The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
After visiting the Philadelphia Flyers for a matinee contest on Saturday, the Washington Capitals head north for another matinee matchup, taking on the Boston Bruins at TD Garden in a noon start on Sunday. Pending Saturday’s results, the Caps are still leading the East Division, but only six points separate first and fourth place, and the fourth place Bruins have two games in hand on the Caps.
Boston comes into this game having won three games in a row after taking an 8-1 pasting by the Caps on April 11th. One area that will be different for the Bruins in this game compared to that lopsided loss will be in goal. Dan Vladar took one for the team in that one, charged with all eight goals against on 33 shots faced. This time around, Tuukka Rask could be available to resume duties as the number one netminder. Except for 20 minutes in a 4-3 overtime loss to the New York Islanders on March 25th, Rask was out of the lineup since March 7th with what appeared to be a back injury. He returned to the lineup last Thursday and stopped 22 of 23 shots in a 4-1 win over the Islanders, the 300th win of his career. Rask has had his struggles against the Caps, holding a 3-11-7, 3.03, .893 career record with two shutouts against the Capitals. He lost his two most recent decisions against the Caps, both in extra time, a 4-3 overtime loss on January 30th and a 2-1 Gimmick loss to the Caps on March 3rd.
On the other hand, there is the goalie who has “some of that Tuukka in him.” That would be Jeremy Swayman, who has stepped up in the absence of Rask and backup Jaroslav Halak (COVID protocol) to post a 4-1-0, 1.78, .938 record with one shutout in five appearances since April 6th. He allowed as many as three goals only once in those five games, that coming in his only loss, a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on April 10th. His performance to date might strike some as surprising, Swayman being the 12th of 21 goalies taken in the 2017 Entry Draft. What he has done at every level, though, is stop pucks. In three seasons with the University of Maine he posted a save percentage of .927, and with the Providence Bruins of the AHL this season before his call-up, he had a save percentage of .933. His save percentage of .938 with the Bruins this season is second-best among 71 goalies logging at least 300 minutes. Swayman has faced the Capitals once, stopping 31 of 33 shots in a 4-2 Boston win on April 8th.
They come, and they go. Over the last dozen years, several players were identified as the next great goal scorer to replace Alex Ovechkin. After Steven Stamkos put together three seasons with a total of 156 goals, it was going to be him. But since his 60 goal season in 2011-2012, he topped 40 only twice in eight seasons coming into this one, much of his production potential lost to injuries. Then it was going to be Corey Perry, or Vladimir Tarasenko, or Patrik Laine, or Leon Draisaitl. These days, Auston Matthews gets attention. Another one of the more recent entries in the “next” sweepstakes is David Pastrnak, who seemed to be on a career path that could take him to such heights. Over a four season period ending with last season, Pastrnak posted, in order, 34, 35, 38 and 48 goals, the last of those seasons earning a share of the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy with Ovechkin.
This year has thrown sand in the gears of his goal scoring progress machine. After posting 14 goals in his first 21 games after missing the first seven games with a hip injury (a 55-goal pace over a full 82-game season), he was placed under COVID protocol. He returned to the lineup on March 25th, but in 14 games since his return he has only three goals. One think head coach Bruce Cassidy felt Pastrnak needed to do was “he just has to get a little dirtier,” meaning he had to get to the interior more often, where the dirty goals are scored. Pastrnak did light the lamp in his last game, scoring the game's first goal that would prove to be the game-winner in Boston’s 3-0 win over the Islanders on Friday. He is 3-2-5, plus-4, in six games against the Caps this season and 8-10-18, minus-4, in 21 career games against Washington.
1. Boston has had a strange year on home ice. They started the season with four straight wins at TD Garden, and they come into this game with a three-game winning streak on that ice sheet. In between, they were just 6-6-3.
2. If Boston loses this game in regulation, it will be the 2,400th regulation loss in team history. On the other hand, if they score five goals, they will reach the 21,000-goal mark in team history.
3. Since the Caps scored eight goal in their last visit to Boston, the Bruins allowed a total of only three goals in three home games, topped with a shutout in their last game at home, a 3-0 win over the Islanders.
4. Boston taking a lead into an intermission at home is just about a sure thing as far as wins go – 7-0-1 when leading after one period, 10-0-2 when leading after two periods.
5. The Bruins punish opponents with shots on home ice. In 22 games on home ice, they outshot opponents 16 times (10-5-1) and were out-shot four times (1-1-2). The other two games, in which the Bruins and opponents had an even number of shots, ended in Bruins wins.
