Record: 2-2-0
Week 21 was the second straight break-even week for the
Caps, standings points-wise. It is the
first time that the Caps failed to post winning records in consecutive weeks
since Weeks 2 -4, when they posted an aggregate record of 3-5-1.
The win against Buffalo to close the week was particularly
welcome. After posting ten straight wins
on home ice from the beginning of December through January 9th, the
Caps went into their game on Saturday against the Sabres with a 2-4-2 record in
eight games at Capital One Arena.
It is part of a difficult February for the Caps in which
they are just 5-5-2 going into the last week of the month. Compare that to last season when the Caps
were 9-2-1 in February, and it appears that last year’s team that was starting
its finishing kick to the end of a superb season is struggling this month with
focus, fatigue, and the ability to finish.
Offense: 3.00 /game (season: 3.08 /game, rank: 9th)
Three goals per game is a pretty good week, but it was eight
goals in two games against the struggling Sabres and four in the two games against
the Florida teams. It is one thing to be
held to two goals by the Tampa Bay Lightning, who feature a likely Vezina
Trophy finalist in Andrei Vasilevkiy in goal, but even with Roberto Luongo in
net for the Panthers – a long-time Capitals nemesis – Florida is the 25th-ranked
team in the league in scoring defense that doesn’t make it easy on their goaltenders,
allowing the second highest average of shots against per game in the league. If you are going to use one word to describe
the week on offense at the team level, it might be “mixed.”
At the individual level, the descriptive term might be “concentrated.” Only five Capitals recorded goals. Alex Ovechkin had four of them to lead the
club for the week. It is part of a
longer run for the league leader in which he has six goals in his last eight
games. Lars Eller was next in line with
three goals for the week, finishing the week with goals in each of the last
three games. It is the second time in
the 2018 portion of the season that Eller has compiled a goal-scoring streak of
at least three games (he had a four-game streak from January 7th
through January 12th).
Andre Burakovsky and Evgeny Kuznetsov each had a pair of
goals in Week 21, and each of them scored a game-winner among those goals. Burakovsky seems to be working his way out of
a season-long funk. He is 5-4-9 over his
last 13 games. Kuznetsov ended the week
with a bang, going 1-3-4 against Buffalo to finish the week tied with Ovechkin
as the points leader (five). It was
Kuznetsov’s fifth career game with four or more points and his second this
season.
Defense: 2.50 / game (season: 2.95 /game, rank: 18th)
Strange week on defense.
The shots-allowed problem was reflected in the week’s road games, the
Caps allowing the Sabres 34 shots on goal in the 3-2 win to open the week and
the Florida Panthers 33 shots in the 3-2 loss on Thursday. However, they did hold the Sabres under 30 to
end the week (29), and they held the Tampa Bay Lighting to just 19 shots on
goal – a season-low in shots allowed – in a 4-2 loss. It was only the fourth time since the
2004-2005 dark season that the Caps held a team to fewer than 20 shots but
allowed four or more goals in a game on home ice.
What made is a bit more strange was how the shots allowed
broke down by opponent and period. In
two games against the Sabres, the Caps allowed a total of 63 shots on
goal. Almost half of those (28) were
allowed in the third periods of the two games.
A more effective offense than that of the Sabres (last in the league in
scoring offense) might have made things a bit more difficult for the Capitals.
Of 16 teams that played four games this week, the Caps had
the sixth-fewest shot attempts against at 5-on-5. This led to a shot attempts-for percentage of
54.21 at 5-on-5, the fifth-best mark of the week. The Caps were especially effective in tied
(62.30 percent/third) and close (58.02 percent/second) situations.
Goaltending: 2.53 / .913 (season: 2.82 / .912 / 1 shutout)
Overall it was an average sort of week. Overall.
By the end of it, the favorite bar discussion, “winter version,” was
underway. In Washington, like a lot of
towns, there is often a fan debate over whether the backup quarterback should
be starting for the local NFL franchise.
In hockey, that discussion is reserved for goaltenders, and the
performances of Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer in Week 21 provided
ammunition for those thinking Grubauer should be getting more time, if not
replace Holtby at the top of the depth chart.
But before we get too carried away here, yes, Grubauer had a
good week – the better week of the two, in fact. He stopped 60 of 63 shots he faced (.952 save
percentage), all of the goals he allowed coming in the third periods of games
when he faced 28 of the 63-shot total.
The flip side of that is he faced the worst team in the league in
scoring offense – twice. And that team,
the Buffalo Sabres, was missing its top goal scorer in Jack Eichel – twice. This is not to demean Grubauer’s performance.
No NHL team can be taken lightly,
Grubauer gave the Sabres little reason to believe they could take any
advantage. But it should temper, a bit,
the conversation about who should be the number one goaltender.
As for the number one contender, it is rather clear at this
point that Braden Holtby is in a slump.
His 3.58 goals against average for the week and .865 save percentage is
part of a longer slump in which he is 2-4-2, 4.28, .880 in his last eight
appearances, two of which he was relieved by Grubauer. His two losses in Week 21 brought his
personal losing streak to five games (0-3-2), and in four of them he allowed
four or more goals. Even in the one game
in which he did not, allowing three goals to the Florida Panthers, he allowed
two goals in the last 3:52 of regulation (one on a power play) to turn a 2-1
lead to protect into a 3-2 loss. Fair or
not, and Holtby has been a victim of iffy support in front of him this season,
he is the goalie of record in that streak, and it is not a good record.
