The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals have had three days without hockey,
but on Thursday night it is time to get back to business as the Vancouver
Canucks come to town. The Caps will be
looking to extend their current winning streak to five games and make it their
fourth winning streak this season of five or more games.
The Canucks, on the other hand, will be looking to win
consecutive games for the first time in almost three weeks and only the second
time in more than a month. Vancouver has
been alternating wins and losses of late, going 4-2-1 in their last seven games
that coincided with their longest home stand of the season. This contest will open a six-game road trip
that will take the Canucks almost to the all-star break.
The odd – and perhaps ominous – part of the Canucks’ 4-2-1
record over their last seven games is that three of the wins came in extra time
(twice in overtime, once in the Gimmick).
Their offense has been almost non-existent over that span of games,
registering a total of just 13 goals, only 11 in 21 regulation periods of
hockey. It makes the 17 goals they
allowed over those seven games – a very respectable number – look worse than
they are.
Special teams are a mixed bag. The power play is 4-for-22 in their 4-2-1 run
(18.2 percent), while the penalty kill is 14-for-17 (82.4 percent). It makes for a decent special teams index
(100.6), but the Canucks can point to neither as something carrying the team
forward.
Of the 13 goals scored over their last seven games, four of
them were recorded by Bo Horvat. The
sudden jolt in his goal totals came in the midst of what has been a
disappointing sophomore season for him in that statistic. Horvat finished tied for seventh among
rookies in goals scored last season (13), but he had just two in his first 39
contests this season until his recent production. What he cannot hide, though, is that among
785 skaters to have dressed so far this season, he is ranked tied for dead last
in plus-minus (minus-20). Horvat has one
assist in two career games against the Capitals.
Henrik Sedin leads the team over this stretch in assists
with four, but he has not turned on the red light himself. It is part of a first half that has him on a
somewhat spooky pace of 18-54-72, almost precisely what he finished with in 82
games last season (18-55-73). The goal
scoring might be something of a concern, however, given the team’s recent
drought. Henrik does not have a goal in
his last 12 games and only one in his last 17 contests. He is primarily a set-up man, and he does
have 12 assists over those same last 17 games.
But with the club averaging less than two goals per game over their last
seven games, and the team generally underperforming on offense (ranked 15th),
more would be helpful from Henrik. He is
3-10-13, plus-3, in 16 career games against Washington.
Ben Hutton is the only defenseman in the Western Conference
who has ten or more assists and no goals (0-10-10). The 22-year old rookie out of Brockville,
Ontario, was a fifth-round pick of the Canucks in the 2012 draft, after which
he spent three years in the University of Maine program in the NCAA. Four games in the AHL later, at the end of
last season, and he is a Canuck, one of three Vancouver defensemen to have
recorded ten or more points this season.
What he is not at the moment is hot.
After posting nine points (all assists) in his first 22 games, he has
one point (an assist) in his last 14 contests.
He has one career appearance against the Caps, that in Washington’s 3-2
win in Vancouver on October 22nd, without a point and registering a minus-1.
Here is how the teams compare to one another overall:
1. Vancouver’s recent
road record is nothing to get excited about, if you are a Canuck fan. They are 2-4-3 in their last nine road
contests, and one of the two wins came in the freestyle competition. They were shut out in three of the four
regulation losses.
2. Ryan Miller has
missed the Canucks’ last eight games in goal with a groin injury suffered on
December 20th in the shootout phase of Vancouver’s 5-4 loss to Florida. In his place, Jacob Markstrom went 5-2-2 (he
took the shootout loss when Miller departed against Florida), 2.18, .927. Miller is expected to return to action
against the Caps.
3. For what it’s
worth, Vancouver is the worst team in the league taking faceoffs (45.2
percent). What could spell doom for the
Canucks is that they are last in faceoffs when shorthanded, winning an anemic
39.7 percent of their draws.
4. Speak of penalty
killing, Vancouver has faced the third highest number of shorthanded situations
on the road this season (83), behind only Winnipeg (92) and Columbus
(103). Only the Blue Jackets have
allowed more power play goals on the road (23) than the Canucks (20).
5. Vancouver is a
middle of the road team on the road in possession numbers. They rank 15th overall in
Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in away games (48.8 percent). Looping back to those last nine road games
in which they are 2-4-3, the Canucks are slightly below their season numbers
(47.8 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. Did you know that
“defense-first” head coach Barry Trotz has been behind the bench for four games
in which the Caps scored seven goals over the past two years (all this
season). No team over the last two
seasons has more seven-or-more goal games (Nashville and Ottawa each have
four).
