For the Washington Capitals - Settling the Unsettled at the Most Important Position

It is the most important position in hockey, the one for which there is no substitute unless things are going badly or, in a season as unique as this, unexpectedly.  Teams have had to scramble and respond to circumstances on the fly with respect to their goaltending situations.  Remember that in the best of times, a team will employ two goaltenders.  And barring injury, trades, or poor play by one or both that require call-ups, waivers, or other front office actions, two goalies is what that team will employ over a season.

But extraordinary actions to add goalies to the mix are an infrequent occurrence, especially early in seasons.  Consider that by December 3^rd last season, by which time all 31 teams had completed 25 games of their schedule, 23 teams had two goalies – and only two goalies – dress for those games.  Six dressed three goalies, and two – Colorado and Vegas – dressed four goalies.

COVID and the late-starting season have played havoc with personnel deployment, not least important among goalies.  While not all teams have yet hit the 25-game mark in games played, much of it due to COVID-related adjustments in schedules, 23 teams have hit that mark, and the other eight have played at least 22 games (Dallas having played the fewest).  However, only 14 teams have played only two goalies.  Another 15 have dressed three goalies through Thursday’s games, and two – Vegas and New Jersey – have dressed four netminders.

And this brings us to the experience and the response of the Washington Capitals.  The Caps have been extraordinarily fortunate in their employment of goalies.  From 2015-2016 through last season, the Caps employed two – and only two goalies – in each season:

• 2015-2016: Braden Holtby/Philipp Grubauer
• 2016-2017: Braden Holtby/Philipp Grubauer
• 2017-2018: Braden Holtby/Philipp Grubauer
• 2018-2019: Braden Holtby/Pheonix Copley
• 2019-2020: Braden Holtby/Ilya Samsonov

Caps fans knew that as a minimum, the team was almost certain to lose Holtby to free agency, which it did, the veteran signing with Vancouver.  It left the Caps with an inexperienced pair in Ilya Samsonov (26 regular season games of experience, no playoff experience, an injury that ended his 2019-2020 season before he could gain postseason experience) and Vitek Vanecek (no NHL games on his resume).  The Caps shored up their goaltending situation by signing Henrik Lundqvist, a certain Hall of Fame goalie, as a free agent to a one-year/$1.5 million contract to mentor the young goalies and perhaps log minutes as the number one netminder as circumstances dictate.

It was a solid plan, on paper, but things took a turn when Lundqvist announced in December that a heart condition he had required surgery.  It was a situation that would, at a minimum, delay any return to the ice to late in the season and, at worst, end Lundqvist’s career entirely.  The Caps signed 17-year veteran Craig Anderson in January as a fall-back position, but the situation was now one where two goalies with almost no NHL experience were going to be asked to mature quickly on a club with Stanley Cup aspirations.

Even that plan did not survive long.  Samsonov appeared in two games before he and three teammates (Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov, and Evgeny Kuznetsov) were placed in quarantine for violating COVID protocols.  Samsonov missed 17 games as a result of having contracted the disease, what he would later describe as “a really bad sick.”  In his stead, Vanecek took over and in the games missed by Samsonov, he went 8-4-3 (one no-decision), 2.92, .905. Over that span, Vanecek tied for fifth in the league in wins (tied for first among all 16 rookie goalies to dress over that span), was 25^st in save percentage among 41 goalies with at least 400 minutes (10^th among rookies), and 26^th in that group in goals against average (ninth among rookies).  They were not eye-popping numbers, but under the circumstances, he being the number three option in the Caps’ plans for this season behind Samsonov and Lundqvist, he might have been the Caps most valuable player. 

But Samsonov has returned to the ice.  While he has not reclaimed the number one spot, he is in the rotation, playing in four of seven games since his return on February 28th.  Although it is only four games for Samsonov since his return, it is an interesting profile.  He is 3-0-0 (one no-decision), 2.06, .929 in those four games.  But while those overall numbers are impressive, they cover a bit of inconsistency in his game.  In three of the games, including one in which he relieved Vanecek for the last 20 minutes in a loss to Boston on March 5^th, his save percentage was .905 or worse.  It was a 36-save effort in a 3-1 win over the Flyers on March 7^th that bolstered is overall numbers, post-COVID.  Still, Samsonov’s overall record is better in his return than it was before going into COVID quarantine:

• Pre-COVID: Two games, 1-0-1, 3.36, .868
• Post-COVID: Four games, 3-0-0, 2.05, .929

There is an odd quality to Samsonov’s post-COVID performance.  One reasonable conclusion one might reach is that with the absence and the effects of the disease on the system, he might fade late in games.  This has not been the case in his four appearances through Thursday.  His first period save percentage is what lags.  In those four games he stopped 29 of 32 shots, a .906 save percentage.   Better than any save percentage by period in his pre-COVID appearances, but significantly below those of his second periods in his last four games (.962/25-for-26) and third periods (.925/37-40).

And there is the matter of how he has responded to situations.  His overall save percentage after his return (.929) is much better than before his quarantine (.868), and this difference has extended to situations.  His even strength save percentage (.929) is 13^th among 43 goalies appearing in at least three games since his return, and it is much better than his pre-COVID mark (.860).  Against power plays, his save percentage (.917) is also much better post-COVID than pre-COVID (.875) and ranks 12^th among that same set of 43 goalies.

It is a small population of games from which to draw any conclusions.  Put Ilya Samsonov’s performance since his return in the category of “tantalizing.”  He has shown moments, even stretches of brilliance.  On the other hand, there have been those moments when he is not quite at the top of his game, scrambling about as he seems to struggle with the pace of the action unfolding in front of him.  For the Caps, as the trade deadline approaches (now schedule for April 12^th), they have 16 games to see if Samsonov can reduce the moments of inconsistency and put the team on his back, fall back to a platoon system with Vitek Vanecek, turn the reins over to Vanecek, or look outside the organization for help.  How this situation unfolds over the next month will go a long way to determining whether the Caps reach the postseason and how far they go if they get there.