Your First Round Prognostos...Ducks vs. Stars

And, finally…

Anaheim Ducks (4) vs. Dallas Stars (5)

Season series:

Oct. 20: at Stars 3, Ducks 1
Nov. 5: Stars 5 at Ducks 0
Nov. 21: at Stars 2, Ducks 1
Jan. 15: at Ducks 4, Stars 2
Jan. 20: at Stars 5, Ducks 2
Feb. 15: Stars 4 at Ducks 2
Mar. 19: Ducks 2 at Stars 1
Mar. 30: at Ducks 3, Stars 2 (SO)

The Peerless pronounced last summer that it was a mortal lock that the Ducks would not repeat as Stanley Cup winner. Last July, we said…

“…the short off-season is really an underrated factor in a club's likelihood for success in the following season. Anaheim will have a 115-day break between the Cup-clinching game on June 6th and opening night of the 2007-2008 season on September 29th. Compare that with baseball (St. Louis had 155 days from their World Series-clincher in 2006 to opening day 2007), football (the Colts will have 214 days from their Super Bowl win in February to opening night in September), and basketball (the Miami Heat had 133 days from winning the NBA title in June 2006 to opening night in October). A team's ability (or inability) to refresh after a grueling playoff grind that requires 16 wins over four series from mid-April to early-June might be the factor to pay attention to in figuring out who should or should not be a favorite in the Cup sweepstakes the following year.”

Well, wily Brian Burke figured out a way around that problem. Don’t have your best two-way defenseman play his first game until December 16^th,, and don’t have your top goal scorer from the previous year play his first game until February 5^th. Call it the “Roger Clemens” strategy. Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne come into these playoffs with the rust scraped away, but perhaps fresher than a lot of their counterparts. Here is the lowdown on the Ducks’ performance before and after the arrivals…

As far as the series against the Stars was concerned, the Stars were 3-0-0 before both reported, 1-1-0 after Niedermayer reported (but before Selanne did), and 1-1-1 after both had rejoined the Ducks. This does not bode well for the Stars…or anyone else for that matter. Overall, though, here is how the numbers played out for Anaheim:

Goals for/against: 14/24
Power play goals for/against: 8/9
Even-strength goals for/against: 6/14
Power play: 8/45 (17.8%)
Penalty killing: 29/38 (76.3%)
Record, one-goal games: 2-1-0
Record, 3+ goal games: 0-2-0

Regarding Anaheim, their leading scorers had somewhat mixed results against the Stars:

Ryan Getzlaf: 2-8-10, -2
Corey Perry: 1-4-5, -3 (six games)
Chris Kunitz: 2-1-3, -3
Chris Pronger: 1-2-3, -6 (six games)
Todd Bertuzzi: 2-1-3, -3 (six games)

As for Selanne and Niedermayer, Selanne was 0-3-3, -2 in three games against the Stars, while Niedermayer was 2-3-5, -1 in five games. But here is the stunning statistic…Anaheim allowed 96 goals in its first 34 games – a 2.82/game average. Over the last 48 games, the Ducks allowed 88 goals – 1.83/game. The Achilles heel for the Ducks is scoring. They have, by far, the worst per-game scoring average (2.24) among Western Conference playoff teams (San Jose is next: 2.63/game). The addition of Selanne in early February was coincidental with some difference, but not as dramatic as on the defensive side of the ledger. Before Selanne arrived, the Ducks averaged 2.36 goals/game. After his arrival, they averaged 2.50 goals/game.

In goal, J-S Giguere did not have a particularly good year against the Stars: 3-5-0, 2.92, .877. However, he gave up only 24 goals in his last 18 regular season games, with two shutouts and a total of 16 games in which he allowed two or fewer goals.

If there is a team that might derail the Ducks, it is the Stars. They have a similar look about them, and they are statistically a superior team in several respects – better offense (2.89 goals/game to 2.40), power play (18.1% to 16.6%), penalty killing (85.5% to 83.1%). What Anaheim does better will be important, though – better 5-on-5 play (ratio for/against of 1.17 to 1.11 for Dallas), better winning percentage when scoring first (.788 to .625), and better at holding a late lead (winning percentage when leading after two of .909 to .775 for the Stars).

The Stars’ top scorers:

Mike Ribiero: 3-7-10, +6
Brenden Morrow: 5-2-7, +8
Mike Modano: 2-3-5, +1
Niklas Hagman: 5-1-6, +2
Jere Lehtinen: 2-6-8, +5 (six games)

There are two other players to note here. The first is Brad Richards. He came to the Stars from Tampa Bay at the trading deadline, bringing his 51 points – but a -25 – with him. In 12 games with Dallas, he was 2-9-11, -2. Not bad, but he had five assists and was +2 in his first game upon arriving. After that…2-4-6, -4 in 11 games. If the Stars are going to win this series, Richards has to step up.

The other is Sergei Zubov. He is not available for at least Round 1, having had surgery for a sports hernia last week. What this means for the Stars is that the six defensemen likely to dress have precisely the number of games of playoff experience as Chris Pronger will bring to this series (128), and Pronger does not lead the Ducks in playoff experience. That would be Niedermayer, who has 183 games of experience, and only twice in the last seven years has a team on which Niedermayer played not advanced past the first round. Dallas will have its work cut out for them on the back line.

Which brings us to Marty Turco. His heroic effort against Vancouver in last year’s first round (1.29 GAA, .952 save percentage in a seven-game loss to the Canucks) should have retired the idea that he was not a playoff kind of goaltender. But he is still only 11-18 in his playoff career. He was 4-2-1, 1.85, .922 against Anaheim this year, but given his playoff history, those numbers are likely to be discounted quite a bit.

Why Anaheim will win…

Selanne and Niedermayer are veterans who are comparatively rested. They were important, if not the most important cogs among the skaters in last year’s Cup run. And if this is going to be a low-scoring, closely fought series (we expect it will be), there will be an important stat to keep in mind -- Giguere is 12-1 in overtime games in the playoffs.

Why Dallas will win…

Anaheim won’t intimidate them. Dallas played them often and played them successfully this year. Turco has played well against the Ducks, and he is the sort of feisty character that can rise to the occasion and hold his own against the rough-and-tumble Ducks.

Dallas’ chance in this one probably hinge on Turco being able to steal games. He won’t be able to steal enough of them.

Anaheim in six.