Washington Capitals 2022-2023 Previews -- Forwards: Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

“To have a comeback, you have to have a setback.”
-- Lawrence Tureaud (“Mr. T”)

Well, it would seem fans of the Washington Capitals are going to get a good idea of just what Tom Wilson means to the team.  In a perverse way, one hopes that the answer to that is “not much,” because if the answer is “a lot,” then the Caps could be in a heap of trouble to start the season.  Wilson, who could miss the first two months rehabilitating his surgically repaired left knee (torn anterior cruciate ligament), has a reputation outside of Washington as a player who abuses the rules with his physical play.  What most Caps fans probably recognize is that Wilson plays a variety of roles in addition to “keeper of the peace.”  He blossomed into a reliable scorer while paring back his penalty minutes in recent seasons, kills penalties, and is a presence in the pivot on the 1-3-1 power play for the Caps.

For the fourth consecutive season, Wilson average 1.0 or more goals per 60 minutes of ice time (1.0 in 2021-2022) and for the third straight season he averaged at least 1.0 assists per 60 minutes (1.2 in 2021-2022).  For the fourth consecutive season, Wilson averaged more than 0.60 points per game (0.67, second-highest of his career).  If there was an odd stat in his offensive game, it would be that only 54.1 percent of his shot attempts ended up on goal, down from over 60 percent in each of the two previous seasons.  One indicator of his expanding role is that in 2021-2022, Wilson averaged more than four minutes per game playing special teams for the first time in his career (4:08 – 2:32 on power plays and 1:36 on penalty kills).

Odd Wilson Fact… Wilson had an odd start and an odd finish to his season – no goals in his first nine games and no goals in his last eight contests.  He did have seven assists in those first nine games, but he went without a point in his last eight games.  In-between, he scored at a 32-goal pace and shot 20.0 percent (24 goals on 120 shots over 61 games).

Fearless’ Take… Tom Wilson had a career year in 2021-2022 – 24 goals (a career high), 28 assists (also a career high), 52 points (his first 50-point season), five game-winning goals (another career high), two shorthanded goals (tying a career best), plus-13 (career high), plus-14 goal differential at even strength (tops in his career), 151 shots on goal (most of his career), a 15.9 shooting percentage (second-best in his nine seasons), 18:35 in ice time per game (most of his career), and he did it while averaging fewer penalty minutes per game (1.26) than any season of his career.

Cheerless’ Take… Wilson really liked home cookin’ last year.  He had 16 goals on 82 shots (19.5 percent shooting) at Capital One Arena and only eight goals on 69 shots on the road (11.6 percent).  And being physical didn’t seem to go well with wins and losses.  In 30 games in which Wilson was credited with four or more hits, the Caps were 14-11-5.  The same was true of ice time.  In 25 games in which he skated at least 20 minutes, the Caps were 11-8-6.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2022-2023

• 700 career games (he has 647)
• 300 career points (273)
• 1,000 career shots on goal (977)
• 10,000 career minutes played (9,362)

The Big Question… Can Tom Wilson pick up where he left off in 2021-2022?

How do you pick up where you left off (well, except for those last eight games) when where you left off was a career year?  And coming back from a serious injury at that.  Perhaps with the additions of Connor Brown (who seems to be getting first crack at assuming Wilson’s role as top-line right wing) and Dylan Strome, Wilson does not have to pick up immediately where he left off and can be eased back into his familiar roles with the team.  One could envision Wilson returning to assume duties on the third line as he plays himself back into hockey form.  This would likely depress his top line numbers somewhat. 

But the object here is the longer game, to get Wilson ready for the postseason while minimizing risk of any setbacks to his recovery.  Keep in mind that for the average patient, recovery from ACL reconstruction surgery is nine months or so.  Wilson had his surgery on May 24^th, and nine months would put him into February for a full recovery, but being a world class athlete with the presumably the best rehabilitation facilities possible, he seems ahead of schedule to return to the ice.  It would be a lot to expect Tom Wilson to be “Tom Wilson” upon his return, though.  That will almost certainly take longer. The thing to look for is that he is closer to “whole” in April than he might be in December.

In the end…

It is not too much a stretch to think that had Tom Wilson not suffered his knee injury in Game 1 of last spring’s opening round playoff series against the Florida Panthers, the Caps could have won that series against a Panther team that looked very beatable in that series.  That is what he has come to mean for this team.  His development as a scorer, his tempering his physical impulses with the playing time lost to penalty minutes reduced, his assuming a wider variety of roles has made him a critical ingredient to the success of the Capitals.  Fans of other teams can continue to think of him as a one-dimensional player, and a “dirty” one at that.  Capitals fans know better and know that his comeback could be a key to reaching the postseason and going on a long and deep playoff run.

Projection: 43 games, 8-12-20, plus-2