The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals, hot off a 5-3 win over the
Philadelphia Flyers, owners of a five-game winning streak, and locked in a
dogfight with the New York Islanders for the top spot in the Metropolitan
Division standings, return home on Friday night after a three-game road trip to
host the New Jersey Devils at Capital One Arena.
Since losing in a listless effort in Anaheim to the Ducks,
5-2, on February 17th, the Caps have won seven of eight games to
take over the top spot in the Metro (pending the Islanders’ Thursday night
contest against the Ottawa Senators), outscoring opponents by a 31-22 margin. It is the best run of good fortune for the
Caps since they went 16-3-0 from November 16th through December 29th.
Meanwhile, the Devils have been slowly and steadily sinking
in the standings. Since the last time
they won consecutive games, on January 12th and 14th
against Philadelphia and Chicago, they are 7-13-2 and have been outscored by a 70-53
margin.
It probably says something of the Devils’ season that over
their 22-game slump, their leading goal scorer is gone. Marcus Johansson (six goals in that span) was traded to
the Boston Bruins at the trading deadline.
Next in line is Jesper Bratt, who has five goals in 20 games. Bratt, in his second NHL season, had a fine
rookie year, finishing tied for 17th among rookies last season in
goals (13), tied for 15th in assists (22), and 16th in
points (35). With eight goals in 51
games to date, Bratt appears unlikely to match last season’s goal total, but he
has already posted 25 assists to eclipse last season’s total and he needs only
two points (he has 33) to match last season’s total. He was a victim of inconsistency over
stretches this season. For example,
while he got off to a quick 2-11-13 start in his first 17 games, he followed
that with a 1-2-3 scoring line over his next 13 games. In his last 21 games he is 5-12-17, although
he is listed as day-to-day after sustaining an injury against Columbus on
Tuesday. He is 0-0-0, minus-1, in five
career games against Washington.
Damon Severson leads the defense in scoring over the Devils’
last 22 games, both in goals (three) and points (11). Severson, who is in only his fifth season
with the Devils, is already 12th on the all-time franchise list of
games played by a defenseman (346), tied for 11th in goals scored
(27, with Tommy Albelin). His next
assist will be the 100th of his career, becoming the 12th
defenseman in team history to reach 100 helpers, and his 126 career points
ranks 12th among defensemen in Devils’ history. Unfortunately, Severson has played for some
of the lesser squads in Devils’ history, a fact reflected by his minus-78 over
his five seasons, the third-worst rating among NHL defensemen in that span.
This year, his scoring is just a matter of team success when delivering supplemental
support. New Jersey is 16-9-4 in games
win which Severson has a point, 9-24-5 in the games he does not. Severson is 2-3-5, minus-12, in 15 career
games against the Caps.
New Jersey is not an awful scoring team; they rank 22nd
in scoring offense at 2.81 goals per game.
But neither are they especially formidable, and that is in no small part
a product of not having a go-to goal scorer since Taylor Hall went out of the lineup
in late December with a knee injury. In
the meantime, Kyle Palmieri is the Devils one and only 20-goal scorer
(26). But he is “week-to-week” with a
lower body injury that leaves him doubtful for this game. That leaves Blake Coleman as the leading goal
scorer for the Devils likely to take the ice for this game.
But here is the thing. Coleman, who has 18 goals in 63 games this season, is without a goal in his last 14 games, and he has only one assist while averaging almost 19 minutes a game. Nevertheless, Coleman has set a personal high in goals (18), has tied his personal best in assists (12), and reached the 30-point mark for the first time in his three seasons in the NHL. The absences of others and the general malaise that has settled on this team has made it of limited consequence that he scores goals. New Jersey is 9-5-2 in the games in which he recorded a goal this season, but his scoring on the road gives the Devils a fighting chance, where they are 5-4-1 in the ten road games in which he turned on the red light. Coleman is 1-1-2, plus-2, in six career games against the Capitals.
But here is the thing. Coleman, who has 18 goals in 63 games this season, is without a goal in his last 14 games, and he has only one assist while averaging almost 19 minutes a game. Nevertheless, Coleman has set a personal high in goals (18), has tied his personal best in assists (12), and reached the 30-point mark for the first time in his three seasons in the NHL. The absences of others and the general malaise that has settled on this team has made it of limited consequence that he scores goals. New Jersey is 9-5-2 in the games in which he recorded a goal this season, but his scoring on the road gives the Devils a fighting chance, where they are 5-4-1 in the ten road games in which he turned on the red light. Coleman is 1-1-2, plus-2, in six career games against the Capitals.
1. The Devils have
been taking a long hard look at the roster over this 22 game slide. A total of 32 skaters have dressed for the
Devils in that span. Only eight skaters
have dressed for as many as 20 games, and only three – Kevin Rooney, Andy
Greene, and Damon Severson – have dressed for all of them.
