“The more successful the villain, the more successful the
picture.”
-- Alfred Hitchcock
If a hockey game is a drama played out in three acts 82
times a season, Radko Gudas seems to have been cast as a villain in the
production. Not that he hasn’t played
the role successfully. Since he came
into the league with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2012-2013 season, only thre
defensemen have accumulated more penalty minutes than Gudas (579) – Dustin
Byfuglien (661), Dion Phaneuf (609), and Mark Borowiecki (587). He and Erik Gudbranson are the only
defensemen over that period to have been charged with two match penalties. Only Byfuglien has been hit with more
misconduct penalties (12) than Gudas (eight), and only Erik Johnson can match
the four game misconducts he earned over those seven seasons. He has been suspended by the league four
times for a total of 21 games.
The odd thing about Gudas’ game, though, he how much more
refined it has become with time. Of
those 579 penalty minutes, 268 of them came in two seasons – 2013-2014 with
Tamp Bay (152) and 2015-2016 with Philadelphia (116), both of which were his
first full seasons with those respective teams, perhaps signaling a desire to
make a point, or at least an impression.
Since that 2015-2016 season with the Flyers, though, Gudas’ penalty
minute totals have been in continuous decline – 93 minutes in 67 games (1.39
per game) in 2016-2017, 83 minutes in 2017-2018 (1.19), and 63 in 77 games last
season (0.82).
Time did play a part in his performance with the Flyers last
year in another way. Philadelphia was
6-5-0 in games in which Gudas skated more than 20 minutes, so you might expect
they were better when he had a light ice time load. That was not the case. The Flyers were 11-13-3 in the 27 games in
which he skated less than 17 minutes.
Odd Gudas Fact…
Despite recording a game-winning goal in each of his first
four NHL seasons, four out of a total of nine goals scored, he does not have a
game-winner in any of his last three seasons out of a total of 12 goals scored.
Bonus Odd Gudas Fact…
In 77 games played for the Flyers last season, Gudas was not
credited with a hit in only four of them.
Fearless’ Take…
For a player with a reputation as a bruiser, Radko Gudas’ numbers
other than those involving penalties and hits and the like are quite
respectable. He is not a big producer on
offense, but he was one of five defensemen with 20 or more points for the
Flyers last season (4-16-20). His plus-6
rating was tops among Flyer defenseman and the only “plus” defenseman among the
six who appeared in at least 30 games.
His individual shot attempts-for percentages were decent as well. He was third among Flyer defensemen in
overall SAT percentage (49.60 percent; minimum: 30 games) and third in tied
situations (49.12 percent). Last year
was the first in his last five seasons (four with Philadelphia, one with Tampa
Bay) that he finished under 50 percent in the overall category.
Cheerless’ Take…
Can’t say Gudas being engaged in the offensive end was a big
deal. The Flyers were 10-10-1 in games
in which he had three or more shots on goal last season. Then again, at the other end they were 5-7-3
in the 15 games in which he didn’t record a shot on goal. Did being physical matter? Well, to a point. The Flyers were 10-2-2 in games in which
Gudas was credited with five hits, but with more than five hits they were
4-4-1. Paying a price? In 23 games in which he had three or more
blocked shots, the Flyers were 7-10-6.
One had the feeling that the less one noticed Gudas, statistically, the
better the team did.
Potential Milestones:
- 100 career assists (81; he needs 19)
- Top-20 all time in points by a defenseman born in Czech Republic (105; he needs 30 to tie Jan Hejda (135))
- Top-20 all time in goals by a defenseman born in Czech Republic (24; he needs one to tie Hejda (25)
- Top-10 all time in penalty minutes by a defenseman born in Czech Republic (579; he needs 40 to tie Roman Polak (619))
The Big Question… Will the view that Radko Gudas is an
improvement on Matt Niskanen be reflected on the ice?
Turnover is a regular feature of life in the NHL. However, there are those instances in which a
certain familiarity and culture takes root with a club. In that respect, this is a big season for the
Capitals and Radko Gudas. The player for
whom he was traded, Matt Niskanen, played for five seasons in Washington. He was one of three defensemen who played for
the club in each of those five seasons.
He and Brooks Orpik (retired) have departed, leaving John Carlson as the
only member of that cohort left.
Niskanen was plagued by declining production over his last
three seasons, while Gudas was displaying a consistency for the Flyers (albeit
at a lower offensive level than Niskanen).
It seems likely that Gudas will
step into the spot alongside Dmitry Orlov on the second pair vacated by
Niskanen. An open question with that
pair is whether any residual lack of discipline in Gudas game will expose Orlov’s
game in ways it was not with Niskanen as his partner.
The analysts seem to think Gudas is a clear improvement at
both ends of the ice.
That the Caps were able to swing a deal for Gudas while the Flyers retained a substantial portion of his salary, leaving the Caps with half the cap hit in
Gudas ($1.345 million) than Philadelphia has in Niskanen ($5.75 million,
according to capfriendly.com), is a managerial plus.
But now, the task falls to Todd Reirden and the rest of the coaching staff to
make sure the new piece is at least as good a fit as Niskanen was in
Washington, even if that fit was a bit rough the last couple of years.
In the end…
Radko Gudas might be that player for whom the analyticals
inform in a unique way. Observationally,
and for much of his career statistically, he has the profile of an edgy player
who leans heavily on the physical game.
It has not been all that long since he was pronounced the NHL’s dirtiest
player by one commentator.
But the folks who delve more deeply into a player’s underlying numbers paint a
portrait of a defenseman who is underrated at both ends of the ice. Gudas has been successful, individually, when
perceived as a villain, but his teams have not been quite so successful. He joins a contender with an opportunity to
demonstrate that he can be the “reformed” villain who, while perhaps not quite
entirely having been civilized, demonstrates those talents at both ends of the
ice the analysts respect.
Projection: 75 games, 5-14-19, plus-3
Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America
