The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals open the weekend phase of their
four-game home stand by hosting the Minnesota Wild on Friday night at Capital
One Arena. While the Caps dropped a 5-4
overtime decision to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Wednesday night to open the
home stand, they will take a nine-game points streak on home ice (7-0-2) into
this contest.
The Wild are struggling to stay above water in the Western
Conference standings. Through Wednesday’s
games, they were sitting one point behind the Arizona Coyotes for the second
wild card spot in the West. Minnesota
has had a difficult time of it lately going 2-4-3 in their last nine games
overall, although they do have a 5-1-1 record in their last seven road
contests.
Minnesota has had some success as a road team this
season. While they have the fifth-best
road record among Western Conference teams, they are only six points behind the
conference-leading St. Louis Blues with two road games in hand. They have done it by being a reasonably good
defensive team, the 101 goals allowed on the road being the fourth-fewest among
conference teams. They have struggled
some in the offensive end, though, the 100 goals scored tied for ninth among
teams in the West.
Zach Parise leads the Wild in goals (15) and points (33) on
the road this season. Now in his 14th
season, evenly split in years between the Wild and the New Jersey Devils,
Parise is among the most efficient offensive players in Wild history. He ranks third all-time in goals scored
(165), eighth in assists (168), and fourth in points (333), despite having
dressed for only 442 games with the club (13th). What he has added this season that he did not
have in his previous six seasons with the Wild is durability. Parise has appeared in 72 of the Wild’s 74
games this season, 30 more than he dressed for last season, and he seems likely
to surpass the 74 games in which he appeared for the Wild in 2014-2015. He did appear in all of the team’s games in
his first year in Minnesota, but that was the shortened 2012-2013 48-game
season. Parise has been streaky of late.
Over his last 19 games he has had points
streaks of three games (twice, including coming into this game on one) and four
games, and he has had streaks without a point of three and four games. In 33 career games against the Caps, Parise
is 8-16-24, minus-3.
If Zach Parise represents the old guard, then perhaps center
Luke Kunin represents the new order. The
second year center is the youngest skater to appear for the Wild this season,
having turned 21 years old last December.
Kunin was taken by the Wild with the 15th pick overall in the
2016 entry draft (the Auston Matthews/Patrik Laine draft) out of the University
of Wisconsin. Lunin spent another year
with the Badgers, posting 22 goals and 38 points in 35 games, before starting
his pro career with 12 games that season with the Iowa Wild in the AHL. Last season he split time between Iowa and Minnesota,
and he started this season in Iowa. He
was recalled by the big club in early December when Mikko Koivu was
injured. Kunin has dressed for 41 games
this season, going 5-10-15, minus-3, in 41 games. Despite appearing in only those 41 games,
Kunin is in the top-30 among rookie point getters. His points frequency has picked up with time,
going 4-6-10, plus-3, in his last 20 games.
He did not record a point in his first and only appearance against the
Caps to date.
Among the 17 goalies to dress for the Wild in their history,
only Niklas Backstrom has appeared in more games (409) than Devan Dubnyk
(292). Dubnyk is also chasing Backstrom
in wins (162 to 194) and shutouts (22 to 28).
He is chasing no goaltender in the NHL this season in games played (61,
two more than Marc-Andre Fleury), and his 3,500 minutes are second only to
Fleury (3,515). His goals against
average of 2.59 is respectable (13th among 39 goalies with at least
1,750 minutes), although his save percentage is more middle of the pack (.912,
17th in that group). He has
been better on the road, however. His 17
road wins is tied for league-best, while his GAA of 2.51 ranks tenth, and his
save percentage of .916 is 14th among 39 goalies with at least 90
minutes played on the road. His season
has taken a turn, though. From February
21st through March 7th, he was 6-0-1, 1.69, .943, with
one shutout in seven appearances.
However, since he capped that seven game run with the shutout, a 25-save
gem in a 3-0 win in Tampa over the Lightning, Dubnyk is 1-4-0, 3.04, .901 in
his last five appearances. In nine
career appearances against Washington, Dubnyk is 2-6-1, 3.82, .872.
1. Minnesota is
struggles on offense at even strength.
Their 148 even strength goals this season overall ranks 27th
in the league.
2. The Wild are even
worse on offense in overtime. They have
three overtime goals in 74 games. Only
Colorado (two) and the New York Rangers (one) have fewer.
3. Speaking of
overtime, the Wild have gone to extra time 13 times this season. Only twice have they done so on the road, and
they lost in the freestyle competition each time, those coming one month apart in
Buffalo (5-4 on February 5th) and in Nashville (5-4 on March 5th).
4. No team in the
league has lost more games when out-shooting the opposition than Minnesota (20,
tied with Buffalo, Columbus, Carolina, and St. Louis).
