The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The two-game home stand comes to an end for the Washington
Capitals on Sunday night when they host the Calgary Flames at Capital One
Arena. This meeting will end the season
series between the teams, the Caps winning the first matchup less than two
weeks ago, a 5-2 win in Calgary in which the Caps broke a tie late in the
second period, scored a pair in the third to take a commanding lead, then gave
up a window dressing goal in the last minute for the final margin.
Then and Now…
This will be the 99th meeting of the teams in the
all-time series, the Caps with a 40-43-2 record (with 13 ties). In 50 of those games on home ice, the Caps
are 26-16-2, with six ties. Since
2005-2006, Washington Is 12-5-2 overall against the Flames and 5-2-2 on home
ice. The Caps have won the last three
games overall in the series, including the last meeting in Washington, a 4-3
win last February 1st.
Active Leaders vs. Opponent…
Caps vs. Flames:
- Goals: Ovechkin (11)
- Assists: Backstrom (15)
- Points: Ovechkin (25)
- Plus-minus: Backstrom (plus-6)
- Penalty minutes: Wilson (12)
- Power play goals: Ovechkin (8)
- Power play points: Ovechkin (15)
- Shorthanded goals: none
- Game-winning goals: Backstrom, Ovechkin (2)
- Overtime goals: none
- Shots on goal: Ovechkin (104)
- Goaltender wins: Holtby (6)
- Goals against average: Holtby (3.05)
- Save percentage: Holtby (.894)
- Shutouts: none
Flames vs. Caps:
- Goals: Monahan (7)
- Assists: Gaudreau (10)
- Points: Gaudreau, Monahan (11)
- Plus-minus: Monahan (plus-3)
- Penalty minutes: Giordano (16)
- Power play goals: Lindholm (2)
- Power play points: Giordano, Gaudreau (3)
- Shorthanded goals: none
- Game-winning goals: Monahan
- Overtime goals: Monahan (2)
- Shots on goal: Monahan (38)
- Goaltender wins: none
- Goals against average: Talbot (4.14)
- Save percentage: Talbot (.862)
- Shutouts: none
Noteworthy Opponents…
Like father, like son.
Matthew Tkachuk has played in 239 games through 15 games of his fourth
NHL season and has 187 points. His
father, Keith Tkachuk, appeared in 232 games over his first four NHL seasons
(1991-1992 through 1994-1995), posting 191 points. The mix is different, Matthew with only 77
goals at this point compared to the 94 his father recorded in his first four
seasons, but the similarities are there.
Among those similarities are orneriness.
Keith logged 636 minutes in penalties over his first four seasons, but
that was a different era entirely. Son
Matthew has 248 penalty minutes in his fourth season, and he is one of only
four players in the league to have posted at least 75 goals and at least 225
penalty minutes over the last four years.
Tkachuk has displayed consistent and significant improvement
in scoring in his early career, going 13-25-48 in 76 games as a rookie in
2016-2017, followed by seasons of 24-25-49 (68 games) and 34-43-77 (80 games)
last season. He is on a similar
trajectory this season, going 6-7-13 in 15 games to date, going into Calgary’s
contest in Columbus against the Blue Jackets on Saturday night. His pattern to date has been pairs. His six goals were scored in three two-goal
games, in wins against Florida and Nashville, and a pair (including the late,
game-tying goal) in an overtime loss to Los Angeles. Tkachuk is 1-3-4, even, in six career games
against the Capitals.
Mark Giordano is the best known among Flames’ defensemen,
but T.J. Brodie deserves a mention. Brodie,
now in his tenth season in Calgary, will tie Jamie Macoun for fifth place on
the all-time Calgary list of games played by a defenseman in franchise history
(586) when he takes the ice tonight in Columbus and take fifth place all to
himself when he skates against the Caps on Sunday. Since assuming a role as a fixture on the
blue line in 2013-2014, he has become a reliable, if not elite point getter
with six consecutive seasons of 30-plus points coming into this season. That consistency over the years has
positioned Brodie high in the all-time scoring rankings in franchise history
among defensemen – eighth in goals (44), fifth in assists (210), fifth in
points (254), and seventh in game-winning goals (11). Calgary is going to have a decision to make
at year-end regarding Brodie. His current
five-year/$23.252 million contract will expire and the 30-year old (he turns 30
next June) will be an unrestricted free agent.