Power Play: 3-for-7 / 42.9 percent (season: 21.7 percent,
rank: 7th)
It was a good week with the man advantage. Pity there weren’t more opportunities to
flaunt it. Seven chances in a week with
four games is the fewest in a four-game week since Week 11 when the Caps also
had seven power play opportunities.
Nevertheless, the last time the Caps had more than three power plays in
a week was in Week 7, when they went 4-for-16 in four games.
Alex Ovechkin, Lars Eller, and Andre Burakovsky had the
goals, and seven different Caps had power play points, Ovechkin the only player
with two power play points for the week.
This was the fifth straight week in which the Caps finished
over 20 percent on the power play (12-for-38/31.6 percent). The power play was quite efficient in Week
21, scoring those three goals on 12 shots in 10:55 of power play time and
allowing only one shorthanded shot on goal, that to the Panthers in the 3-2
loss on Thursday.
Penalty Killing: 9-for-11 / 81.8 percent (season: 80.0
percent, rank: 17th)
A good, if not great week killing penalties that was a
little off from the previous two weeks. And here, too, the split was between Buffalo
(5-for-5 in the two games) and the Florida teams (4-for-6, one goal allowed to
each team). It wasn’t a very surprising
result, given that the Sabres finished the week ranked 25th on the
power play.
The timing of the power play goals allowing was crushing,
though. One was given up in the third
minute of the Caps’ game against Tampa Bay, putting them in a hole that only
got deeper when the Lightning sped out to a 3-0 first period lead in a 4-2 win
over the Caps. The other was even more
of a gut-punch, coming with less than 30 seconds left in a 2-2 game and barely
three minutes after the Florida Panthers tied the Caps, using that late power
play goal to sneak out with a 3-2 win.
It was a better week in terms of efficiency. The Caps allowed their four opponents those
two goals on just nine shots allowed in 19:19 of shorthanded ice time.
Faceoffs: 117-for-242 / 48.3 percent (season: 50.1 percent,
rank: 17th)
Week 21 was almost an exact replica of Week 20 overall (one
fewer win, two fewer losses). Things
were not quite as good, though, looking at zone efficiency. The Caps were under 50 percent in both the
offensive (46.5 percent) and defensive (47.9 percent) zones for the week. That outcome was the product of one poor
performance in one game, albeit in different games. The Caps were just 9-for-23 in the offensive
zone in the 5-1 win over Buffalo to end the week, and they were 3-for-10 in the
4-2 loss to Tampa Bay in the second game of the week.
On an individual level, five players finished the week with
at least ten draws taken, four of them – Nicklas Backstrom (52.7), Lars Eller
(52.1), Jay Beagle (50.0), and T.J. Oshie (60.0) finishing at 50 percent or
better. Evgeny Kuznetsov managed to win
barely 40 percent of his draws for the week (40.5).
Goals by Period:
One first period and one third period. That was the story for the week in goals by
period. Three first period goals allowed
against Tampa Bay and two late third period goals allowed against the Florida
Panthers, and there you have the two losses for the week.
It certainly fit a pattern, the Caps allowing goals in only
the first or third period in Week 21.
The Caps dominated the second periods of play, outscoring opponents by a
5-0 margin over the four games.
Washington has seen their third period scoring defense deteriorate to
the point where they now have a minus goal differential in third periods this season
and are tied with the Blues for 23rd in fewest third period goals
allowed (68).
In the end…
Perhaps it was a bit much to expect the Caps to have a big
middle portion of the season. Last year
they went 30-6-4 over a 40-game stretch from December 5th through
March 4th. The previous season
they went 32-5-3 in a 40-game stretch from November 21st through February
22nd. Right now, the Caps are
13-8-6 in 27 games since December 22nd. If you are looking for a silver lining, the
Penguins were 12-8-3 over a 23-game stretch from January 11th
through March 1st before going on to win the Stanley Cup. The Caps are in a mid-season fog, but there
is nothing to say it cannot clear in time for a successful stretch run and
postseason. Then again, it could linger
if the Caps can’t find a way to solve lingering defensive problems and/or have
trouble negotiating a difficult schedule over the remainder of the season.
The week ahead will have its challenges – a back-to-back set
of games against Columbus and Ottawa, followed by the outdoor game against
Toronto at the Naval Academy on Saturday.
And, there is the trading deadline on Monday. Eastern competition is already stacking up
there, with the Penguins obtaining Derick Brassard and the Bruins picking up
Rick Nash. The Caps have added a pair of
defensemen who might best be described as third-pair types, and whether that
will be enough to plug holes on the back end will be something to watch going
forward.
Three Stars:
- First Star: Alex Ovechkin (4-1-5, minus-1, 1 PPG, 28 shots on goal, 53 shot attempts, six hits)
- Second Star: Philipp Grubauer (2-0-0, 1.50, .952)
- Third Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (2-3-5, plus-5, 1 GWG, 13 shots on goal, 16 shot attempts)
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