It’s time for the Peerless to proffer his prodigious
prognotos for the 2018-2019 season, and we start with the Atlantic Division...
1. Tampa Bay
Lightning
The Bolts will be the early season favorites to “WIN IT
ALL!” Then again, they were an early
season favorite last season, too. They
did set a franchise record for wins (54) and points (113) last season. But they limped into the postseason with a
6-6-1 record in their last 13 games of the regular season. They looked impressive in the first two
rounds of the playoffs, dispatching the New Jersey Devils and Boston Bruins
with five-game series wins against both.
They had the Eastern Conference Final on their racket in Game 6 against
the Washington Capitals, but then they failed to record a single goal in Games
6 and 7 to bow out to the eventual Stanley Cup champs. Bummer.
Why they will go far… Tampa Bay has arguably the best and deepest forward group in the league. They have the defending Norris Trophy winner (top defenseman) in Victor
Hedman. They have a still improving
goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy. To the extent the Lightning have issues, they are of the sort that top-shelf
contenders have – who plays on the bottom defensive pair, how the bottom six forwards sort out.
If any team in the league resembles the Caps in terms of year-to-year
stability, it’s this one.
Why they will come up short… How the Lightning ultimately
lost last season was confounding. This
was a team that was shut out only once in the regular season (a 3-0 loss to
Boston in March, for those of you scoring at home), and in the playoffs they
were not shutout in any of their first 15 games until they were blanked twice
by the Caps in Games 6 and 7 of the Eastern final. In each of the Caps’ four wins in that series
they held Tampa Bay to two or fewer goals.
Will this late swoon have a hangover effect? Will teams scour films of that game to find
ways to stop the deep Lightning offense?
And Vasilevskiy, who allowed 23 goals in the seven games to the Caps,
needs to demonstrate he has the stamina to finish what he starts in terms of a
solid season. There is also the matter
of the front office, where Steve Yzerman stepped away from his position as general
manager in September to become a “senior adviser” in the organization. Assistant GM Julien Brisebois steps into that
position, and he has long been thought of as a GM in waiting, but there is that
uncertainty with a new manager and how his in-season moves will work out.
2. Toronto Maple
Leafs
If Tampa Bay is the “old school” choice as the top team in
the Atlantic, if not the East (or even the league), the Toronto Maple Leafs are
the “young guns” favorite. And they are
still young. The trio of Auston
Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander combined for 76 goals last season,
and of the group Nylander was the oldest at 21 (although he is in the midst of a contract dispute). And it’s not as if Nazem Kadri, who
added 32 goals, is a graybeard; he was just 27.
They looked a bit discombobulated early in their first round series
against Boston last spring, falling into a 3-1 hole, largely because they
couldn’t score (they couldn’t stop pucks, either, but that is another
matter). They scratched their way back
to tie the series, and they took a lead into the third period of Game 7. However, Boston scored early in the last
frame to tie the game, and then they added three more goals to win going
away. Youth, apparently, is not always
served.
Why they will go far… How many teams in the league have a
second line center as good as John Tavares?
Well, now the Leafs do, having signed Tavares to a seven-year/$77
million deal with the Leafs this past summer.
If you subscribe to the idea that teams need to be strong down the
middle to succeed, this more than offsets the loss of winger James van
Riemsdyk, who moved on to the Philadelphia Flyers over the summer. Toronto tied for third in scoring offense
last season. They will be better this
season.
Why they will come up short… Part of being “strong down the middle”
is having a stout defense and an impenetrable goaltender. Toronto has neither. Not that their defense is awful or their
goaltender is a sieve, but neither their defense nor their goalie are better
than Tampa Bay or among the top echelon in the East. And, this was not a great possession team
last season (17th in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5/49.81
percent). Hey, the Caps weren’t, either,
but their defense and goaltending was better than what Toronto will ice this
season. As for the latter, Frederik
Andersen doesn’t have to be Patrick Roy in front of this offense, but he did
rank just 16th among 45 goalies with at least 1,500 minutes in save
percentage (.918) and was 28th in goals against average (2.81). If that is the level of play at which he tops
out, Toronto will win a lot of games and be very entertaining doing it, but
they will likely come up short in the postseason.
