Your first round prognostos...Red Wings vs. Predators

Turning our attention to the Western Conference…

Detroit Red Wings (1) vs. Nashville Predators (8)

Season series:

Nov. 7: at Red Wings 3, Predators 2 (SO)
Nov. 22: at Predators 3, Red Wings 2
Dec. 10: Red Wings 2 at Predators 1
Feb. 12: at Predators 4, Red Wings 2
Mar. 9: at Red Wings 4, Predators 3
Mar. 15: Predators 3 at Red Wings 1
Mar. 20: Red Wings 6 at Predators 3
Mar. 30: at Red Wings 1, Predators 0 (OT)

The Red Wings have averaged 51 wins a year over the past four seasons leading to this one. They averaged scoring 251 goals, allowing 200. They also have no championships and made it to the Western Conference final only once. This year, they won 54 games, scored 257 goals, allowed 184.

Part of a pattern?

The Red Wings are a very good team. Over an 82-game season, their superior depth and skill at both ends of the ice is the sort that can post 50-plus wins on a consistent basis. But what about over seven games? Well, they played eight against the Predators this year – a team that was given little chance of success this year. They finished 5-3-0, two of those wins coming in extra time. And it is not as if the Red Wings have been statistically dominant, with a notable exception:

Goals for/against: 20/19
Power play goals for/against: 10/4
Even-strength goals for/against: 10/14
Power play: 10/53 (18.9%)
Penalty killing: 41/45 (91.1%)
Record, one-goal games: 4-1-0
Record, 3+ goal games: 1-0

The Red Wings have averaged 6.6 power play opportunities a game in this series (they averaged 4.6/game against the rest of the league for the season). That is a lot of time, on the Predators’ part, to be expending effort against what is already a prolific offense.

Looking at the Red Wing top scorers, and their success against the Predators:

Pavel Datsyuk: 3-3-6, even
Henrik Zetterberg: 1-4-5, -5
Nicklas Lidstrom: 0-4-4, -4
Brian Rafalski: 1-1-2, even
Daniel Cleary: 1-1-2, -2 (4 games)

It is somewhat deceptive to speak in terms of “leading scorers” with respect to the Red Wings. They have 18 players with points in double-digits. But there is one other Red Wing who bears watching. Johan Franzen was 6-2-8, -1, in his eight games against Nashville this year, and he has 15 goals in 16 games since March 1^st. He’s been especially lethal on the power play (14 of his 27 goals), and in a series that might turn on such chances, he could be an important player.

Dominik Hasek has fine numbers in goal in the regular season series: 3-1-0, 2.23, .913, with one shutout. But one wonders a bit concerning his end-of-year performance. True, he is 8-2-0 in his last ten appearances, and he has a 2.30 GAA. However, his save percentage of .897 is not an excitement-inducing number, and in both losses he was pulled – once after giving up four goals on ten shots over 32 minutes, the other after giving up three goals on six shots in eight minutes.

Chris Osgood has numbers that, had he achieved them over 60 games, would be worth of Vezina consideration. In 43 games, he was 27-9-4, 2.09, .914. In this series he was 2-2-0, 2.49, .912.

Nashville, on the other hand, is pretty much playing with house money at this point. Few expected them to be here, testimony to the fine job Barry Trotz did behind the bench (why does he remind us of the preacher at the end of the movie in “Beetlejuice?”).

Nashville is, as one might expect from an eighth-place club, pretty much in the middle third of most statistical categories, but there is an exception. The Predators had the third best penalty killing mark in the league. But even this works against them in this series. They were 21^st in total times shorthanded. Given the Red Wings’ success on the power play in this series (half of their total goals scored), Nashville has to make this a “five guys” series…they have to keep five skaters on the ice as much as possible to have any chance of winning.

Looking at their leading scorers, here is how they fared in this series:

J-P Dumont: 2-5-7, +1
Jason Arnott: 1-5-6, +5
Alexander Radulov: 4-3-7, -7
Martin Erat: 4-4-8, +4
David Legwand: 0-2-2, +3 (4 games)

These are pretty good numbers, but what is noteworthy here is the appearance of so many “plus” numbers (Radulov being the exception). Compare that with the “minuses” among Detroit’s leading scorers. If the Predators can keep this a five-on-five matchup, they can compete.

Regardless, the Predators’ defense will be tested. And that means Dan Ellis – an unlikely candidate to be manning the Predators’ playoff net – will be the man in the spotlight. The rookie has never appeared in an NHL playoff game, and he has to make his debut against one of the flagship franchises in the league playing at the top of its game. But it’s not as if Ellis has been a stiff against the Red Wings this year, either. 1-1-1, 1.75, .950 are pretty good numbers on which to build a reservoir of confidence. In a lot of ways, Ellis is emblematic of this team and their season, as David Climer’s article in this morning’s Nashville Tennessean shows.

Why Detroit will win…

The Red Wings are a top-three team in most statistical categories; they are, of course, the President’s Cup winner for this season as top point getter. They enter the playoffs on a 7-1-1 tear. They have two capable goaltenders, and that sort of depth and balance extends to the rest of their roster. They are – on paper – the dominant team of this tournament.

Why Nashville will win…

They don’t play the games on paper. Nashville is not likely to be intimidated by the Red Wings. It seemed no one in the Central was (Detroit had a comparatively pedestrian 17-12-3 record against their division counterparts – the third best record in the Central). Nashville is precisely the kind of team that can give the Red Wings fits – a lunch-pail, grind-it-out sort of team that just keeps plugging away. They might not win, but they are going to make things very difficult for the Red Wings.

Detroit in six.