Your first round prognostos...Sharks vs. Flames

Next up…

San Jose Sharks (2) vs. Calgary Flames (7)

Season series:

Oct. 22: Sharks 4 at Flames 1
Jan. 3: Flames 3 at Sharks 2 (OT)
Jan. 30: at Flames 5, Sharks 4
Feb. 12: Flames 4 at Sharks 3 (OT)

Are the Sharks the Red Wings-lite? 43-44-51 wins the last three seasons, and only one conference final to show for it. This time, they come into the playoffs with a 49-win season and as the hottest team in the league…sort of.

From February 21^st through April 1^st, the Sharks did not lose a game in regulation – 18-0-2 over a 20 game stretch. Then, they lost to the Los Angeles Kings and again to the Dallas Stars in the regular season finale. So…are the Sharks the 18-0-2 team that was closing the season, or are they the good, but unremarkably so (31-21-8 before that 20-game run) squad that played through February 20^th? And, does losing in the last two take some lustre off of the long streak?

Certainly the Flames will provide a suitable test for that question, for the Sharks could only manage a 1-1-2 record against the Flames before that 20-game streak. For the Sharks in those four games:

Goals for/against: 13/12
Power play goals for/against: 5/2
Even-strength goals for/against: 7/9
Power play: 5/20 (25.0%)
Penalty killing: 10/12 (83.3%)
Record, one-goal games: 0-1-2
Record, 3+ goal games: 1-0-0

The Red Wing analogy extends to the special teams. Getting 20 chances in four games, especially compared with only 12 for Calgary, is quite an advantage for the Sharks. San Jose scored at least one power play goal in each game of this series, and had two in its 4-1 win in October. It has been an important ingredient to scratching out four of a possible eight points out of this series.

Looking at the Sharks’ top scorers and their performances in this series:

Joe Thornton: 0-1-1, -4
Milan Mihalek: 3-1-4, even
Patrick Marleau: 1-0-1, -1
Joe Pavelski: 0-0-0, +2
Jonathan Cheechoo: 1-2-3, -2

It isn’t a particularly dominating performance from the top guns. If there is someone else to watch, it would be Patrick Rismiller, who has goals in each of the last two games against the Flames, although he has only one goal in 26 games since scoring against Calgary on February 12^th.

The “X” factor for the Sharks might be defenseman Brian Campbell. Since coming to the Sharks in a trade With Buffalo, he is 3-16-19, +9 in 20 games. He provides some spark from the blue line that wasn’t there for the Sharks over the first 60 games or so.

In goal, Evgeni Nabokov is a leading Vezina Trophy candidate, and deservedly so. He appeared in 77 games, going 46-21-8, 2.14, .910. Calgary, however, appeared to solve him as well as anyone could this year. Nabokov is only 1-1-2, 3.16, .849 against the Flames.

It’s been quite a while since Calgary faced the Sharks. In the 25 games since they last met, the Flames are 13-10-2, 6-7-0 in their last 13. It is not a team coming in on a high. But they have had success against the Sharks, with some solid performance from their top guns:

Jarome Iginla: 3-1-4, +2
Kristian Huselius: 0-3-3, -1
Daymond Langkow: 2-2-4, +1
Dion Phaneuf: 2-3-5, +1
Alex Tanguay: 1-2-3, +2

The Sharks also have three goals and an assist from Owen Nolan. If the Flames can get that kind of support from guys like Matthew Lombardi (one assist in four games) or Craig Conway (two assists in four games), it would be that much more pressure on the Sharks. Conroy has been injured, but is expected to return for Game 1.

Miikka Kiprusoff had a solid year in goal. Sometimes, he gets somewhat lost in the shuffle of any discussion of top goalies – Brodeur, Luongo, and this year Nabokov seem to dominate that discussion – but he has been a rock for the Flames. He appeared in 76 games and finished fourth in the league in total minutes played. However, his numbers this year show some slippage from last year’s, which were down from the previous year. From a 42-20-11, 2.07, .923 season two years ago, he was 39-26-10, 2.69, .906 this year. It’s not a lot of slippage, but some. He’s going to need the Flames to score some in front of him.

Why San Jose will win…

Discounting the last two games, this club was on fire to close the year, outscoring their opponents 59-35 in their 18-0-2 run. The Sharks have the size to counter the hard-working style Calgary will bring. The addition of Brian Campbell at the trading deadline gave the Sharks more scoring balance. If it comes down to special teams, the Sharks have the best penalty killers in the league, and on both sides of special teams they outrank the Flames by a wide margin.

Why Calgary will win…

They, like the Predators playing the Red Wings, are the sort of team that can give this opponent fits. In Jarome Iginla and Dion Phaneuf, the Flames have high-end skill players who are not afraid of – and in fact relish – mixing it up physically. Statistically, they are unimpressive, especially on special teams (being second overall in total times shorthanded is one statistic that comes jumping off the page, especially since San Jose has the third fewest such situations faced and, more important, is sixth in total power plays awarded), but they are greater than the sum of their parts and have had success against this team this year.

We’re going with the upset in this one, the Sharks frustration at not being able to advance to a final to continue…

Calgary in seven.