The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
It’s another Saturday Night Southeast Cage Match! The Washington Capitals host the Florida
Panthers in a key divisional tilt. It is a contest that…
Aw, hell... it’s the “Battle of the 20-Somethings”…
- As in ranked in the 20’s in scoring (Caps tied for 23rd, Panthers tied for 20th.
- As in ranked in the 20’s in defense (tied for 29th, 27th).
- As in ranked in the 20’s in penalty killing (27th and 21st).
- As in ranked in the 20’s in 5-on-5 (27th and…oops, the Panthers are 30th).
- As in ranked in the 20’s in minor penalties (24th and tied for 20th).
- As in ranked in the 20’s in winning percentage in games decided by three or more goals (tied for 24th – last, and tied for 20th)
The short version? They’re not
so good. And this is the defending
division champion (Florida) and the four-time defending division champion
before them (Washington).
The difference between the teams is that one of them is actually
playing decent hockey. It is not the
home team. The Panthers are 3-0-1 in
their last four games, although you might say their competition has been weak.
They split two decisions with 11th place Winnipeg, a 6-3 win and a
3-2 overtime loss. Their other two wins came at the expense of 14th
place Buffalo, in a 4-3 decision, and in a Gimmick over 13th place
Philadelphia, 3-2.
Still, in posting that 3-0-1 record in their last four games, the
Panthers have shown a competence the Caps have not. For one thing, they have been able to score –
14 goals over those four games, including twice posting more than four goals,
something the Caps have yet to do this season.
And at the other end, they killed off 10 of 12 penalties in those four
games. An 83.3 percent penalty kill rate
is not what one might regard as excellent, but it certainly beats the 8-for-13
(61.5 percent) posted by the Caps over their last four games.
Here is how the teams stack up overall so far in the tale of the tape…
1. In Florida’s case, balance =
success. In their 3-0-1 mini-run, 11
different players have goals, 17 different players have points. A pair of Tomas’ lead the Panthers in
scoring in those four games – Fleischmann (2-3-5) and Kopecky (1-4-5).
2. After going 2-for-24 (8.3
percent) on the power play in their previous five games, the Panthers are
5-for-14 in their last four contests (35.7 percent).
3. One ingredient of the
Panthers’ recent success – shots allowed.
In their last four games Panther goaltenders have faced only 23.6 shots
per 60 minutes.
4. Only one team has been
involved in more three-goal decisions than the Panthers so far this
season. In ten games played, Florida is
2-4 in such games, although each of their last three games were one-goal
decisions.
5. Last season, Florida earned
32 of their 94 standings points in games going to extra time, a 7-18 record in
such games. So far this season they have
earned three of their nine points in that fashion (1-1).
1. Comparing the Caps to the
Panthers over their last four games, the Caps are 1-3-0. They are 4-for-14 on the power play, but only
8-for-13 on the penalty kill. They have
been outscored by that 8-4 margin on special teams, and have been outscored 8-6
at even strength.
2. When you score only ten goals
in four games, as the Caps have done, balance is not quite the virtue it is as
when you score 16, as Florida has over their last four. Eight different Caps have those ten goals,
three of them by Mike Ribeiro and seven other Caps with one apiece.
3. Mike Ribeiro leads the Caps
in goals and points over the last four games (3-2-5), with Alex Ovechkin and
Nicklas Backstrom right behind (both with 1-3-4 marks). Hey, all of them are at or better than a
point a game in these four games, what gives?
Well, for one thing, the rest of the point scoring is evenly distributed
among forwards and defensemen (six points for each group), but only three
forwards not already mentioned in this paragraph have points (Troy Brouwer,
Wojtek Wolski, and Marcus Johansson), It’s
that old secondary scoring thing again.
4. Braden Holtby stopped 63 of
74 shots faced in the Caps’ last four games, while Michal Neuvirth stopped 27
of 32 shots. A .851 save percentage and
a .844 save percentage -- .849 overall.
The position is goalTENDER, not goalALLOWER.
5. If the Caps lose this contest in regulation,
it will make it their worst 12-game start since going 1-11-0 to start the
1981-1982 season.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Florida: Jose Theodore
That the Panthers are 3-0-1 in their last four games is not a product
of goaltending. Jose Theodore might be 3-0-0
over Florida’s last four contests, but Theodore has a goals-against average of
2.60 and a save percentage of .897.
Those are Vezina Trophy numbers compared to what the Caps are doing
these days, but Theodore hasn’t really stolen any of the wins. He has faced
only 25 shots per 60 minutes in his streak.
His career record against the Caps is not much better, a 2.58 GAA and
.902 save percentage to go along with a 7-10-1 record in 20 career appearances.
Washington: Jason Chimera
Through 11 games Jason Chimera is fifth on the team in shots on goal
(23) and has nothing to show for it.
This is the longest he has gone to start a season without a goal since
he went 15 games without one to start the 2006-2007 season. One could say that the Caps are not getting
enough goal scoring from Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom (five goals
between them), but the Caps are not getting enough scoring from anywhere these
days (save for Mike Ribeiro). Getting
some support from underneath would be helpful.
Keys:
1. The Early Bird Catches the
Worm. Florida has allowed 12 first
period goals and 14 second period goals in ten games. Here is the Caps’ opportunity to improve on
their 12th place rank in first period goals scored or, perhaps more
important, improve on the paltry six goals scored in the second period (third
worst).
2. Don't be “Lame” in the Middle
Frame. The Caps have those six second
period goals. They also have allowed
19. That minus-13 goal differential
accounts for almost the entire goal-differential (minus-15) the Caps have
compiled in regulation through 11 games.
3. Be the Puck. The Caps skaters have had their defensive
lapses, to be sure, but on the other hand Washington goaltenders have had to
face only 26.5 shots per game, too. That
is hardly a heavy volume (over the full season to date it would rank as sixth
fewest). The goalies simply have to
start stopping more pucks, especially at even strength. The old proverb goes that a goalie needs to
be a team’s best penalty killer, but the even strength save percentage over the
last four games of .866 is abominable.
In the end, here we are. Two
games against a very beatable opponent, and a divisional opponent at that. But do not take the Panthers lightly; they are
playing effectively, if their defense and goaltending is a bit leaky. The Caps are five points out of a playoff
spot, but the eighth place team – the Carolina Hurricanes – have two games in
hand on the Caps. If they don’t get two
points tonight – four points in the next four days at the expense of the
Panthers in this home-and-home set – well…
Capitals 4 – Panthers 3
