The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals wrap up their four-game road trip
with a matinee meeting in Buffalo against the Sabres on Monday. And when the Capitals wake up to face the new
day, they will be looking up at a team in the Metropolitan Division standings
for the first time since December 29th.
The Pittsburgh Penguins passed the Caps in the Metro
standings on Sunday night, the first team other than the Caps to occupy the top
spot in the division since the New Jersey Devils sat atop the division on
December 29th, but the Caps have the opportunity to reclaim that
spot with a win in Buffalo.
The Caps will be facing a team that, in its own context, is
on something of a good run. Buffalo is
3-1-2 over their last six games. They
have done it largely with a consistent offense, scoring four or more goals in
four straight games before they were held to a pair each of their last two games, a 3-2 overtime loss to
the Ottawa Senators on Thursday and a 4-2 loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday.
It was an improvement for the Sabres, who still bring the
league’s worst scoring offense into this game.
From that dim background, Jack Eichel shines. Although Connor McDavid gets almost all the
ink reporting on the 2015 draft class, it is Eichel who leads that class in
goals scored (70 to 69 for McDavid through Saturday). He has 22 of those goals this season, two
behind his career high of 24 set in each of his first two seasons in the
NHL. He has displayed an odd habit of
scoring goals in consecutive games this season.
Five times this season he recorded goals in consecutive games, but he
does not have a three-game streak. He
will not have one if he scores against the Caps, his latest two-game streak
stopped when he was held without one in a 4-2 win over the Boston Bruins on
February 10th. That was the
result of his skating only 3:55 against the Bruins before sustaining a
high-ankle sprain that has kept him out of the lineup since then. He is listed as day-to-day, but the injury is reported to be serious enough to keep him out of the lineup for some time to
come.
In Eichel’s absence the goal scoring load falls largely to
Evander Kane, second on the club with 18 goals this season. Kane has been a 20-goal scorer in each of his
two previous seasons with Buffalo (28 last season, 20 in 2015-2016), and he seems
assured of hitting that mark again this season.
Provided he is not moved at the trading deadline, that is. Kane is an unrestricted free agent after this
season, and he is one of those players of whom reports concentrate these days
on potential destinations as much as his performance with his current team.
Kane was mired in a 14-game streak without a goal until he scored in
consecutive games against Boston and Colorado.
However, he is without a goal in his last three games heading into this
game with Washington. It matters,
because the Sabres have at least a fighting chance when he lights the
lamp. Buffalo is 7-6-2 in the 15 games
in which he has goals this season. Kane
is 13-6-19, minus-2, in 28 career games against the Caps.
Rasmus Ristolainen is in his fifth season on the Sabres’
blue line, and he is already 15th in franchise history in points
scored by a defensemen. He is no
immediate threat to the player at the top of that ranking (Phil Housley with
558 points), but he has 136 career points heading into this game, including
more than 40 in each of the past two seasons.
He has been on an extended run, going 4-12-16 in 20 games since the
start of the new year, tied for fourth among all defensemen in points over that
span. Most of his production has come on
the Sabres’ power play, 14 of his 27 points this season coming with the man
advantage. Ristolainen is 0-4-4,
minus-2, in nine career games against the Capitals.
1. Buffalo was last
in the postseason in 2011. Since then,
they are 189-259-69, the worst record among
the 30 franchises playing over that span of seasons, and they have gone
through five coaches: Lindy Ruff, Ron Rolston, Ted Nolan, Dan Bylsma, and
current head coach Phil Housley.
2. That Buffalo is
last in the league in scoring offense should be no surprise. They are last in scoring offense among all of
those same 30 teams over the same span of years since they last made the
playoffs (2.26 goals per game).
3. This season, the
Sabres’ problem is getting off to decent starts. They have only 29 first period goals scored
in 59 games, last in the league by a healthy margin (St. Louis has 36 first
period goals in 60 games).
4. Overtime has not
been kind to Buffalo, either. The Sabres
have allowed ten goals in the extra session, most in the league.
5. Like most teams, leading
after two periods is a pretty good indicator of success for Buffalo. They have not lost a game in regulation when
doing so (12-0-5). However, if they are
not leading at the second intermission, the outlook is bleak. They are 5-31-6 when tied or trailing after
40 minutes.