3. Boston Bruins
For a franchise that has the outward image of a solid
Original Six club, this bunch has been all over the map over the last five
seasons. In 2013-2014 they won 54 games,
and then they missed the playoffs the next two seasons. Then, they clawed back into the postseason in
2017 after a 44-win campaign, following that up with another 50-win season last
year. What they haven’t done in the last
five years is get past the second round (in three tries) in the playoffs after
reaching the Cup final in 2013. Their
success last year was forged by being strong on both sides of the puck,
finishing sixth in scoring offense (3.26 goals per game) and fourth in scoring
defense (2.47 goals per game), fourth on the power play (23.5 percent) and
third in penalty killing (83.7 percent).
Why they will go far… It really is their balance. Teams that can be effective on both sides of
the puck and in different situations can deal with hiccups or slumps if one
part of their game goes to rot for a spell.
And if last season is an indicator, that balance does prevent
slumps. The Bruins were a club that did
not lose more than three consecutive games after November 15th and
did not lose as many as three consecutive games in regulation all season. Pencil in Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak
for at least 30 goals.
Why they will come up short… Call it talking out of both
sides of our mouth, but it is the “balance” here, too. A team with the balance of the Bruins might
be a better fit for the grueling six month slog that is the regular season than
the eight week postseason. Perhaps the
Bruins do not have the extra gear or the top-end talented individual to push
them deeper in the playoffs. And, they
are not getting any younger. Patrice
Bergeron, David Krejci, David Backes. All
32 or older, and they missed a combined 61 games last season. Zdeno Chara is still on the back end, but he
is 41 years old and has missed 35 games over the last five seasons. And heaven help the Bruins if they have to
face the Caps. Goalie Tuukka Rask has a
career record of 1-10-5, 3.07, .889 against them.
4. Florida Panthers
The first time this franchise went to the postseason they
went all the way to the Stanley Cup final.
That was in 1996. Since then, the
Panthers have been in the postseason four times in 21 seasons and have not won
so much as a playoff round. They
finished one point out of the dance last season, though, which did provide some
measure of hope for Panther fans that better days were coming. When one considers that three of their four
20-plus goal scorers were 24 or younger last season and that they have a
foundational defenseman in Aaron Ekblad, Florida might have it in them to make
another push upward in the standings.
Why they will go far… They probably won’t. But they do have young talent, including Aleksander
Barkov and Ekblad, who are becoming among the best at their positions in the
league. That is nice to build on, and it
could be enough to make the playoffs, but advancing? It might take a special set of circumstances
(read: “the right matchup”).
Why they will come up short… Their top goalie has a lot of
mileage. Roberto Luongo will turn 39
before season’s end and has appeared in 1,001 career games, one of only three
goalies in NHL history to hit the 1,000 game mark (Martin Brodeur and Patrick
Roy are the others). And, he has
appeared in only 75 games over the last two seasons combined. James Reimer is the backup at the moment, but
he has had declining save percentages and rising goals against averages in each
of the last three seasons.
5. Buffalo Sabres
This could be the most improved team of the 2018-2019
season. Heaven knows, Sabres fans would
be appreciative. Only once in the last
six seasons have they topped 80 standings points, they haven’t reached the
postseason since 2011, and they have gone through five coaches in the last six
seasons. Phil Housley gets a second
season in charge after a difficult first season in which the team started
poorly (0-4-1 to start the season), struggled after that, and ended the season
playing for a first-overall draft pick (3-10-1 in their last 14 games). They got that pick, defenseman Rasmus Dahlin.
Why they will go far… Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The first order of business is to become
competitive, although there could be times this season when this club looks like
a possible playoff team. They will have
some high-end young talent in Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen,
and Dahlin. They just won’t have enough to make a sustained push to the
postseason. That’s a year or two away.
Why they will come up short… Here is where we scratch our heads and ask
ourselves, “when was the last time a defenseman taken first overall was a
high-impact player befitting that selection?”