1. Washington leads the only division with four teams holding a points percentage of better than .600.
2. The Caps are one of only four teams in the league to average fewer than 30 shots taken per game and fewer than 30 shots allowed (28.2/29.7). The New York Islanders (28.1/27.6), New York Rangers (28.8/27.7), and Philadelphia Flyers (28.9/29.1) are the others.
3. The Caps lead the league in scoring offense on the road (3.50 goals per game, pending the results in Philadelphia on Saturday).
4. Washington has the second-best penalty kill on the road this season (87.1 percent). They are 19-for-20 (95.0 percent) in their last eight road games, that power play goal allowed on the road coming in Boston in their last meeting at TD Garden.
5. When the Caps went 3-for-6 on power plays against the Bruins in their last meeting in Boston, it was the first multi-power play goal game for the Caps this season and their first since they had a pair of power play goals in a 3-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche in Denver on February 13, 2020.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Boston: Taylor Hall
Taylor Hall might the “let’s try this again” player in the NHL. Six seasons in Edmonton, then traded to the New Jersey Devils. Three and a half seasons with the Devils, then traded to Arizona. Half a season in Arizona, then he signed as a free agent with Buffalo. A little over half a season with the Sabres, then traded to Boston. And, has any former number one overall pick been traded for less value than Hall? With all due respects to the players involved going the other way, Adam Larsson, Kevin Bahl, Nick Merkley, Nate Schnarr, Anders Bjork, and a draft pick that became Dawson Mercer (two other draft picks are in the 2021 Entry Draft) seem like meager returns.
Will this time be different? Considering that Hall has as many goals in three games with Boston as he did in 37 games with Buffalo this season (two), there is cause for cautious optimism. And, he seems to be impressing teammates, one in particular. It is not as if Hall has been a stiff; his 222 goals rank 31st in the league since he entered the NHL in 2010-2011, and his 584 points rank 23rd, but since his Hart Trophy season with New Jersey in 2017-2018 (39-54-93, plus-14, all career highs), he has been a bit of a lost soul, going 31-79-110, minus-38, in 138 games with four teams, including the Bruins. He was another casualty to COVID protocol this season, and that might have played a role in his 2-17-19, minus-21 scoring line with the Sabres. If he has completely recovered from that and can use the move to a new city with a contender as inspiration, he would be a formidable asset for the Bruins. Hall was 1-2-3, minus-1, in three games for Buffalo against the Caps this season; he is 4-7-11, minus-4, in 20 career games against Washington.
Washington: Zdeno Chara
Third in games played by a defenseman (1,023), third in goals (148), third in assists (333), third in points (481), third in power play goals (69), third in game-winning goals (24). Being third behind Bobby Orr and Raymond Bourque in these categories (except in games played, where he is behind Bourque and Don Sweeney), is evidence of just how great a career Zdeno Chara had in Boston.
What he is not, with the Capitals, is that player. He was not that player in his last few seasons in Boston, statistically speaking. He had his last 40-point season in 2013-2014 (40 points). He had his last 20-assist season in 2015-2016 (28 assists). He had his last ten-goal season in 2016-2017 (ten goals). He has one power play goal in his last four seasons. Which is not to say he is not missed. In fact, a long-time reporter covering the Bruins thinks they could use him about now.
What Chara provides the Capitals in his first season in Washington is not a matter of numbers, at least not entirely. Those numbers have been solid, if not quite Chara-esque (2-7-9, plus-9, in 44 games with the Caps this season). He will reach double digits in points for the 19th consecutive season, but he is unlikely to extend his consecutive seasons averaging 20 minutes per game to 21 seasons (he is averaging 18:22 per game).
What Chara does provide is stability and reliability (one of three of eight defensemen dressing for all 44 games for the Caps through Friday), and he complements Dmitry Orlov (6-7-13, plus-11) in terms of production from the left side of the defense this season. As for the usual “intangibles” of being a Stanley Cup winner, a player with almost 1,600 games of regular season experience (1,597), almost 200 games of playoff experience, and a legendary work ethic, perhaps those attributes are overestimated among fans, but they don’t hurt. Chara is 1-0-1, even, in six games against his former team and 8-6-14, minus-2, in 41 career games against Boston.
In the end…
This will be a tough game, both physically and mentally, for the Caps. They get their second matinee start in as many days, with noon-ish starting times that the Caps have struggled with this season (2-1-1 in four games starting at or before 1:00pm this season). And this will be the last game the Caps play before meeting the New York Islanders for a three-game set starting later next week. It would be easy to look ahead, even against a team like the Bruins, who will be looking for revenge after the shellacking they took in their last meeting against the Caps. The Caps might have scored eight goals in that last meeting, but don’t expect the teams to combine for that total in this one.
Capitals 4 – Bruins 3
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