1. The seven goals
allowed by the Caps against the Blackhawks was the third time this season they
allowed seven or more goals, the first time they did so against a team not in
Pennsylvania (eight in an 8-2 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on October 14th,
and seven in a 7-4 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins on February 2nd).
2. The Caps would do
better to take leads into the first intermission. Only Toronto (22) and Winnipeg (20) have more
wins when leading after one period than the Caps (19).
3. Washington is
9-5-4 in the 2018 portion of the season to date. That is good for 16th best record
in the league over that span. But after
winning their first three games of the new year they are just 6-5-4.
4. Their possession
rankings are even worse. Only the Ottawa
Senators (44.27 percent) and New York Islanders (43.88 percent) have worse shot
attempts-for percentages at than the Caps (45.77 percent) since the calendar
turned over. It is their “PDO” keeping
them afloat (shooting plus save percentages).
At 1028, their PDO is second in the league (Colorado: 1033).
5. That the Caps no
longer find themselves, at least for the moment, at the top of their division is
odd. Seven times in the previous ten
seasons they finished at the top of their division, five times in the Southeast
and twice in the Metropolitan.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Buffalo: Robin Lehner
No goalie has lost more games this season than Buffalo’s
Robin Lehner (30 – 22 in regulation and eight in extra time). One might say it is a reflection of being a
bad goaltender, but that would not be fair to Lehner. Buffalo goalies get little goal support, and
Lehner is facing almost 33 shots per 60 minutes. The fact is, his numbers rather resemble
those of the Caps’ Braden Holtby. His
goals against average is 2.95 (Holtby’s is 2.92), and his save percentage is
.910 (Holtby’s is .911). And, he has
three shutouts, while Holtby has yet to record one this season. He has been substantially better on home ice
with a 2.66 goals against average and a .916 save percentage. If there is a problem, it is in how his
numbers have deteriorated in his three seasons in Buffalo after spending his
first five NHL seasons with the Ottawa Senators. His goals against averages have gone from
2.47 to 2.68 to 2.92 this season, while his save percentage has gone from .924
to .920 to .910 this season. Lehner is
1-2-1, 2.25, .922, in four career games against Washington.
Washington: Brooks Orpik
Plus-minus is not a very good statistic on its own, but let’s
start there with Brooks Orpik. He is
minus-8 on the season, worst among the Capitals’ defensemen and his worst
individual plus-minus since his rookie season (second in the league) when he
was minus-36 with the Pittsburgh Penguins.
He is in jeopardy of finishing in minus territory for only the second
time in his last 12 seasons. The odd
part of it, at least on the surface, is that his plus-minus tracks with his ice
time. In 30 games in which he skated
less than 20 minutes he is minus-8, while he is even in the 27 games in which
he skated more than 20 minutes. One can
reason this away in thinking that as a defensive defenseman, he is not going to
get a lot of late ice time in games in which the Caps are trailing. And he has had quite a home-road difference
in this number, going minus-16 in road games and plus-8 at home. But he does not come upon these numbers
accidentally, either. Of 212 defensemen
to appear in at least 25 games so far this season, his shot attempts-for
percentage on ice (43.31 percent) ranks 205th. His frequent partner, Madison Bowey, ranks
200th in that group (44.61 percent).
It is a situation that has not prohibited the Caps from enjoying success
so far this season, but unless it – and he – improves these numbers, it is hard
to see how the Caps go deep in the postseason.
Orpik is 0-8-8, plus-2, in 42 career games against the Sabres.
In the end…
The Caps could end their longest remaining road trip of the
season with a 2-1-1 record. In the
bigger scheme of things, this is not a bad result. But how they get there matters. There was the late-game collapse against
Winnipeg and not showing up against a struggling Chicago Blackhawks team that
left three points on the table. It is
not unreasonable to think that under the circumstances, the Caps should be
playing for a road sweep instead of fighting to stay above water for the trip.
The Caps seem oddly disengaged at the moment. This might be – finally – the effect of
having things a bit too easy in the regular season the past two-and-a-half
seasons, and focus could be wavering. Just as
it is that momentum, once lost, is hard to regain, one wonders if a team’s
focus, once it goes wandering, can be sharpened again in time for the stretch
run and the postseason. This is the task
at hand for the Caps as they wrap up their road trip and head into the home
stretch.
Capitals 5 – Sabres 2
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