What complicates the matter for the Flames is that they will be in a
similar situation with 29-year old defenseman Travis Hamonic (he turns 30 next
August), whose seven-year/$27 million deal will expire after this season. The state of negotiations with the defensemen
is somewhat muddy.
Brodie is 0-7-7,minus-1, in 13 career games against Washington.
Cam Talbot, who took the loss in the Flames’ first meeting
against the Caps a couple of weeks ago in his last appearance going into
Saturday’s games, is the only active goaltender in the Calgary system to have
faced the Capitals. So, will David
Rittich get his first shot at Washington?
Between the fact that Calgary is playing back-to-back games this weekend,
and Rittich has been unsteady in recent appearances (2-2-1, 3.72, .888 in his
last five appearances), he might get that chance. Rittich, an undrafted goaltender, signed a one-year
contract with Calgary in June 2016 after two seasons with BK Mladá Boleslav in
the Czech Extraliga. He appeared in only
one game with the Flames the following season, spending most of his time with
the Stockton Heat in the AHL, but he was signed to a one-year extension in 2017-2018 and another in 2018-2019. Last
July, Rittich inked a two-year/$5.5 million contract that extends through the
2020-2021 season.
Last season was Rittich’s first as the number one goaltender
for the Flames, albeit not clearly the incumbent in that role. He started 42 of the team’s 82 games and
posted a respectable 2.61 goals against average and .911 save percentage with
one shutout. The odd thing about
Rittich, and Flames goalies in general, is the lack of history among them since
the franchise’s founding in Atlanta 47 seasons ago. Rittich’s 79 appearances ranks 15th
all-time among Flames’ goaltenders, and with 35 more appearances this season
(he has 12 at the moment), he would jump into the top-ten, tying Don Edwards
(114 appearances). And it is not as if
his other numbers fade in that context.
Among 18 goalies with at least 50 games played for the franchise,
Rittich ranks eighth in goals against average (2.76) and fifth in save
percentage (.908). Odd Rittich fact… Going
into Saturday’s games, Rittich is tied for the league lead in both starts (12)
and total goals allowed (36). As noted,
if he gets the nod it will be his first appearance against the Caps.
1. Calgary scored
three goals on six power play chances in their first two road games this
season, but they are 1-for-22 since (4.5 percent) going into their game in
Columbus on Saturday night.
2. The Flames are one
of three teams to take ten or more penalties in a road game this season. They took 11 (10 minors and one misconduct)
in a 4-1 loss to Los Angeles on October 19th.
3. Only the Caps have
blocked more shots on the road this season (145 in nine road games) than the
Flames, who have 141 blocked shots in nine road games. In a related stat, the Flames have been
ill-behaved guests in one respect this season.
The 73 takeaways with which they have been credited on the road lead the
league, ten more than the Colorado Avalanche.
4. Calgary was 50
percent or better in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 in five of their
first six road games, but they are under 50 percent in each of their last three
road contests, going 43.15 percent overall.
5. Going into
Saturday night’s game against Columbus, the Flames have but one win on the road
in regulation so far (they have two in extra time). They got a third period goal from Mikael
Backlund to scratch out a 2-1 win in Anaheim against the Ducks on October 20th.
1. Going into
Saturday’s action, the Caps are the only team in the league that is top-five in
both power play (25.0 percent/fifth) and penalty killing (85.7 percent/fifth).
2. The Caps and
Flames were tied for most times shorthanded overall going into Saturday’s
schedule (56 times apiece). The rank 1-2
in minor penalties taken (Calgary: 62; Washington: 60).
