Nicklas Backstrom
“Hope is patience with the lamp lit.”
-- Tertullian
“Hope” is the word that will be on Washington Capitals fans’ minds regarding Nicklas Backstrom over the next several months. They hope he will regain full health and fitness after undergoing hip surgery. They hope he will be able to return to the ice at some point this season. They hope that he can perform at a level that approaches, if not meets, his performance level of the last several years (at 35 years of age come November, he would not be expected to be the player he was a decade ago). They hope he will be healthy to have a full and healthy life after he hangs up his skates, whether that is this year or after his current contract expires in 2025.
Backstrom’s game has always been characterized by three attributes – its understated nature, its consistency, and its prolific level of production. Even in recent years, when it seemed a few Caps fans were souring on his performance, he was consistent and still averaging almost a point per game. These are qualities that will be hard to replace in the short term, and the second line center position might be a revolving door while Backstrom’s rehabilitation proceeds. And don’t underestimate the chemistry he had with linemates; his ability to complement players and put them in the best positions to produce on the ice will be something difficult to replace, especially early in the season.
Odd Backstrom Fact… No player in NHL history born in Sweden has more 50-assist seasons than Nicklas Backstrom (nine). He also has more 50-assist seasons than any NHL player since he came into the league in 2007-2008.
Fearless’ Take…
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, Nicklas Backstrom’s surgery was 100 percent successful and that his rehabilitation proceeds without incident or setback. While he might display some level of rust upon his return, it would also not be unreasonable to think he would be productive. While it might be fashionable in some quarters to think his game is in decline, it is not necessarily a rapid decline. In the three seasons preceding last year’s injury-influenced season, he managed to appear in 94.7 percent of the Caps’ games and posted a per-82 game scoring line of 21-55-76, even. He averaged six goals and 27 assists on power plays per82 games, and he shot 12.5 percent, better than the 12.1 percent over his career prior to that three-year window.
Cheerless’ Take…
Clearly, Nicklas Backstrom was not “Nicklas Backstrom” last season – lowest points per game in his career (0.66), lowest goals per game in his career (0.13), lowest assists per game of his career (0.53), fewest shots on goal per game of his career (1.45), second-fewest goals per 60 minutes of his career (0.40), second-fewest assists per 60 minutes (1.00), fewest points per 60 minutes (1.40), lowest shooting percentage (8.8), second-lowest faceoff winning percentage (46.4). Clearly things were going on. If he does come back at some point this season, he seems bound to improve on these performance numbers, but that would not be the same as his returning to a previous standard of effectiveness.
Potential Milestones to Reach in 2022-2023
- 1100 career games played (he has 1058)
- Top-ten in games played by a player born in Sweden (he has 1,058; Ulf Samuelson is tenth with 1,080)
- 500 career penalty minutes (he has 488)
- Top career plus-minus rating in team history (his plus-111 trails only Rod Langway, plus-116)
- Break a tie with Nicklas Lidstrom for eighth place in goals scored by a player born in Sweden (both with 264)
- Pass Daniel Sedin for fifth place in career points scored by a player born in Sweden (he has 1,011; Sedin has 1.041)
- Pass Daniel Alfredsson for third place in career power play points recorded by a player born in Sweden (he has 410; Alfredsson has 428)
The Big Question… Is Nicklas Backstrom’s career at an end?
It is too early to entertain that notion seriously, but it does lurk in the background. On the plus side, Backstrom has never been the sort of player who depends on speed, being more of the cerebral sort to think the game better than opponents and has uncommonly skilled hands. On the other hand, the injury did seem to more than offset those attributes last season, and his defensive game was a liability for the Caps as the season wore on. One might anticipate that when (if?) he does come back at some point this season, his minutes will be closely managed and monitored.
For this season, at least, Backstrom might be more of a power play specialist than he has been over his career to date, his even strength numbers minimized as he finds a comfort level after the long absence. The Caps seemed to make personnel decisions in the off-season with the possibility of his missing the entire season in mind, although he did remark recently that “[the hip] feels good for the first time in years,” and he is working with his personal trainer to keep his rehabilitation on schedule. It makes for a bit of optimism, but the over-under on his return might be when winter ends and spring begins. That would give him about ten regular season games at season’s end to evaluate where he stands.
In the end…
The dilemma that might be facing the Caps would be if the team is battling on the edge of playoff eligibility late in the season. Do they bring a rusty Nicklas Backstrom back for, say, the last ten or so regular season games in an effort to play him into hockey shape in time for a postseason for which they might not qualify if his skills have eroded too far over his absence? Keeping track of Nicklas Backstrom’s progress in returning to the ice might be a pastime of more than a few Caps fans this season. They’ll be keeping hope alive.
Projection: 10 games, 2-4-6, minus-3
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