“Just remember, once you're over the hill you begin to pick
up speed.”
-- Arthur Schopenhauer
It is a bit early to be pronouncing
a 32-year old defenseman “over the hill,” but there was something of a
head-scratching quality to the season Washington Capitals defenseman Matt
Niskanen had in 2018-2019. He tied a
career high of seven even strength goals this season, but his overall point
total dropped for the second straight season, from 39 points two years ago to
29 points last season to 25 points this season while playing more games this
season (80) than in either of the last two.
He also finished a minus-3, his worst plus-minus rating since he was
minus-3 in a 2010-2011 season that was split between the Dallas Stars and
Pittsburgh Penguins.
Of some alarm, his season
deteriorated (at least from a points perspective) from a good start. Over his first three ten-game segments,
Niskanen recorded five, four, and five points, respectively, going 4-10-14,
even, in 30 games. The fourth segment
was key, though. He was 1-0-1, plus-1,
in the first six games of that segment.
In that sixth game against Carolina, Niskanen was chasing down a puck in
the corner to the right of Braden Holtby mid-way through the third period with
the Caps ahead, 2-0. As he approached
the wall, he was nudged in the right shoulder by Justin Williams, and then he
was pushed face-first into the boards by Clark Bishop. He missed the remainder of that game and the
next two.
Niskanen strugged in his own end
upon his return. Although he was 2-2-4
in his first 14 games upon his return, he posted a minus-12 rating. He rebounded to go 1-5-6, plus-8, in his last
30 games, but that 14-game stretch was a killer on an individual level for his
numbers. It begs the question, was it an
injury-influenced off year for Niskanen (who was 6-15-21, plus-9, in 66 games not including the
14-game struggle he had on his return from injury), or was it an indicator of
diminishing production to come?
Fearless’ Take… Matt Niskanen has
long been a minutes-eating defenseman.
Including this season, he has averaged more than 20 minutes per game for
seven straight seasons and averaged 22:20 per game over that span. Even though his minutes were off some this
season (his 21:56 per game was his lowest since he averaged 21:18 per game for
Pittsburgh in 2013-2014), heavy ice time loads did not seem to burden him or
the team. In 16 games in which he skated
more than 23 minutes, he was 3-5-8, plus-4, and the Caps were 10-3-3.
Cheerless’ Take… There is
engaging in play, and there is engaging in play. In 25 games in which Matt Niskanen was
credited with three or more hits, the Caps were 12-11-1. In 18 games in which he was credited with three
or more blocked shots, they were 11-5-2.
They were 3-4-0 in the seven games in which he recorded at least three
hits and three blocked shots. Sometimes,
there are some numbers you might not want to see a lot of.
Odd Niskanen Fact… Matt Niskanen
recorded three or more shots on goal in 23 games this season, but the Caps were
just 9-11-3 in those games. They were
11-4-2 in the 17 games in which he did not record a shot on goal.
Bonus Odd NIskanen Fact... Matt Niskanen is one of two first round picks of the 2005 Entry Draft who play with the Caps. T.J. Oshie is the other. Neither was selected by the Caps, Niskanen taken by Dallas with the 28th overall pick and Oshie taken by St. Louis with the 24th overall pick. The Caps did have two first round picks in that draft -- Sasha Pokulok (taken 14th overall) and Joe Finley (taken 27th overall, one pick before Niskanen). Neither played a game for the Caps.
Bonus Odd NIskanen Fact... Matt Niskanen is one of two first round picks of the 2005 Entry Draft who play with the Caps. T.J. Oshie is the other. Neither was selected by the Caps, Niskanen taken by Dallas with the 28th overall pick and Oshie taken by St. Louis with the 24th overall pick. The Caps did have two first round picks in that draft -- Sasha Pokulok (taken 14th overall) and Joe Finley (taken 27th overall, one pick before Niskanen). Neither played a game for the Caps.
