The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals take the ice on Wednesday night in
the back half of their third back-to-back set of games this season when they
visit the Winnipeg Jets at Bell MTS Place.
The Caps will be taking on the Jets fresh off their contest on Tuesday
night in Minnesota against the Wild (not yet played when this was published).
Winnipeg is showing signs of coming out of a rut they were
in over a two week period in which they alternated wins and losses
(2-3-0). Wins in consecutive games at
home over the Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils gave the Jets consecutive
wins for the first time since they had a three-game winning streak in Games 7-9
in mid-October.
The Jets have been formidable on home ice, though, going
7-2-1 in ten games so far. That is due
in large part to right winger Blake Wheeler treating teammates like Oprah
Winfrey treated studio audience guests… “YOU get a goal….and YOU get a goal…and
YOU get a goal…” Wheeler has 14 assists
in ten home games so far, the most of any player in the league in games played
on home ice (Nicklas Backstrom and Thomas Chabot have 11 apiece). This is hardly new for Wheeler. Since 2011-2012, when the Jets moved from
Atlanta to Winnipeg, no player in the league has more assists on home ice than
Wheeler, who is tied with Philadelphia’s Claude Giroux with 204 helpers. He already has four multi-assist games on
home ice this season, tied for the league lead with three other players (one of
them is Washington’s John Carlson). Only
once in ten home games so far this season has he failed to record a point, and that
coming in a 5-4 overtime loss to the Edmonton Oilers on October 16th. Wheeler is 5-12-17, plus-5, in 33 career
games against the Caps.
Dustin Byfuglien has more goals (120) than any defenseman in
Winnipeg Jets history, including the years spent in Atlanta as the
Thrashers. That goal total is more than
twice as many goals as Toby Enstrom (54), and his 398 career points with the
club are 90 more than Enstrom. Byfuglien’s
24 game winning goals are almost as many as the next five players on the list
of defensemen (Enstrom, Yannick Tremblay, Jacob Trouba, Franitsek Kaberle, and
Andy Sutton combined for 26). He has
displayed an odd consistency in his game with respect to recognition. Over his
first seven seasons in Winnipeg after moving from Atlanta, he finished between
11th and 15th in all-star voting among defensemen and
between 12th and 15th in Norris Trophy voting six times
apiece (he was shut out from both in 2013-2014). He missed a pair of games to an upper body
injury in mid-October, but he still leads all Winnipeg defensemen in overall
scoring so far (2-11-13). In 29 career
games against the Capitals, Byfuglien is 5-13-18, minus-6.
Connor Hellebuyck was supposed to be the next big thing in
goaltending this season. Coming off a
season in which he led the league in wins (44), posted a 2.36 goals against average
and a .924 save percentage, and finished second in both all-star voting at the
position and in the Vezina Trophy voting, it seemed that all that was left for
him was to take the next step and backstop the Jets to a Stanley Cup final this
season. Things have not started smoothly
on that journey, though. He came out of
the starting blocks inconsistent, going 4-3-1, 2.99, .907 in his first eight
appearances. He has given recent
indications of finding his footing, though, going 3-2-0, 2.63, .919 in his last
five appearances. However, he still
ranks 28th among 46 goalies with at least 300 minutes in goals
against average overall (2.86) and 22nd in save percentage
(.912). Hellebuyck is 2-1-1, 2.40, .926
in four appearances against the Caps.
1. Twice this season
the Jets had five-plus-game stretches in which they alternated wins and
losses. In addition to the 2-3-0 record
they posted in Games 10-14 before their two game winning streak going into this
game, they opened the season alternating wins and losses over their first six
games (3-2-1).
2. Winnipeg has
scored five or more goals on home ice four times this season. Through Monday’s games, no team had done it
more often (three others with four: Boston, Calgary, and Montreal).
3. The Jets are not
that productive a team at even and full strength. Their 26 goals at 5-on-5 is more than just
four other teams, and they are a minus-4 in goal differential, having allowed
30 goals at fives.
4. While the Caps
have been a very productive team in the middle periods of games this season (26
goals, tied for first), the Jets are not.
Their 11 second period goals is fewer than every team in the league
except Calgary (10).
