Peerless: Game
7. The ultimate test. Does last year’s win over Tampa Bay give the
Caps something to build on here?
Fearless: Every team is different, but this team is less
different than last year’s team and less different than most defending Stanley
Cup champions. So, the reflex answer is
to say that yes, this team has lessons learned from last year that can help
them. But those come in two parts. For instance, if that game is a template,
then one thing to remember is the importance of early pressure. The Caps scored first, just 62 seconds into
the game to put Tampa Bay on their heels.
But pressure means pressure at the other end, too. The Caps allowed the Lightning only ten first
period shots and 19 shot attempts.
There was being disciplined.
The Caps did take three penalties in that game, but two were coincidental
with Tampa Bay penalties. The Caps would
go shorthanded only once in that game, a third period penalty by Matt Niskanen
when the Caps were already up, 3-0. Then
again, you have to kill those chances, and the Caps did so effectively, denying
the Lightning so much as a single power play shot on goal in two minutes on
their only power play opportunity.
There was balance.
Three Caps shared in the four goals in that game, and seven players
combined for nine points. But the stars
have to be stars, too. There was
Ovechkin’s early goal. There was Nicklas
Backstrom’s empty netter to seal the win with under four minutes left. There was John Carlson with an assist and a
plus-3 rating, best on the team. On the
other hand, there was secondary scoring.
The difference in this game might have been Andre Burakovsky’s two
goals. Tom Wilson had a pair of
assists.
And, of course, there is goaltending. Braden Holtby was in a zone, stopping all 28
shots he faced, extending his consecutive shots stopped streak to 78 over the
last 159:27 of that series. But there is
also keeping the pressure off the goalie, and the Caps allowed only seven shots
on goal in the third period of that Game 7 against Tampa Bay, none in the first
ten minutes of that period, never letting the Lightning get a glimpse of a
comeback. This isn’t a bad template for
a victory on Wednesday night, and hopefully it is still in the Caps’ individual
and collective memory banks.
Cheerless: Well, that was impressive, but I’m thinking “dance
steps.”
Fearless: You know what he’d talking about, cousin?
Peerless: I have no clue…
Cheerless: Hey, over here, guys. Look at their recent history of Games 7. 2009 against the Rangers…win. 2009 against the Pens and 2010 against
Montreal…losses. 2012 against Boston…win. 2012 and 2013 against the Rangers…losses. 2015 against the Islanders…win. 2015 against the Rangers and 2017 against the
Penguins…losses. You guys ever hear of a
“waltz?”
Fearless: Why cousin, I never thought of you as a Johann
Strauss, the Younger, fan.
Cheerless: I was thinking more Bill Monroe and “The
Tennessee Waltz.” But back to the
series, it’s been win-loss-loss, win-loss-loss for this team in Games 7. Last year was a win. You do the math…er, steps. Then there is the place. Last year, the Caps won their Game 7 on the
road. It evened their record in Games 7
on the road at 2-2 since 2007-2008.
Home has not been kind to the Caps in these situations, though. In fact, it’s been downright ugly. Grandma before she puts her teeth in
ugly. The Caps are 1-4 in their last
five Games 7 on home ice. They’ve been
outscored, 16-5 in those games. They
haven’t scored more than two goals in any of those five games, and they were
shut out in their last two losses.
There is the power play.
It has been OK for the Caps in this series, going 6-for-21 (28.6 percent/fourth
of 16 playoff teams), but in seven home Games 7 since 2007-2008, they have one
power play goal, and that one came against the Flyers in 2008 (they lost in
overtime…on a power play goal). The Caps
are without a power play goal in their last six Games 7 on home ice. The Caps might have learned lessons in last
season’s Game 7 in Tampa Bay, but class isn’t over. There is the home ice final to deal with.
Peerless: Nicklas
Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin have certainly stepped up in a big way. Backstrom has five goals in six games, matching
last year’s total posted in 20 games, and just one short of his career playoff
best (six in 13 games in 2017). Ovechkin
has four goals, on the same pace he had last year when he put up a league
leading and career high of 15 goals in 24 games. The nine goals the two have are more than
half the team’s total of 17 goals in this series. Stars have to be stars in big games, but who
else needs to step up in this Game 7?
Cheerless: Calling Evgeny Kuznetsov…Calling Evgeny
Kuznetsov. Yeah, he’s a star, but he ain’t
been stepping up. He has five assists in six
games, the same pace he had last year (20 in 24 games), but he does not have a
goal yet. He had 23 goals in 63 career
playoff games before this season, a 30-goal pace over 82 games. Maybe he's been playing hurt, but if he’s got a goal or two in him, now would
be a good time to play it or them.
Fearless: We’ll go off the board here and say the Matt Niskanen/Dmitry
Orlov defensive pair. Carolina has 13 even-strength
goals in this series, and that pair has been on ice for six of them. If they are the top defensive pair on this
team, they have to make sure the defense is applied. That neither has a goal in this series is
something Caps fans would like to see remedied, but if Carolina does not score
with that pair on the ice, given they are 1-2 in even strength ice time per
game, the chances for the Caps winning improve.
Peerless: Bottom line, who wins? OK, we know who wins, but will it be a short
night (a blowout) or a long one (overtime…s)?
Fearless: The Caps have won three home games by a combined
14-5 score. Two of the wins were of the
multi-goal decision variety. The Caps
have six first period goals in this series on home ice. They are 5-for-12 on the power play on home
ice (41.7 percent). They are 12-for-13
killing penalties at Capital One Arena (92.3 percent). Caps win…short night.
Cheerless: This is the seventh time in franchise history
that the Caps faced a team in a Game 7 on home ice for the first time. Nothing in the previous six suggests this
will be anything but a tense, if not a long night. Islanders in 1987…four-overtime
loss. Flyers in 1988…overtime win. Devils in 1988…one-goal loss. Penguins in 1992…two-goal loss, but a
Penguins empty netter in the last minute.
Rangers in 2009…one goal win off a third period tie-breaking goal. 2010 against Montreal…one-goal loss, featuring
a disallowed Capitals goal in the third period that would have tied the
game. Maybe the Caps’ history will
change based on what they learned last year, but it would not be the way to
bet. Long night. Long, long night.
In the end…
We’re at the end…of this series. For all the words above, this series comes
down to one club. Carolina has had a
reasonably consistent level of effort over the six games played so far. But wins and losses have come down to how the
Caps have played and their intensity level.
In the games in which intensity has been high and effort significant,
they won. When they looked as if they
were having a skate at Washington Harbour and letting Carolina dictate pace and
tempo, they lost.
The added “X-factor” here is whether the Game 7 history on
home ice creeps into the arena in the form of the Caps squeezing their sticks
too tight. In seven Games 7 on home ice
since 2007-2008, the Caps have never scored more than two goals. Braden Holtby will have to continue to be as
sharp on home ice as he has been so far in this series (3-0, 1.65, .943, one
shutout). But the Caps will have to
break the “two-goal hole” to advance. It
might not be a short night, but it will be a happy one.
Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 2
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