5. Only two teams
have fewer wins when scoring first than the Wild (17) – Detroit (15) and the
Rangers (14). And, when allowing the
first goal, the Wild have the seventh-highest number of losses in regulation
(25). Always a good predictor of
results, who scores first seems especially true of the Wild.
1. The Caps have the
fewest losses in regulation in the league when out-shooting opponents
(seven). Having out-shot opponents only
31 times in 74 games (20-7-4) contributes to that result.
2. Washington has yet
to allow a goal at 4-on-4 this season.
They one of three teams that can make that claim (Pittsburgh and
Colorado are the others).
3. Only Toronto (186)
and Tampa Bay (185) have more goals scored at 5-on-5 than the Caps (179).
4. When the Caps
scored in the final minute against Tampa Bay on Wednesday night, it was only
the second 6-on-5 goal scored by the Caps this season. Only Montreal (one), Tampa Bay (one), and
Arizona (none) have fewer.
5. There is a certain
symmetry about the Caps’ performance on faceoffs this season. Only the New York Islanders have won fewer
draws (1,915) than the Caps (1,953), and no team has lost more faceoffs than
the Caps (2,328).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Minnesota: Bruce Boudreau
Bruce Boudreau, by contemporary standards, got comparatively
late start as a first time NHL head coach, taking the reins of the Washington
Capitals at age 53. But despite the late
start, Boudreau ranks 24th in all-time regular season wins among NHL
coaches (537), and he could pass Billy Reay for 23rd place (542)
before season’s end. With 238 games
behind the Wild bench in his career there, he ranks third in all-time franchise
games coached, trailing Jacques Lemaire (656) and Mike Yeo (349). His 128 wins to date trail Lemaire (293) and
Yeo (173). The odd thing about his
career, though, is that Boudreau is also in the top five coaches in Anaheim
Ducks history in games (352), trailing only Randy Carlyle, who had 598 games in
two separate stints sandwiched around Boudreau’s tenure. His 208 wins there trail only Carlyle
(320). And, his 329 games coached for
the Caps ranks third in team history, trailing only Bryan Murray (672) and Ron Wilson
(410). His 201 regular season wins trail
only Murray (343) and Barry Trotz (205) among the 18 coaches in Capitals
history.
However, there is that 43-47 postseason record that has
dogged Boudreau over his career, too. He
has reached the postseason in ten of his previous 12 NHL seasons, but he has
advanced from the first round as a head coach only four times, the last of
which came in 2015, when his Anaheim Ducks lost in the Western Conference
final. That might have been a
particularly bitter postseason for Boudreau, whose Ducks swept Winnipeg in the
first round before dispatching the Calgary Flames in five games in the second
round. Anaheim ran into the Chicago
Blackhawks in the third round and lost at home in Game 7, 5-3, after falling
behind 4-0 before the game was 34 minutes old. Boudreau is 2-6-3 in 11 games coaching against
the Capitals.
Washington: Tom
Wilson
The last three seasons: 7-14-21. That is the progression in goals scored by Tom
Wilson, who by now is a given as a critical element in the success of the
Washington Capitals. He has, if not a
unique, than a rare combination of production and orneriness. With 56 career goals and 921 penalty minutes,
he is one of only 35 players in league history to record at least 50 goals and at least 900 penalty minutes in his first six seasons. He is the only player in the league to have
done it since the 2004-2005 dark season. And, he could be an award winning real estate
agent with all the properties he has claimed in the heads of other teams and
their fan bases. Here is an odd Wilson
fact to impress your friends. Nine times
this season, Wilson has recorded a goal and taken at least one penalty. The Caps have won all of them. The Caps are 21-4-0 in the 25 such games
Wilson has had in his career.
Wilson had a bit of a dry spell in mid-January, when he went
five consecutive games without a point, his longest streak this season. However, he is 8-7-15, plus-8, over his last
26 games. The Caps are 11-0-1 in the 12
games over that span in which he recorded a point, 5-7-2 when he did not. Wilson is 3-3-6, plus-5, in 11 career games
against Minnesota.
In the end…
The Caps have had an intense week with a pair of hard-fought
games against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
It would be not be unexpected for the team to exhibit a bit of a letdown
against a club they do not face often and against which they do not have a
particularly noteworthy rivalry. Even if
you are thinking of the Caps-meet-former-coach angle, consider that among the
players dressing for the last game Bruce Boudreau coached in Washington, back
in November 2011, only four players remain (Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, Dmitry
Orlov, and Alex Ovechkin). However, the
Caps still have only a three-point lead in the division and only five points
clear for holding a home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They still have to wrap up their season
series with the Lightning, have two games left with Carolina, and face the
Islanders in the season finale. It means
that when two points are available, it is best to take them.
Capitals 4 – Wild 2
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