Lars Eller
“The most reliable way to forecast the future is to try to
understand the present.”
-- John Naisbitt
Nicklas Backstrom is often held up as an example of consistency and reliability in his on-ice performance, and it is a reputation well-deserved. But let us include Lars Eller among those players that the Caps can rely upon for consistency from game to game and season to season. Dating back to the 2013-2014 season with Montreal through the abbreviated 2019-2020 season, Eller never missed more than five games in a season, ranged in goal scoring from 12 (in 2013-2014 and 2016-2017) to 18 (in 2017-2018), jumped in point production from a 25-27 point range in his last three years in Montreal and first year in Washington to a mid-to-high 30’s point producer in three seasons before last year, and posted shots in a range of 137 to 163 over the period (with one outlier – 115 shots in his first season with the Caps in 2016-2017). Last season, Eller was still consistent in his per-game production, his goals per 60 minutes (0.7) and assists per 60 minutes (1.3) settling comfortably in his range of values as a Capital (0.6-0.9 in goals per 60 minutes, 0.7-1.3 in assists per 60 minutes) but he did miss a dozen games (11 to injury, one for personal reasons).
Odd Eller Fact… When Lars Eller scores a playoff goal, the Caps win. They are 8-0 in postseason games in which Eller scored a goal. Three of them were game winners, including the Stanley Cup-clinching goal in the 2018 postseason.
Odd Eller Fact II… Eller had not scored a goal in his last 15 postseason games.
Fearless’ Take… Any NHL team is bound to have some drama over the course of a season, a disgruntled player, players battling slumps, losing streaks, whatever. But for the Caps, Lars Eller seems to be the “No-Drama Feller.” He just shows up every night, provides a reliable level of performance that the team can count on. And his versatility, an ability to man the middle on any of the top three lines in a pinch, makes him even more valuable. The trick this season will be in avoiding having to test that proposition as the Caps look to get another solid season from Nicklas Backstrom and a “no drama” year, save for perhaps a dramatic improvement in performance from Evgeny Kuznetsov.
Cheerless’ Take… There was an odd stat in Eller’s line last season – shooting. From 2011-2012 with Montreal through 2019-2020 with the Caps, Eller never averaged fewer than 6.1 shots per 60 minutes and in each of the three seasons preceding last season averaged at least 7.3 shots per 60 minutes. But last season that average dropped to 5.8 per 60 minutes. He was somewhat more efficient in the shots he did take (11.6 percent shooting versus 10.0 percent over his first four years with the Caps), but the result was an odd balancing effect that kept his goals-per-60 minutes squarely within the range of his career production.
Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021…
- 800 career NHL games (currently 798)
- 400 games as a Capital (356)
- 200 points as a Capital (161)
- 100 assists as a Capital (94)
- 1,500 career shots on goal (1,395)
- 500 career penalty minutes (481)
The Big Question… Can Lars Eller coax a 40-plus point year out of this season?
Lars Eller has been flirting with the 40-point mark for several years, posting 38-, 36-, and 39-point seasons before slipping to 23 points (in 44 games) last season. He has never had a 40-point season in his career. The key here might be in better finishes. He was 1-0-1 in his last nine games in 2017-2018 when he finished with 38 points, 1-0-1 in his last eight games in 2018-2019 when he finished with 36 points, and 2-2-4 in his last 12 games in 2018-2019 when he finished with 39 points (in an abbreviated 69-game season). The Caps might need Eller to have a better finish to safely secure a postseason slot in a tightly contested Metropolitan Division race.
In the end…
Lars Eller continues a tradition of reliable, consistent two-way performers at the center position in Caps history – Bengt Gustafsson, Mike Ridley, Michal Pivonka, Dale Hunter, Nicklas Backstrom. His versatility has only enhanced his value to the Caps, but this season might be served better if there is less “churn” in his positioning among the top three lines and more his remaining a reliable, consistent, upper-echelon third line center. To the extent he does so will be an indirect indicator that things are going well on the top two lines with regard to production and the absence of drama, things the Caps would like to ensure as they pursue another postseason run.
Projection: 79 games, 16-23-39, plus-1
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