Game to Remember… October 17th vs. New York Rangers
The Caps had a special night to open the season, a 7-0 win
over the Boston Bruins in the Stanley Cup banner raising. However, the Caps went 1-2-1 in their next
four contests before hosting the New York Rangers. The Rangers arrived in Washington as winners
of two of three games after a struggling 0-3-0 start. The visitors put the Caps down early with a
Mika Zibanejad goal six minutes into the contest. John Carlson got the Caps even before the
first intermission, and Alex Ovechkin gave them a lead early in the second on a
power play. The teams exchanged power
play goals before the second intermission, but the Rangers got even mid-way
through the third period on a Chris Kreider power play goal. That set up overtime.
Just as the clock was passing the two-minute mark of the
3-on-3 session, NIskanen fed the puck up ice from his own end to Evgeny
Kuznetsov circling at the red line.
Kuznetsov skated the puck down the middle and faked a shot before
peeling off to the left wing circle. He
and Niskanen crossed, giving Kuznetsov an opening to stwp up and send a shot
high to the glove side of goalie Henrik Lundqvist. Although he got his glove on the shot, Lundqvist
could not control it, and it dropped to his left, just where Niskanen was
crossing in front. Niskanen whipped a
shot past a fallen Lundqvist into the back of the net for his first goal of the
new season, giving the Caps the 4-3 win 2:18 into overtime.
Game to Forget… October
11th at New Jersey
Through their first three games of the season, the Caps were
2-0-1 and scored 18 goals. Going to New
Jersey to face a Devils team that finished the previous season 17th
in scoring defense offered the promise of further padding the early season offensive
stats for the Caps. Things did not work
out quite that way. Before the game was
20 minutes old, the Devils had a 2-0 lead, both goals from Kyle Palmieri, and
Matt Niskanen got an up-close look at each, being on ice for both. By the time it was over, the Devils had a 6-0
win, Niskanen also being on ice for the last of those six goals. It was the first of three instances this
season in which Niskanen posted a minus-3 rating, adding three shots on goal
and two hits in his 19:46 in ice time.
Postseason… About the
best one could say of the postseason Matt Niskanen had against the Carolina
Hurricanes was that it was uniformly mediocre.
He was 0-1-1, plus-2, with four shots on goal in four home games, 0-1-1,
minus-2, with three shots on goal in three road games. He had two blocked shots in five games, three
in the other two. He had two hits in
four of the games. He skated more than
20 minutes in all seven games, including a 37:35 log in the double-overtime
loss in Game 7. It was at the end of
those 37-plus minutes that he could not quite close the distance between
himself and Justin Williams as Williams chased down a loose puck along the
right wing wall, nor could he block Williams’ centering feed to Brock McGinn
for the game-winning, series-clinching goal for the Hurricanes.
Looking ahead… Matt Niskanen has two more years at a $5.75
million cap hit on his current contract.
That cap hit with the other contract issues the club has, and perhaps
the combination of his age (he will turn 33 in December) and diminished
production in 2018-2019, has led people to wonder if he will be traded in this off-season.
Complicating the issue is that Niskanen has a modified no-trade clause that
allows him to submit a 10-team no-trade list (source: capfriendly.com).
In the end…
Matt Niskanen has been with the Caps five years. In that time he has averaged 78 games played
per year, and he has five of the top 11 average ice times per season (John
Carlson also has five, and Dmitry Orlov has one). All of those missed games have come after he
appeared in all 82 games in each of his first two seasons with the Caps. He has skated a lot of hard minutes, and the
chips and dents might be showing as he heads toward his age 33 season, what
would be his 13th in the NHL.
It was the legendary baseball executive Branch Rickey who
once said, “trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late.” It might be his most famous quote. But he also said, “never surrender
opportunity for security.” And this is
the situation that the Caps face. Is
Matt Niskanen showing the first effects of a long career in which he has skated
a lot of minutes, or was the 2018-2019 season, arguably his worst statistically
since the 2010-2011 season in which he was traded to Pittsburgh after going
1-9-10, minus-3, in 63 games for Dallas, merely an aberration? Will the Caps bet on the latter, which could
end up being a surrender to security if it isn’t an aberration? Or, will they look to move the player to give
the club an opportunity to free up resources to address other players’ contract
situations at the risk that this season really was just a hiccup in Niskanen’s
career?
Grade: B-
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