The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
When the National Hockey League realigned and put its
schedule together for the 2013-2014 season, March 10th and 11th
might have been circled by hockey fans as a chance to see two bitter rivals
fighting for bragging rights and playoff seeding in front of loud crowds and
national television audiences.
Things have not quite worked out as planned. The circle on the calendar has faded, as has
the intensity of the rivalry between the Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh
Penguins. No longer are these teams the
signature rivalry in the Eastern Conference; no longer are Sidney Crosby and
Alex Ovechkin fighting it out to demonstrate who is the best hockey player on
the planet.
Caps fans might realize – grudgingly – that the Caps are not
now on the short list of what most would consider Stanley Cup contenders, and
none but his most rabid fans would consider Ovechkin the best hockey player on
the planet. But things are not all that
rosy in Pittsburgh, either, given the lofty expectations for a team led by
Crosby and a cast of stars. Since
winning the Stanley Cup in 2009, the Penguins have qualified for the playoffs
in each season, but they have managed to win only three playoff series, one
more than the Caps in that span. And
despite leading the Metropolitan Division by a comfortable margin this season, there are
questions about this Penguins team. Is
their goaltending – specifically, Marc-Andre Fleury – up to the challenge of a
playoff setting, one that he has not met over the past four years? Is their defense sturdy enough, or healthy
enough, to withstand the rigors of four playoff series over a two month
period? Is head coach Dan Bylsma nimble
enough to react on the fly and adjust in the faster paced setting of the
post-season?
Those questions might take on a bit more urgency, given the
Penguins’ performance of late. They are
hardly in danger of falling out of the Metropolitan Division lead (they have a
14-point lead on the second-place New York Rangers), but they come into this
home-and-home series against the Caps with a 2-2-2 record over their last six
games.
The usual suspects have been as productive as they need to
be for the Penguins. Evgeni Malkin is
2-5-7 over those six games, while Sidney Crosby is 1-6-7. James Neal has chipped in three goals and
three assists. What the Penguins have
also had, if not entirely expected, is significant contribution from rookie
defenseman Olli Maatta, who leads the Penguins with four goals over their last
six games and has a couple of assist for good measure. Maatta is second among all NHL rookie
defensemen in goals (9) and total points (27) to Boston’s Torey Krug (13 and
35), and his plus-10 trails only Tampa Bay’s Mark Barberio (plus-12) and
Anaheim’s Hampus Lindholm (plus-24) in plus-minus.
What the Penguins are not getting in this six-game lull is
secondary scoring. Of the 17 goals they
have in that span, Maatta (4), Neal (3), Malkin (2), and Crosby (1) have ten of
them. That leaves seven goals out of 14
other slots for skaters over those six games.
Chris Kunitz has two of those goals. He has already set a career high for goals in
a season (29) and now has four straight seasons of more than 20 goals, six for
his career. Kunitz has slowed down of
late, though. After recording
game-winning goals in consecutive games to end the month of January, he has only
two goals over his last nine games. It
is not for lack of shooting. Kunitz has
those two goals on 29 shots, although he was held without a shot in his last
game on Friday against Anaheim. It was
the first time he was held without a shot since December 3rd against
the New York Islanders. Consider it
regression of a sort. Before this dry
spell Kunitz had an 18.0 shooting percentage for the season. His 2-for-29 spell dropped him to 16.2
percent for the season, tied for 18th in the league. He is 6-7-13 in
18 career games against the Caps.
Another player is having a career year – defenseman Matt
Niskanen. When James Neal was obtained
from the Dallas Stars in 2011 for defenseman Alex Goligoski, Niskanen was “the
other guy” in the deal going to Pittsburgh.
In two-plus seasons after that trade Niskanen was 9-30-39, plus-11 in
133 games. Through 63 games this season
he is 9-28-37, plus-31, that last number leading all skaters in the NHL. If anything, he has grown hotter with the
passage of time. In 28 games since
December 18th, Niskanen is 8-16-24, plus-13. However, since the absence of Kris Letang
following the stroke he suffered that has kept him out of the lineup since
January 27th, Niskanen is 2-5-7, plus-2. He might be slowing down with the added
responsibility. Niskanen is 1-4-5,
plus-7, in 10 career games against Washington.
1. The Penguins’ power
play leads the league (25.5 percent), and it has not missed a beat despite the
sluggish 2-2-2 record over their last six games. Eight of the Penguins’ 17 goals over those
six games have been scored with the man advantage (8-for-27; 29.6
percent). Maatta has three of those
power play goals over that span to lead the club.
2. Pittsburgh is
known more for its offense, but in an important respect its defense should not
be overlooked. Only four teams have
allowed fewer first period goals this season than the 40 allowed by the
Penguins (Tampa Bay, New Jersey, San Jose, and Boston).
3. The ability to
keep the clamps on other teams early in games makes the Penguins
formidable. They are 29-3-1 when scoring
first (second best record in the league) and 20-2-1 when taking a lead into the
first intermission (fifth best record).
4. Pittsburgh is the
only team in the league to have received two match penalties this season, Deryk
Engelland on December 14th against Detroit and Robert Bortuzzo on
January 11th against Calgary.
They do trend to the lower end of the penalty scale, though. Their 230 minor penalties is tied for the 11th
lowest number in the league this season.
5. Despite their
lofty perch in the standings, the Penguins are not an especially dominant possession
team. In 5-on-5 close score situations
Pittsburgh ranks 16th in Corsi-for percentage (49.7) and 14th in
Fenwick-for percentage (50.8).