5. With a 4-3-0
record when opponents score first, the Jets are tied for the third-best winning
percentage when allowing the first goal (.571, with Montreal).
1. Since the Jets
moved to Winnipeg for the 2011-2012 season, the Caps are 6-3-2 on Jets’ ice and
have outscored Winnipeg by a 29-24 margin, despite being out-shot,
367-304. Oddly enough, both teams have
123 penalty minutes when meeting in Winnipeg.
2. Half of the six
wins the Caps recorded in Winnipeg came by shutout – a 1-0 blanking on December
15, 2011; a 3-0 win on March 2, 2013; and a 4-0 shutout on March 21, 2013. Michal Neuvirth authored the first of them,
Braden Holtby the latter two.
3. Alex Ovechkin has
scored more goals against the Atlanta/Winnipeg franchise than he has against
any other blub (47 in 63 games).
4. The same could be
said for Nicklas Backstrom. His 17
career goals against the Jets are tied for the most he has against any
franchise (Philadelphia being the other).
5. The Caps have ten
players in “minus” plus-minus territory.
They had only eight over the entire previous season. Lars Eller’s minus-9 is already at the level
Brooks Orpik was for the whole season.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Winnipeg: Patrik Laine
Patrik Laine will not turn 21 years old until April, but he
is already closing in on 100 NHL goals (he has 88 in 171 games). Coming into this season he was one of three
players since the cancelled 2004-2005 season to record 80 or more goals over
his first two seasons (80 goals in 155 games), joining Alex Ovechkin (98 in 163
games) and Evgeni Malkin (80 in 160 games).
Of the three, he did it most efficiently, connecting on 18.0 percent of
his 445 shots on goal (Ovechkin was at 12.0 percent, Malkin at 15.6 percent).
It is early yet, but this year has seen a
drop in Laine’s shooting efficiency (12.5 percent) that has resulted in “only”
eight goals in 16 games. And, only one
of those goals have come at even strength, the other seven on power plays
(leads the league). Laine started fairly
well with three goals in his first seven games, but then he hit a dry patch
with no goals over a five-game stretch.
He is heating up, though, posting three five goals (including a hat
trick) in three games before having his three-game goal streak stopped against
the New Jersey Devils on Sunday. Laine
is 1-0-1, minus-6, in four games against the Caps.
Washington: Todd
Reirden
Not a player, but it is fitting to ponder the new coach’s
situation. Coming in right behind a Stanley
Cup winning coach with the team that won the championship returning almost
intact put Todd Reirden in a difficult position. Plainly put, he was – is – supposed to
win. But he has had to deal with the
consequences of a short summer, a lengthy suspension to an important player,
injuries to the blue line, departures of two players who were very good in the
roles they filled (Jay Beagle for defense, faceoffs, and penalty killing;
Philipp Grubauer as backup goaltender), and new coaches assisting him. It isn’t so much a systemic problem he faces
through the first six weeks of the seasons as much as it has been weaknesses at
critical joints in the structure.
Reirden has
displayed a calm demeanor in what has been to the rest of Capitals Nation a
frustrating lack of consistency of effort and success over the first six weeks. If there is one thing that he seems to have a
lack of urgency about, it is a penalty kill that cannot be described in
pleasant terms. The return of Tom Wilson
and Brooks Orpik might help to shore up that weak penalty kill, but it is hard
to think they will mean a nine point improvement from where they are now (71.7
percent) to where they finished last year (80.3 percent, hardly one of the
elite PK units). There are bigger
problems to be addressed that might be Reirden’s biggest challenge behind the
bench so far, and considering that Winnipeg has the league’s top home power
play (40.7 percent), the challenge just gets tougher.
In the end…
This game might be decided on the basis of opportunities –
power play opportunities. These are two
of the most efficient power plays in the league, the Jets having by far the
best home power play (the Caps are at 36.8 percent on home ice), while the Caps
are second overall in the league (31.5 percent). What the Jets have not had is a lot of power
play chances on home ice, only 27 in 10 games, tied for sixth-fewest in the
league. The Caps are going to have to
keep clear of the penalty box to give themselves the best chance to get two
points out of this game.
Capitals 3 – Jets 2
