Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Forwards: Conor Sheary

Conor Sheary

“The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes.”
-- Marcel Proust

The one hand, Conor Sheary is something of an overachiever.  Undrafted, signed to a minor-league amateur tryout with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in 2014, signed as a free agent by the Baby Pens, signed as a free agent by the NHL parent Pittsburgh Penguins, he got a taste of the NHL with 44 games in 2015-2016 before he posted 23 goals (tied for third on the team) and 53 points (fourth) in his first full NHL season in 2016-2017 along with a plus-24 rating (third) for the Stanley Cup champion Penguins.

On the other hand, his production has been something of a slow leak since.  In the subsequent three seasons, his goal scoring dropped to 18 goals, then 14 (after he was traded to the Buffalo Sabres), and finally ten last season (split between the Sabres and a second tour with the Penguins).  His points did not drop as consistently, but drop they did, from 53 in that first full season to 30 the following season, 34 in his first season in Buffalo, and down to 23 last year.

It is not hard to see why Sheary’s goal scoring dropped over time.  In that first full season in the NHL, he recorded 154 shots on goal in 61 games, an average of 2.52 per game.  By last season, that shot total was down to 102 shots in 63 games, a 1.62 shots per game average and a 36 percent drop over a span of four seasons.  Not only was the shot frequency down, so was Sheary’s efficiency.  From a 14.9 shooting percentage on 154 shots in 2016-2017, he was down to 9.8 percent on 102 shots in 2019-2020.  Worse, his production fell off at the end of last season.  In his last 27 games (19 with Buffalo, eight with Pittsburgh), he posted only three goals on 40 shots (7.5 percent).

Odd Sheary Fact… There are players who are better with home-cooking than they are eating room service on the road, and Conor Sheary is a clear example of the species.  In 163 career home games, he is 39-50-89, plus-19, with 327 shots on goal (2.01 per game).  On the road, though, he is 33-28-61, minus-17, with 269 shots on goal (1.66 shots per game) in 162 games.

Odd Sheary Fact II… Of the 31 teams against which he has played in the NHL, Sheary averages more than a point per game against one opponent – the Pittsburgh Penguins (4-2-6, plus-5, in five career games).

Fearless’ Take…

Even with Sheary’s diminishing production since his first full year in Pittsburgh, he has four straight double-digit goal scoring seasons while averaging just 14 minutes a game over that span.  It might be a case of finding and settling into a role compatible with managed minutes and lower expectations.  It would appear he will get a look at wing on the Caps’ third line, and he might benefit from playing off Lars Eller’s versatility at center. 

Cheerless’ Take…

Last year, Sheary skated more than 15 minutes 12 times and recorded one point (an assist).  Then again, he was not all that hot at the other end, either – 2-1-3 in seven games in which he skated under ten minutes (both goals against the Penguins – file that one away).  And yet, eight of those nine games with more than 15 minutes were with the Sabres, a struggling team, and all seven games he skated under ten minutes were with Buffalo.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 5,000 career minutes played (he currently has 4,469)
• 100 career assists (he currently has 78)

The Big Question… Is Conor Sheary sturdy enough for the regular season grind?

Conor Sheary is something of a conundrum, illustrated by his scouting report at TSN.ca: 

• Assets: Is a natural point producer at all lower levels. Shoots the puck often. Plays with an abundance of energy every shift and is tenacious on the forecheck. Can play on either side of center.
• Flaws: Can he survive the National Hockey League game at his diminutive size (5-8, 175 pounds) and with his lack of strength? He does have a tendency of getting knocked off the puck.

When the folks at TSN.ca conclude that his potential is “diminutive depth scoring winger with a little upside,” it is the printed form of scratching one’s head.  He has skill, but can he be pushed around?  He has had a variety of injuries (eye, concussion, lower-body, upper-body) that have chipped away at his durability.  Is that the bottom line he is fighting against here? 

It is hard to know just what the Caps have in Sheary.  He showed early career potential as a supplemental scorer, standing out with his production in his first full season on a club loaded with skill at forward.  Can the Caps take advantage of his skill set while still providing some protection, either in minutes or in system approaches, from being dominated physically?

In the end…

Conor Sheary came back to earth in three seasons since having a breakthrough season with the Penguins in 2016-2017, but he is still only 27 years old.  He skated for a struggling Buffalo Sabres team last year, which makes it a bit difficult to assess his potential as he heads into his middle career years. But in Washington – a new city, a new coach, new teammates – Sheary has an opportunity to discover a fresh spark for his career. 

