Marcus Johansson
“What I appreciate is acknowledging to the audience that I
think they have brains.”
-- Lily Tomlin
The Washington Capitals’ Marcus Johansson is fifth among
active Capitals in games played (419) since the 2004-2005 lockout. Only Alex Ovechkin (839), Nicklas Backstrom
(652), Karl Alzner (509), and John Carlson (454) are higher on that list. If he appears in 81 games this season he will
become the 27th player in the history of the franchise to appear in
at least 500 games (assuming Carlson gets there first). He will have appeared in more games for the
Caps than Bob Carpenter (490) and Craig Laughlin (428), more than Jason Chimera
(490) and Alexander Semin (469). With
three seasons of at least 80 games played by age 25, only Mike Gartner (4),
John Carlson (4), and Bob Carpenter (5) had more in Caps history.
No one has done it in a quieter way than Johansson, who for
the last five seasons has average more than half a point per game, who has more
power play goals scored (19) than any other Capital except Ovechkin (97) and
Troy Brouwer (30), who has more game-winning goals (13, tied with Nicklas
Backstrom) than any other Capital except for Ovechkin (36) and Brouwer (16). About those game-winning goals, the seven he
posted last year almost doubled his career total (to 15, including the two he
had as a rookie) and was second on the team to Alex Ovechkin (8). Only ten players in the league had more than
Johansson.
Johansson’s consistency persisted at an even more granular
level. Last season, Johansson went as
many as four games without a point only once.
He also fared well against good competition; he was 3-9-12, plus-1, in
17 games against Eastern Conference teams reaching the postseason. He recorded eight penalty minutes in 36 home
games and eight penalty minutes in 38 road games. He had 22 points at home, 24 on the road.
What is more, Johansson will just turn 26 the week before
the 2016-2017 regular season starts.
And, his $4.583 million cap hit is in an age and salary cap neighborhood
that includes Kyle Palmieri and Tyler Ennis (in fairness, it also includes Brad
Marchand and Max Pacioretty).
Fearless’ Take…
Since he came into the league in 2010-2011, Marcus Johansson
is one of two players to have appeared in at least 375 games and recorded fewer
than 55 penalty minutes (Ryan O’Reilly is the other). He is one of only ten players to do it in the
post-1967 expansion era. And, in one
respect he has taken advice to heart.
Johansson has been a reluctant shooter from time to time. That has changed over the last two
seasons. He will never be the Gatling
gun that is Alex Ovechkin, but his shots per game have increased in each of the
last four seasons, starting with a baseline of 1.13 shots per game in 2011-2012
and increasing to 1.78 shots per game – a career high – last season. He was sixth on the team in that statistic in
2015-2016.
Cheerless’ Take…
We could go way out into left field for a weird Johansson
shooting number. Six times last season
he scored on his only shot on goal in the game.
Four times that shot came in the third period, once into an empty net,
and a fifth was in the last minute of the second period of the game. In his six seasons in the league, no Capital
forward has more games without a shot on goal than Johansson (114). And, he has had issues with possession
numbers. The 2015-2016 season was his
fifth in six seasons in which he finished under 50 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5, both overall and in tied-score situations (numbers from Corsica.hockey). Then there is the matter of playoff
efficiency. Only once in six regular
seasons has Johansson posted a shooting percentage under 12.7 percent. On the other hand, only once in five
postseasons has he finished with a shooting percentage of higher than 8.0
percent. His career postseason shooting
percentage (7.6) is not much more than half that of his career regular season
percentage (12.8).
The Big Question… Is
last year’s “big question” still the big question?
Last year we asked, “What is Johansson’s upside, and have we seen it?”
And then Johansson proceeded to post a regular season that looked almost
exactly like his previous three full seasons (not including the abbreviated
2012-2013 season). In those three
previous full seasons he averaged 14 goals.
He had 17 in 2015-2016 (although in just 74 games, compared to an
average of 81 games the previous three full seasons). He finished with 46 points, compared to an
average of 46 points the previous three full seasons. Johansson did it playing most of his 5-on-5
minutes with Evgeny Kuznetsov and Justin Williams; the previous season he
played most of his 5-on-5 minutes with Kuznetsov and Troy Brouwer. It makes one wonder if this is the ceiling of
Johansson’s production.
In the end…
Johansson has shuttled between center and left wing, and
between the first and second lines for much of his career. It is a strange sort of regularity that
accompanies his offensive consistency.
Generic top-six forward, able to be plugged in wherever needed, he puts
up 45-50 points per 82 games. This
season could be something of a departure for Johansson in that with the
stability in the middle (centers Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Lars
Eller) and on the left side on the top two lines (Alex Ovechkin and Andre
Burakovsky), Johnasson would appear to be plugged in on the left side of the
third line on a more permanent basis (assuming Burakovsky does not slump).
What could be different for Johansson is that he could be the
offensive anchor on the Caps’ third line, a role he has not had to play in his
six seasons to date. In the past, he could be the
quietly effective (to a point) winger on lines with more dynamic personalities
and talents – Ovechkin and Backstrom on the top line, Kuznetsov on the
second. Now, he is likely to be matched
with Lars Eller, himself a player who has shuttled between center and wing in
his career but who is likely to center the Caps’ third line (but who has never
recorded more than 30 points in a season), and whoever the Caps decide should
man the right side. It that respect, it
is entirely possible that Johansson could post numbers very similar to those he
has had over his career and yet be a more effective player for the teammates he
plays with. He will not be the silent
partner of an Ovechkin or a Backstrom or a Kuznetsov. Those who have watched Johansson closely over
his career might see a better player, even if the numbers don’t immediately
suggest it.
Projection: 79 games, 17-28-45, plus-10
Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America