2. Of those four
seven-goal games, the Caps had two of them at home (against Ottawa and
Colorado) and two on the road (at Edmonton and at the New York Rangers).
3. Washington is
6-for-12 on the power play on home ice over their last four home games (50.0
percent), 11-for-25 over their last eight home games. That has lifted them to over 30 percent for
the season on home ice (30.6 percent), second best in the league to Boston
(32.8 percent).
4. Only three teams
in the East have missed a greater percentage of their shot attempts than the
Caps (21.8 percent): Tampa Bay (23.9 percent), Toronto (24.7 percent), and
Carolina (24.8 percent).
5. Washington is 15th
in the league in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 on home ice (51.8). Despite the fact that the Caps bring a
ten-game winning streak on home ice into this game, their Corsi numbers have
been a bit lower than their season numbers at Verizon Center (49.8 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless Players to Ponder
Vancouver: Daniel Sedin
When a hockey hall of famer refers to you on-air as a “lowlife,” people will take notice. That is
how Daniel Sedin was described by Florida Panthers TV analyst and hall of famer
Denis Potvin after Sedin scored the game winning goal in overtime to end the
Panthers’ 12-game winning streak. There
were also references to dining habits. For
Sedin it was just another night at the office (two goals) in a season that has
him averaging almost a point a game (40 in 43 games) and that has him within a
goal (19) of the total he had last year in 82 games (20).
His next goal will give him the franchise record that he currently shares with Markus Naslong (346), and he trails only brother Henrik in career assists for the franchise (575 to 731) and career points as a Canuck (921 to 951). He has slowed down somewhat lately, though. After a 24-game run in which he went 12-17-29, he is 5-1-6 in his last dozen games. Daniel Sedin is 7-6-13, plus-3, in 15 career games against the Caps.
His next goal will give him the franchise record that he currently shares with Markus Naslong (346), and he trails only brother Henrik in career assists for the franchise (575 to 731) and career points as a Canuck (921 to 951). He has slowed down somewhat lately, though. After a 24-game run in which he went 12-17-29, he is 5-1-6 in his last dozen games. Daniel Sedin is 7-6-13, plus-3, in 15 career games against the Caps.
Washington: Jason Chimera
Nicklas Backstrom has four three-or-more point games this
season. Not a surprise. So does Evgeny Kuznetsov. We can see that. Next in line, with three three-or-more point
games is Jason Chimera, who has three (at home against Colorado and Ottawa, and
on the road against Philadelphia). He did not have one all of last season. Shoot, even Curis Glencross had one, and he
was here and gone in the blink of an eye.
Jay Beagle had one, for heaven’s sake.
Chimera is on a bit of a run lately. After suffering a five-game streak without a point in December, he is 5-6-11, plus-9, over his last 14 games. His next power play point will make him the sixth Capital to reach ten power play points this season. They had nine players reach that mark last year, and Chimera was not one of them. He had none in 77 games, in fact. He is 9-5-14, minus-3, in 31 career games against Vancouver.
Chimera is on a bit of a run lately. After suffering a five-game streak without a point in December, he is 5-6-11, plus-9, over his last 14 games. His next power play point will make him the sixth Capital to reach ten power play points this season. They had nine players reach that mark last year, and Chimera was not one of them. He had none in 77 games, in fact. He is 9-5-14, minus-3, in 31 career games against Vancouver.
In the end…
Although the Pacific Division is not having its strongest
season, they have been successful against the Metropolitan Division. Excluding Vancouver, the division is 31-24-3
against the Metro. Then there are the
Canucks. Their 4-4-1 record against the
Metropolitan Division is the second worst among seven Pacific Division teams
(Arizona is 2-6-2). Their only road win
against the Metro in three games was against the Columbus Blue
Jackets.
On the other hand, the Caps have done well against the
Pacific Division. However, while they
are 4-1-1 overall against the Pacific, they are just 1-1-1 on home ice. This is a game that can turn on special
teams. Vancouver is a respectable plus-5
in 5-on-5 goal differential in away games (ninth in the league), while the Caps
are sixth in home goal differential at 5-on-5 (plus-11). The Caps’ power play (ranked second in the
league at home) against the Canucks’ penalty killers (ranked 23rd on
the road) heavily favors Washington.
That is where the Caps will win.
Capitals 4 – Canucks 2
