will be something to watch
for going forward. But the Caps did pad
their division lead with a good week in Week 15, a reason why even mid-season
games have meaning.
Three Stars:
- First Star: Lars Eller (4-0-4, plus-4, goals in all four games, GWG goal, 11 shots on goal, 19 shot attempts, 52.2 percent faceoffs)
- Second Star: Philipp Grubauer (2-0-0, 2.00, .948)
- Third Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-4-6, minus-1, 1 power play goal, 12 shots on goal, 35 shot attempts)
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