“My yesterdays walk with me. They keep step, they are gray
faces that peer over my shoulder.”
-- William Golding
Brett Connolly was a big scorer in junior hockey. In his last three seasons with the Prince
George Cougars in the Western Hockey League, he scored 86 goals in 140
games. He looked the part of a
sixth-overall draft pick (by the Tampa Bay Lightning) in 2010. His early career numbers in the NHL could not
match that level of output, or even come close.
In his first five NHL seasons, split between the Lightning and the
Boston Bruins, Connolly recorded 27 goals in 210 games.
And then, he came to the Washington Capitals as a free agent
in 2016. In Washington, Connolly settled
into a third line role and found some measure of his old scoring touch. He scored 15 goals in just 66 games in
2016-2017. It was for him a career high
and helped him earn a two-year/$3 million contract with the Caps.
Connolly matched that goal total in 2017-2018 in 70 games
played, one off his career best (71 games with the Boston Bruins in
2015-2016). More important to the Caps’
success this past season, he atoned for a seven game postseason in 2017 in
which he did not record a point by scoring six goals and posting nine points in
the 24-game march to the Stanley Cup. He
was also a remarkable efficient shooter.
Of 571 players recording 50 or more shots on goal last season, Connolly
finished third in shooting percentage (22.4), behind Colorado’s Alexander
Kerfoot and Vegas’ William Karlsson (both at 23.4 percent). No player in the NHL with 15 or more goals
did it with less average ice time per game than Connolly (12:00).
Odd Connolly Fact…
Following off a comment above, Brett Connolly was the only
player in the NHL last season to score 15 or more goals and do it averaging
less than one shot on goal per game (0.96).
Fearless’ Take…
Brett Connolly might not get the attention or the
appreciation he deserves for that basic skill of scoring goals. He is one of five Capitals who recorded at
least 15 goals in each of the last two seasons (Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie,
Nicklas Backstrom, and Evgeny Kuznetsov are the others. He is one of six Caps to record at least ten
even strength goals over the past two seasons (adding Lars Eller to the list
above). It is the sort of supplemental
scoring successful teams need. Last
season the Caps lost only one game in regulation among the 14 contests in which
Connolly scored a goal.
Cheerless’ Take…
Connolly has value as a goal scorer, but it doesn’t seem to
extend to other parts of the game. He
has skated a total – not an average, a total – of 2:05 in shorthanded ice time
in 136 games over two seasons with the Caps.
He did get more power play time last season (1:26 per game as a
replacement for Justin Williams). He was
not especially effective in high level possession numbers (46.53 Corse-for
percentage at 5-on-5/minus-2.04 Relative CF, both ninth among 13 Caps forwards
playing at least 500 5-on-5 minutes; numbers from Corsica.hockey).
Potential Milestones:
- 400 NHL games (he has 346)
- 200 Penalty minutes (he has 172)
- 500 shots on goal (he has 442)
- 5,000 minutes played (he has 4,098)
- 50 even strength goals (he has 45)
The Big Question… Is
Brett Connolly really that efficient?
Brett Connolly’s contributions on offense are predicated on
a particular attribute – efficiency. In
136 regular season games with the Caps, he has 30 goals on 148 shots, a 20.3
percent shooting percentage. Of 559
players recording at least 100 shots on goal over the last two seasons, none
have as good a shooting percentage (Montreal’s Paul Byron has a 19.9 percent
shooting percentage). And this begs the
question, is Connolly that good or that lucky?
It has been quite a departure from his earlier career numbers. Over his first five seasons with Tampa Bay
and Boston, he had 27 goals on 294 shots, a 9.2 percent shooting percentage. In half of the games in which he scored goals
last season (seven of 14), Connolly scored on his only shot on goal. Last season was the first in which he
averaged less than a shot on goal per game.
Here is a fact to keep in mind as this season begins for
Connolly, coming off a 22.4 percent shooting percentage performance in 70 games. Since the 2005-2006 season, only one player
has had more than one season of appearing in at least 65 games and posting a
shooting percentage over 20 percent.
Colorado’s Alex Tanguay did it three times. There were 22 other players, including
Connolly, who did it once.
That shot volume will have to increase in frequency if his
shooting percentage regresses. However,
there is that possibility. Connolly did
have an 18.5 percent shooting percentage in 2016-2017, his first with the Caps,
and still posted 15 goals. Even that
percentage might be stretching possibilities, given that only Tanguay and
Antoine Brunette have more seasons since 2005-2006 with playing in 65 games and
a shooting percentage over 18.5 percent (three apiece). Whether he can be as streaky as he has been
in the past might tell the tale. For
instance, over an 11-game stretch last season (December 2 – December 28),
Connolly had six goals on 11 shots (54.5 percent).
In the end…
Brett Connolly being reclaimed off the NHL scrap heap and
becoming a productive player for the Caps is one of the better stories for the
club over the past couple of years. But
the NHL never stands still, and upgrading when the opportunity presents itself
is at or near the top of every general manager’s to-do list. Connolly is entering the last year of a
contract with a $1.5 million cap hit this season. And, as the biggest offensive contributor
among the forwards in the position of becoming an unrestricted free agent after
this season (Devante Smith-Pelly is also an unrestricted free agent after this
season, but he is not quite the offensive player Connolly is), there might some cause to look over his shoulder at a recent signing.
At first glance, it would seem that the signing of free
agent Sergei Shumakov is going to set up a battle at the right wing with
Connolly to see who mans the third line on that side and who plays the right
side on the fourth line. It could give
the Caps uncommon depth at right wing, with Tom Wilson and T.J. Oshie, where it
is possible that all four finish the upcoming season with double digits in
goals.
Projection: 72 games, 15-13-28, even
Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America