Projection: 36 games, 7-7-14, minus-1

Photo: Harry How/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Forwards: Richard Panik

Richard Panik

“New beginnings are often disguised as painful endings.”
– Lao Tzu

When Richard Panik was signed by the Washington Capitals to a four-year, $11 million contract in July 2019, he was going to fill in as best he could a hole among the bottom six forwards when Andre Burakovsky (traded to Colorado) and Brett Connolly (signed by Florida) left.  Burakovsky was an underperforming youngster, while Connolly was a somewhat one-dimensional goal scoring winger.  Panik was thought of as more of a two-way, perhaps more “responsible” sort of forward with some offensive upside who would add discipline and consistency to what was a somewhat disappointing bottom six in 2018-2019.

It did not work out that way, at least not at the start of the 2019-2020 season.  Panik’s offense to start the season was non-existent.  In his first nine games he registered only seven shots on goal, three times failing to record one.  He did not have a point in his first dozen games, had only four points in his first 28 games (3-1-4).  He was a plu-s6 over those 28 games, though, so it was not an entirely lost cause at that point.

Persistence, patience, or simply better hockey luck paid off for Panik after those difficult first 28 games. He was a quite effective player over his last 31 games, going 6-12-18, plus-10, and shooting 18.8 percent in 11 minutes and change in ice time per night (having 32 shots in 31 games might have merited improvement, but still).  It did not move the needle much in terms of wins and losses, though.  Over those last 31 games, the Caps were 8-5-2 in 15 games in which Panik recorded at least one point, 7-8-1 in 16 games in which he did not.

Odd Panik Fact… Richard Panik spread his scoring around last season.  His 22 points were recorded against 16 different teams.  The only team against which he scored as many as three points was Pittsburgh (a goal and two assists).

Odd Panik Fact II… Last season was the first in which Panik dressed for more than 30 games and had more giveaways (29) than takeaways (21) since the 2013-2014 season, when he had 16 takeaways and 23 giveaways in 50 games for Tampa Bay.

Fearless’ Take…

When Richard Panik closed his first season with the Caps with a rush on the offensive side of the puck, he salvaged a season that looked disastrous early, one that ultimately looked a little better than his career per-82-game numbers.  As it was, he finished eighth in goals among forwards, ninth in both assists and points.  Third line numbers.  His plus-10 rating was second-best on the team over his last 31 games (Michal Kempny: plus-11).  Over that same span, his 18.8 shooting percentage was topped only by Alex Ovechkin (19.4) and T.J. Oshie (20.3).  His six even strength goals over those 31 games were sixth on the team, while his 18 even strength points were second only to Ovechkin (23).  Only Ovechkin had more first goals (five) than Panik (two). 

Cheerless’ Take…

Those last 31 games are nice, cuz, but the season was 69 games long.  And Panik’s postseason was hardly unicorns and accordions.  He had one goal and one point in eight games with a minus-2 rating.  Then again, that one goal was one more than fellow bottom-six forwards Ilya Kovalchuk, Carl Hagelin, Garnet Hathaway, Nic Dowd, and Lars Eller.  Still, Panik had a good “part of a season,” and that was not really good enough for the Caps last season.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 500 career NHL games (he currently has 469)
• 100 career goals (84)
• 200 career points (181)
• 100 games as a Capital (59)

The Big Question… Which Richard Panik will step up (or step back) this season?

Richard Panik’s 2019-2020 season was one in three distinct parts, a soggy start and playoff finish with a meaty middle.  Sounds like a sandwich you really don’t want to eat.  But it begs the question of which Panik was the most representative of his value to the club and whether he can sustain a level of performance sufficient to make the Caps’ season successful.  The second half of his regular season could be either a recovery from a poor “get acquainted” period with his new team, or it could be an outlier.  It did allow him to post a regular season in goals-assists-points per game (0.15-0.22-0.37) that was only slightly off his career goals-assists-points per game going into the season (0.18-0.20-0.38).  What complicates the issue going forward is Panik’s $2.75 million cap hit through the 2022-2023 season.  That number is almost twice that of combined cap hits this season of two forwards the Caps added over the last year, Daniel Sprong ($725,000) and Conor Sheary ($735,000).  With the Caps sitting at a projected cap hit of $85.1 million, even the long term injury reserve cushion they have for Michal Kempny and Henrik Lundqvist (combined $4.0 million this season) leaves Panik in a bit of a precarious situation.

In the end…

High end talent on an NHL roster is a necessary element to success.  However, there is considerable talent among the teams with serious Stanley Cup ambitions, which means that those skilled players are not necessarily a sufficient element of success.  Bottom-six/third pair defense that undergird that skill is often the added element that teams need for that final push.  The Caps had it in 2017-2018, when they won the Stanley Cup.  They did not have it the past two seasons when they finished in disappointing fashion with first-round playoff exits.  The Caps can make the playoffs without significant contributions from the bottom-six forwards (but this is by no means certain).  They almost certainly cannot go deep in the postseason without their contributions, and Richard Panik needs to be part of that contribution.

Projection: 52 games, 7-11-18, plus-9

Photo: Harry How/Getty Images