1. The Caps are 2-3-1
in their last six games against Pittsburgh at Verizon Center. Both wins were shutouts. Tomas Vokoun pitched a 30-save shutout in a
1-0 win on January 11, 2012; and Michal Neuvisth blanked the Penguins on 22
shots in a 3-0 win on February 6, 2011. Neither goaltender is still with the Caps.
2. This is the Caps’
third back-to-back set of games this month.
It will be their 14th set so far this season. In 10 of the 13 back-to-backs to date the
Caps either won both games (four times) or lost both, either in regulation or
in extra time (six times). They have an
11-8-7 record overall in back-to-back games.
3. The Caps power
play ranks second in the league this season, but it has struggled lately at
Verizon Center. Over their last five
games at Verizon Center the Caps power play is 1-for-22 (4.6 percent). It has been a different story on the
road. The Caps are 8-for-14 (57.1 percent)
on the man advantage over their last five road games.
4. The Caps have nine
players on the “plus” side of the plus-minus ledger this season. Five of them are in Hershey (Steve Oleksy,
Nate Schmidt, Patrick Wey, Julien Brouillette, and Casey Wellman), two are no
longer with the organization (Martin Erat and Alexander Urbom), and one
currently injured (Mikhail Grabovski).
The leader in plus-minus – only plus player, in fact – likely to take
the ice against Pittsburgh is Joel Ward (plus-2). Of 18 players having dressed for the Caps
this season who are a minus-1 or better, only Ward, Jason Chimera, Troy
Brouwer, and Tom Wilson are on the roster and have played in at least 40 games.
5. The Caps seem to
be allergic to the puck these days. In
10 of their last 12 games they have finished under 50 percent in Corsi-for
percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations and have a combined Corsi-for
percentage of 45.0 percent. Their
Fenwick-for percentage has been under 50 percent nine times in that span with an
overall 45.0 percentage as well.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Pittsburgh:
Marc-Andre Fleury
All eyes are going to be on Marc-Andre Fleury when the
post-season begins for the Penguins, given his playoff struggles over the last
four seasons. However, there appear to
be nicks and dents in his armor in the present.
Leading up to the Olympic break Fleury was 3-1-1, 1.52, .945, with one
shutout in his last five appearances. Coming
out of the break he has been less impenetrable, going 2-1-1, 3.12, .891 in four
appearances. So far this season, only
Mike Smith (54) and Kari Lehtonen (53) have made more appearances than Fleury
(51). That kind of workload has not been
unusual for Fleury, who had 62 or more appearances five times in a six year
period ending in 2011-2012 (he had 33 in 48 games last season). However, the Penguins are in a difficult
place. The expected backup goalie –
Tomas Vokoun – has not played this season due to a blood clotting condition
that had him on blood thinners and that kept from practicing, let alone
playing. Vokoun has been cleared to
practice, but it remains uncertain when (or if) he will see game action. The Penguins have a substantial division lead
and might want to give Fleury more rest to keep him fresh for the post-season. However, they want to keep him sharp,
too. Fleury is 15-7-2, 2.51, .913, with
two shutouts in 25 career appearances against Washington.
Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov
Finally. It took
1,354 days since Evgeny Kuznetsov was drafted 26th overall by the
Capitals in the first round of the 2010 NHL draft to get into the Caps' lineup, but Kuznetsov is expected to
make his NHL debut against Pittsburgh in this series. Fans might expect that he will slide
seamlessly into a top-six forward role, and in fact that is what he is expected
to fill…eventually. It appears likely he
will man the left side, a position from which the Caps have not had much punch
this season (23 goals, if you consider Brooks Laich’s eight goals as being from
the center position). But it would be a
stretch to expect an immediate impact from the youngster. There is this, though. On Hallowe’en 2003, Alexander Semin scored
the game-winning goal in his first career game at Verizon Center, a 2-1 win over the
Atlanta Thrashers to end what was an eight-game winless streak for the
Caps. On October 5, 2005, Alex Ovechkin
scored two goals in his Verizon Center debut, a 3-2 win over the Columbus Blue
Jackets in the 2005-2006 season opener. Maybe
it’s a Russian forward thing. No
pressure, kid.
Keys:
1. Not So
Special. Pittsburgh has the best special
teams in the league, first on the power play, first in penalty killing. Unless the Caps enjoy a whopping advantage in
power play opportunities (they do lead the league in that statistic; Pittsburgh
is tied for 17th), the Caps are likely to have to earn points with better play at
5-on-5.
2. Two-Minute
Drill. The Caps have had their issues
with allowing goals within two minutes of scoring one themselves. Pittsburgh has the firepower at the top of
the roster to add to this misfortune and to score in bunches. The Caps need to be especially disciplined in
such situations. They can’t let one of
theirs become one of the Penguins’, and they certainly can’t let one for them
become two…or three.
3. Tend to
Business. The Caps have not goalies
steal many games this season. The
Penguins are not particularly prolific in generating shots (tied for 14th
in shots per game), but they are efficient (tied for second in shooting
percentage: 10.3 percent). Whether
Jaroslav Halak or Braden Holtby tends goal, they will have to raise their game.
In the end…
The Penguins are on cruise control in terms of a playoff
spot, the only matter left to settle is whether they or Boston will be the
one-seed in the Eastern Conference. The
Caps are, or should be, the more desperate team. They have rarely played that way this season,
and when they have, they have been inconsistent in displaying that trait. Two wins would go a long way to making the
tough March schedule successful. Not
entirely, mind you, since the Caps still have a west coast trip and home dates
against Los Angeles and Boston to navigate.
But it would be nice to put these in the bank and let the Penguins know
that there is still some life in this rivalry.
Capitals 4 – Penguins 2 (at Washington)
Capitals 3 – Penguins 2 (at Pittsburgh)