We have little doubt that Rasmus Dahlin will be a fine player, a superb
player, even perhaps a great player someday.
But looking at defensemen taken as first-overall picks, one might have
to go back to Denis Potvin (1973) as a player who genuinely fulfilled the
promise normally attributed to a first overall pick. A top defenseman, even a “generational” one,
might be a necessary element to a winner, but it might also be an
“insufficient” element. There are still too many missing pieces here.
6. Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens have been an interesting team of late, largely
for the wrong reasons. In their most
recent drama, Max Pacioretty was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights for forward
Tomas Tatar, forward prospect Nick Suzuki, and a second-round pick in the 2019 Entry Draft. In ten years with the club,
Pacioretty scored 226 goals, 18th in that storied franchise’s
history. They did welcome back Tomas
Plekanec as a free agent, who after spending his first 14 seasons with the
Canadiens was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs at last spring’s trading
deadline. That probably is not an
upgrade. But this is a team that won
only 29 games last season. They haven’t
won fewer in a full season since 2000-2001 (28). Montreal is not a town that suffers that kind
of misfortune gladly.
Why they will go far… Carey Price. When he is healthy, he is among the best
goalies in the game. Five times in 10
full seasons (not counting the abbreviated 2012-2013 season) he appeared in
more than 55 games. In four of them he
had a save percentage north of .920, and four times his goals against average
was 2.35 or lower. However, he has
appeared in fewer than 50 games in two of the last three seasons.
Why they will come up short… Last year they couldn’t score
(2.52 goals per game/29th in the league in scoring offense), and two
of their top four goal scorers are gone (Pacioretty to Vegas and Alex
Galchenyuk to Arizona). They couldn’t
much stop anyone from scoring, either (3.15 goals per game allowed/25th). They have some young potential in Max Domi
and Jonathan Drouin, but that is as yet unfulfilled. Brendan Gallagher’s ability to annoy teams
into submission only goes so far.
7. Detroit Red Wings
The Detroit Red Wings missed the postseason for a second
consecutive year in 2017-2018. The last
time that happened, Michael Jackson’s “Billie Jean” was the number one hit on
the Billboard charts (1983, a fifth consecutive year missing the
playoffs). They won 30 games last
season, a number that was last lower in a full season in 1989-1990 (28).
Why they will go far… If this team wins more than 35 games
it will be a moral victory. They do have
young talent such as Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi, or Andreas
Athanasiou. But it isn’t clear that
these are “core” players for the future.
Forwards Filip Zadina and Michael Rasmussen – both top-ten draft picks
in the last two drafts – can’t come along fast enough.
Why they will fall short… While the Red Wings might be in a
rebuild mindset, they remain too old at too many positions. Seven players who appeared in at least 65
games last season were 31 years old or older.
Of that group, Henrik Zetterberg has hung up his skates due to injuries,
but the other six are still on the roster.
And, both goalies – Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier have reached or
passed their 30th birthdays. They haven’t yet ripped things down to
the studs to make way for the next generation. This is going to take a while.
8. Ottawa Senators
Finish seventh in the division a year after going to the
conference final, and lose your best player in the off-season? Yeah, good luck with that. It was inevitable, but when the Senators
traded defenseman Erik Karlsson to the San Jose Sharks (with forward Francis
Perron) for a first-round pick in 2020, a second-round pick in 2019, Chris
Tierney, Dylan DeMelo, Josh Norris and Rudolfs Balcers, it was not just turning
the page, it was throwing out the book and starting another story.
Why they will go far… Yeah, right. It is not as if the Senators are barren of
talent or skill; they still have Matt Duchene, Marian Gaborik (back injury from
which he might not return this season), Mark Stone, and Bobby Ryan on the roster. But it is a team of odd-fitting parts with
the talent it has having more value as trade assets at some point.
Why they will fall short… Because
they’re not very good. Ottawa managed
only ten wins and 24 standings points in 84 games in their inaugural season in
1992-1993. That level of futility is
safe from threat by this team. But this
team is not going to be a lot better.
The highlight of their season might be what they get at the trading
deadline.
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