2. New Jersey
struggles to mount much offense on the road.
Only Boston has scored fewer goals on the road among Eastern Conference
teams this season (75 in 31 road games) than the Devils (83 in 32 road games).
3. Defense on the
road has also been an issue. The 125
goals allowed by New Jersey on the road is a total topped only by the Ottawa
Senators (149 in 34 road games) and the Chicago Blackhawks (131 in 33 road
games) among the league’s teams.
4. No team in the
league has allowed more shorthanded goals on the road than New Jersey (eight).
5. Shot attempts have
been an issue for New Jersey on the road.
Their shot attempt differential at 5-on-5 (minus-233) is fifth-worst in
the league, and their SAT percentage at fives (46.08) also is fifth-worst. They are especially poor when trailing in
games, where their 46.93 percent mark is last in the league.
1. If the Caps score
two goals against the Devils, that will make 700 goals scored in the all-time
series between the teams. Mike Gartner
is the all-time leader in goal scoring against the Devils (31 in 45 games),
while Alex Ovechkin is the leader among active Capitals (25 in 51 games). Ovechkin is the active and all-time leader in
points against New Jersey (57).
2. In the Caps’ 7-1-0
run of late, Alex Ovechkin leads the team in goals (six) and points (ten).
3. Only the Colorado
Avalanche have allowed more power play goals to opponents on home ice (29) than
the Caps (25, tied with Detroit).
4. The Caps can be a
handful at home against opponents. They
have scored four or more goals at Capital One Arena 18 times this season. Only Winnipeg (20) and Tampa Bay (23) have
done so more often on home ice.
5. Washington is
seeking their fourth straight win on home ice.
If they earn the win, it will be their longest home winning streak this
season. They had a three-game home
winning streak to close November. Also, the Caps are looking to extend their
points streak on home ice to seven games (they are 5-0-1 in their last six,
already their longest points streak on home ice this season).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New Jersey: Cory Schneider
It has been a long and difficult road for goaltender Cory
Schneider. On February 15th,
he stopped all 15 shots he faced in a 36-minute effort in relief of Keith
Kinkaid in a 5-4 win over the Minnesota Wild.
He earned the win in that game, the first win he had in almost 14
months, since a 31-save gem in a 3-1 win over the Detroit Red Wings on December
27, 2017. That winless drought extended
to 24 games across two seasons over which he was 0-17-4 (three no-decisions),
4.12, .865. However, while that long
winless streak is over, there remains his performance on the road. That win over the Wild is Schneider’s only
road win in his last 18 road games, extending back to mid-December 2017. In that span, he is 1-13-3 (one no-decision),
4.07, .873 on the road. Kinkaid is
gone, traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets, and MacKenzie Blackwood, while
having posted promising numbers so far (6-6-0, 2.25, .931, with two shutouts in
15 games), might not be ready for a full workload. Schneider, who with 291 games played in New
Jersey is closing in on becoming just the third goalie in Devil history to
appear in 300 games, joining Martin Brodeur (1,259) and Chris Terreri (302),
could be in a position to resuscitate his career. Schneider is 3-9-2, 2.68, .905, with one
shutout in 15 career games against the Caps.
Washington: Jakub Vrana
Oh, to be young, to be able to skate like the wind, and
having hands slick enough to stickhandle through crowds and snipe shots into
the top corner as if you were shooting a Red Ryder BB gun with a compass in the
stock, and that thing which tells time.
That has been what Jakub Vrana has enjoyed this season. One might say that this season dates back to
Game 5 of last season’s Stanley Cup final, when he scored the first goal in
what would be the Caps’ Cup-clinching win over the Vegas Golden Knights, but
what he has done this season is post a career high in goals (19), assists (22),
points (41), plus-minus (plus-18), and shooting percentage (14.5). If there is an odd part of his numbers this
season, it is that he has not been quite as good at home as on the road. Away from DC, he is 11-11-22, plus-11, in 34
games, while at Capital One Arena, he is 8-11-19, plus-7, in 33 games. He is ramping things up on home ice,
though. Going into this game, Vrana is 5-8-13,
plus-6, in his last 14 home games. He is
2-0-2, minus-2, in seven career games against the Devils.
In the end…
As the Caps head into their last 15 games of the regular
season, ten games left on the schedule will be against teams currently
playoff-eligible, three of those against the league-leading Tampa Bay
Lightning. It puts a premium on scooping
up the available points from the also-rans left on the schedule. This is one of the latter types of
games. New Jersey is without their best
player (Taylor Hall), likely to be without their top goal scorer (Kyle
Palmieri) and a player with recent goal input (Jesper Bratt), is thinned out at
other positions by injuries, and have long been out of playoff contention. They have allowed 23 goals in their last five
road games while scoring only 12 of their own.
It just is not a game the Caps should lose. So therefore, they will make it interesting.
Capitals 5 – Devils 3