3. If practice makes
perfect, the Caps are getting a lot of it taking faceoffs. The 953 draws taken rank first in the league,
62 more than Calgary (yes, these stats are largely a product of these two teams
tied for most games played (15) to date).
4. One stat not
dependent on games played is shooting percentage, and the Caps lead the league
in that category (12.8 percent).
5. The Caps continue
their high level of production in the second period. When they scored in the middle frame against
Buffalo on Friday, it kept the streak alive at 15 straight games with second
period goals. The 24 second period goals
they have (first in the league) is only one goal fewer than the total the
Chicago Blackhawks have for the season (25).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Calgary: Travis Hamonic
There are 13 defensemen in the league averaging more than 21
minutes of ice time per game and recording a minus-7 or worse overall. Whether they are defensemen who get the tough
minutes against tough opponents, have played in bad luck, are in slumps, or are
just bad, it is quite a collection.
There are some big names on it, too.
Drew Doughty (24:07 per game/minus-7), Brent Burns (26:19 per game,
minus-10), Erik Karlsson (25:20 per game/minus-12), and Ryan Suter (24:08 per
game/minus-10). Dmitry Orlov is on it
(21:48 per game/minus-7) for the Caps, and Travis Hamonic is on it for the
Flames (21:31 per game/minus-7). Hamonic
happens to be the only defenseman on that list yet to record a goal, and his
two points are tied for fewest in the group (Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Mike
Green).
Hamonic spent seven seasons in New York with the Islanders,
posting 26 goals and 146 points in 444 games.
The numbers do not jump off the page, but Calgary thought enough of his
performance to acquire him (with a conditional fourth round draft pick) in June
2017 for a 2018 first round draft pick and a conditional second round pick in
2019. The Islanders might have made the
trade as part of what would be an unsuccessful effort to keep John Tavares in
blue and orange, but nevertheless, the Flames assumed the last three years of a contract paying
Hamonic $3.86 million per year. That
deal expires at the end of this season, and his slow start (0-2-2, minus-7) has
not given much comfort about the idea of resigning him. He has shown some signs of offensive life
recently with assists in two of his last four games. Hamonic is 5-7-12, minus-6, in 29 career games
against Washington.
Washington: Chandler Stephenson
Pretty, wasn’t it?
That goal Chandler Stephenson had to finish a four-on-one break against
Buffalo on Friday night…
Offense is what fans generally notice, and Stephenson has
been a somewhat quiet player at that end.
It makes the contributions he does make in other areas less obvious and
more important. For example, over the
past three seasons he is fifth among active Capital forwards in shorthanded ice
time per game (1:30). He is fifth in that
group in blocked shots (69), first in faceoff winning percentage (52.0 percent;
minimum: 50 draws taken), and perhaps not surprisingly since he picks his
spots, third in shooting percentage (15.7).
One number that does jump out and glow red like an irritated bunion is
his on-ice shot attempts differential at 5-on-5. Over the last three seasons that number is
minus-288, worst among active Caps forwards.
But back to the shots; Stephenson does have shots on goal in each of his
last four games. It might seem modest,
but it is his longest such streak since he put together a five-game shots
streak to close October and open November last season. Stephenson is 1-0-1, even, in six career
games against Calgary, his goal coming in the 5-3 win in Calgary on October 22nd.
In the end…
Calgary is in something of a funk at the moment. Going into their game against Columbus on Saturday
night they have not won consecutive games since October 15/17 against
Philadelphia and Detroit at home. They
are 3-3-1 since then and have been held to two or fewer goals four times in
that span. And, they just have not been
a very good team on the road, going 3-5-1 overall with just that one win in
regulation. Adding to the burden, their
game against the Caps is the last of a five-game road trip for the Flames, the
first three of which were hard-fought one goal decisions (1-1-1).
Meanwhile, the Caps are running roughshod over opposing
defenses and goaltenders, scoring five or more goals in five of their last
seven games and averaging 4.71 goals per game (best in the league) while going
6-0-1 (best in the league). There is
little to think the Caps cannot keep the train moving smartly down the track in
this one.
Capitals 5 – Flames 2
