“It is not the mountain we conquer but ourselves.”
-- Edmund Hillary
Braden Holtby’s ascent to the top of his profession was
steady and relentless. A fourth-round
draft pick in the 2008 entry draft, he spent another 68 regular season and
playoff games in Canadian junior (Saskatoon Blades), 12 games in the ECHL
(South Carolina Stingrays), 141 games in the AHL (Hershey Bears), and 126
regular season and playoff games with the Caps before taking the reins as the
team’s number one goaltender for good in the 2014-2015 season when he appeared
in a league leading 73 regular season games and all 13 games the Caps played in
the 2015 postseason.
Starting with that 2014-2015 season he finished in the
top-four in Vezina Trophy voting in three consecutive seasons, was a finalist
twice, and won the trophy in 2015-2016 when he tied a league record for wins by
a goaltender in a single season (48, with Martin Brodeur, who did it for the
New Jersey Devils in 2006-2007).
But while the ascent was impressive, the summit – a deep run
in the postseason leading to a Stanley Cup – remained out of reach. Holtby was one of those Capitals who either
disappointed in the postseason or was disappointed by his teammates in five
trips to the playoffs, four of which ended in the second round. It was especially hard on player and team,
given that through last season Holtby had the best goals against average in the
expansion era beginning after the 1966-1967 season (2.00) and the second-best save
percentage (.932, behind Tim Thomas’ .933; minimum: 50 playoff appearances).
There was a hiccup in Holtby’s 2017-2018 season that
interrupted his long string of regular season success. In his last 22 appearances of the season he
went 10-8-4, 3.47, .893; quite a drop-off from his 24-8-0, 2.68, .917
performance over his first 32 appearances.
It led head coach Barry Trotz to choose Philipp Grubauer to start the
postseason for the Caps, but after Grubauer struggled in the Capitals overtime
losses to the Columbus Blue Jackets in Games 1 and 2 of the first round, Holtby
returned to the net. After taking the
Game 2 overtime loss, he then went 16-6, 2.17, .922 with two shutouts to finally
win the big prize that eluded him and his teammates. And, of course, there was what is perhaps the biggest save in team history...
Odd Holtby Fact…
Braden Holtby was the tenth goaltender selected in the 2008
entry draft. Five of the nine taken
ahead of him have yet to appear in an NHL game.
None of the 23 goaltenders taken in that draft are within 100 games
played of Holtby (361). Jake Allen is
second with 219 (taken 34th overall, the fourth goalie taken in that
draft).
Fearless’ Take…
No active goaltender has more 40-win seasons than Braden
Holtby. He and Nashville’s Pekka Rinne
each have three such seasons. And only
Marc-Andre Fleury, Roberto Luongo, and Ryan Miller – three of the longest-tenured
goalies in the league – are the others with more than one. As it is, Holtby has 225 wins since coming
into the league in 2010-2011, seventh among all goalies in that span, despite
appearing in 40 fewer games (361) than the goalie with the second-fewest
appearances on that list (Chicago’s Corey Crawford with 401 appearances and 229
wins). He continued to thrive on a heavy
workload in 2017-2018. In 16 games in
which he faced 35 or more shots, he was 13-2-1, 2.68, .929. In the 31 complete games he played (not
pulled early) in which he faced fewer than 35 shots, he was 21-7-3, 2.46, but
with a save percentage of only .914.
Cheerless’ Take…
Over those last 22 appearances of the regular season in
2017-2018, Braden Holtby was 54th of 57 goals appearing in at least
ten games in goals-against average (3.47), 55th in save percentage
(.893), and was tied for 24th in wins (ten). He was pulled four times over an 11-game span
in which he went 3-6-2, 4.45, .872.
Potential Milestones…
- 400 career appearances (he needs 39)
- 250 wins (he needs 25)
- 10,000 saves (he needs 525)
The Big Question… Was
last year’s late-season swoon a hiccup or evidence that the league has a better
book on Holtby?
Last season was really the first time in his career that
Braden Holtby suffered any sustained performance issues. But on top of the late-season slump he
suffered, he also had quite a home-road difference in results. In 31 home appearances he was 22-7-2, 2.41,
.921; but in 23 road appearances he was 12-9-2, 3.90, .889. In all seven instances in which he was pulled
early in contests, it occurred on the road.
But what made the season for Holtby just a little bit more
bizarre was an odd regular/postseason difference. In nine regular season games against the four
teams Holtby faced in the postseason, he was 4-5-0, 3.48, .897, with no
shutouts. Then, he went 16-7, 2.16,
.922, and he recorded his two shutouts in Games 6 and 7 against the Tampa Bay
Lightning in the Eastern Conference final.
If those four teams had a “book” on Holtby based on their regular season
results against him, they forgot whatever lessons they taught. Or, those problems that Holtby endured in the
regular season were merely all of a slump that all players suffer at some
point, if they play long enough.
In the end…
Nothing is every easy at the highest levels of competition,
but one gets the feeling after last season that Braden Holtby had to experience
that lengthy season-end slump and even lose his unchallenged status as the team’s
number one goaltender as the last element of the education of a champion. Having never experienced that kind of
sustained difficulty in the regular season might have kept him from developing
that hard shell that players need in the postseason to shrug off the occasional
misfortune and plow through it in a way he was not able to do in his previous
five trips to the postseason.
The pressure on him to avoid that kind of a slump will be
greater this season as the club no longer has Philipp Grubauer to provide
consistently effective support in a backup role. There will be the temptation for the Caps,
likely to start the season with Pheonix Copley as the number two netminder, to
give Holtby a bigger workload this year than he had last season, especially
early. Consider that last season Holtby appeared in only 20 of the Caps’ first
28 games. On top of that, there was a
distinct rhythm to those early appearances.
He was “two-on/one-off over Washington’s first dozen games before going
to a “three-on/one-off” over the next 16 games.
The Caps might not be able to afford that kind of pacing for Holtby early in the season as the club sorts out its backup goalie situation and eases Copley into that role. How the goaltending situation unfold early could go a long way toward determining if the Caps will be in the playoff hunt later, and it makes watching Holtby’s workload something to which attention should be paid. Having conquered his own misfortune to get to the top of the mountain, he will have to continue that effort to stay there.
The Caps might not be able to afford that kind of pacing for Holtby early in the season as the club sorts out its backup goalie situation and eases Copley into that role. How the goaltending situation unfold early could go a long way toward determining if the Caps will be in the playoff hunt later, and it makes watching Holtby’s workload something to which attention should be paid. Having conquered his own misfortune to get to the top of the mountain, he will have to continue that effort to stay there.
Projection: 62 games, 38-18-4,
2.48, .918, 2 shutouts
Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images
North America
