Your First Round Prognostos...Wild vs. Avalanche

Next on our tour of the Western Conference first round matchups…

Minnesota Wild (3) vs. Colorado Avalanche (6)

Season series:

Oct. 21: at Wild 3, Avalanche 2
Oct. 28: at Avalanche 3, Wild 1
Nov. 11: at Avalanche 4, Wild 2
Nov. 18: at Wild 4, Avalanche 1
Jan. 24: Wild 3 at Avalanche 2
Mar. 17: at Wild 3, Avalanche 1
Mar. 30: at Wild 3, Avalanche 2 (OT)
Apr. 6: at Avalanche 4, Wild 3 (SO)

Here is a series that might fly under the radar in its entirety. A pity…although the Wild have a 5-2-1 record in this series, it has been generally hard and evenly fought, with half of the contests of the one-goal variety, and two of those going to extra time. And, both teams come into this series on mini-runs…Minnesota was 4-0-1 in the last five games of the regular season; Colorado was 5-0-1. They did it in rather different ways. Colorado averaged 3.5 goals of offense in their 5-0-1 finish, while Minnesota averaged allowing only 1.4 goals a game in their five-game season-ending streak. Minnesota had the advantage in the season series between the two teams:

Goals for/against: 22/18
Power play goals for/against: 9/7
Even-strength goals for/against: 13/11
Power play: 9/28 (32.1%)
Penalty killing: 26/33 (78.8%)
Record, one-goal games: 4-0-0
Record, 3+ goal games: 1-0-0

Minnesota made the most of an average number (3.5/game) of power plays in this series. In fact, it is the one part of their otherwise average offense (18^th in goals/game) that shines. They finished seventh in the league in power play conversion rate (18.9%). It just isn’t a club that draws a lot of penalties (21^st in total power play opportunities).

Looking at the Wild top scorers and their performances in this series:

Marian Gaborik: 2-2-4, even (six games)
Pierre Marc-Bouchard: 1-3-4, even
Brian Rolston: 4-4-8, +2
Pavol Demitra: 1-6-7, +1 (five games)
Brent Burns: 2-3-5, +1
Mikko Koivu: 1-3-4, +3 (seven games)

The Wild is not a team that scores a lot, but if they are going to get something from somewhere else, it might be Stephane Veilleux. He had only 11 goals in 77 games this year, but did go 2-1-3, +2 in seven games against Colorado.

In goal, Niklas Backstrom had a fine year – 33-13-8, 2.30, .920. He had a better one against Colorado – 4-1-0, 1.98, .930. Given the difficulty the Wild have on offense from time to time, one would think he’d have to continue at this level of performance.

Colorado might create the impression of being a much better offense than that of Minnesota, but that is somewhat deceptive. The Avalanche averaged only 0.05 goals/game more than did the Wild this year. Where they are substantially superior is in five-on-five play. Colorado finished third in the league this year in five-on-five goals for/against ratio (Minnesota was 19^th). If Colorado can stay out of the box (and they did only allow 3.5 power plays/game this year against the Wild), this could be a long series.

Looking at the top scorers for the Avalanche this year and their success against the Wild:

Paul Stastny: 3-4-7, even (seven games)
Andrew Brunette: 2-1-3, even
Milan Hejduk: 2-2-4, even (six games)
Wojtek Wolski: 3-4-7, +4 (seven games)
Joe Sakic: 2-6-8, +2 (seven games)

The key, though, for the Avalanche might be three other players – two who will start the series and one who won’t. First, the one who won’t – Marek Svatos is out with a knee injury. His 26 goals in 62 games is quite a bit of offense to be missing. As for the two who will be there, both – Ryan Smyth and Peter Forsberg – have missed a lot of time this year. Smyth missed 27 games to injury this year and is only 3-6-9, +1, in 19 games since returning on Valentine’s Day from a prolonged absence. Forsberg joined the team in March and is 1-13-14, +7 in nine games. But, can he stay healthy?

In goal, Jose Theodore has had something of a renaissance this year. Although his 28-21-3, 2.44, .910, three shutout performance doesn’t put him among the league leaders, he finished the season 5-0-1, 2.42, .912, with one shutout. He had a shootout win and overtime loss to the Wild in that stretch.

Why Minnesota will win…

Defense and goaltending wins at this time of year. It is a style with which the Wild is comfortable. Both special team squads are superior to those of Colorado – Minnesota ranks in the top ten in both power play and penalty killing; Colorado is in the bottom ten in both.

Why Colorado will win…

Having Smyth and Forsberg in the lineup helps. And there is this – the Avalanche had 325 man-games lost to injury this year. No playoff team in the west had more (only Boston among all playoff teams had more). It is a team that is probably as healthy as it is going to get, and still they managed a sixth place finish and a season-series winning record over the Wild. They are a pretty resilient bunch.

We like Colorado’s chances to advance from this round, provided Forsberg doesn’t get hurt…

Colorado in seven.