Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins: The Cousins Sittin' On The Porch Looking Back at Game 2

Fans of the Washington Capitals either were not born, too young, or have had too many ugly things happen in their history of watching the Caps and Pittsburgh Penguins to recall that this history began with a 4-2 Caps win over the Penguins in their very first postseason meeting on April 17, 1991.  Since then, the history has been lopsided in its ladling of happiness, piling it up on the plates of Penguins and Penguin fans and doling it out with an eyedropper to Capitals and Caps fans.  On Saturday night, the Penguins made themselves home in Verizon Center and had six helpings of fun and joy in a 6-2 win over the Caps to put the club down, 0-2, in games as the series heads to Pittsburgh.  The cousins have seen this movie before.

Fearless… Give the Caps credit, they are in uncharted territory here.  Never in any of their previous nine postseason series against the Penguins have they found themselves in an 0-2 hole in games.  Three times they had a 2-0 lead (and lost each time); six times they split the first two games (and lost five times).  If history is a guide (and it is, but that’s all it is, not a manual), this will either end in a sweep for the Pens (the last time the Caps lost Games 1 and 2 at home, they were swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning), or they will win the series (the time before that, they beat the New York Rangers in seven games).

Cheerless… Back in 2015, the Caps won five straight postseason games on home ice, tying their longest streak of success at Verizon Center since 2008.  Since those five consecutive wins, the Caps are 6-6 on home ice in the postseason and have lost three of five games so far this year.  Since 2008, the Caps have been a dominating team on home ice in the regular season, a so-so one in the postseason…

*****

Cheerless… It didn’t take long…

Fearless… Alex Ovechkin has had a hand in three of the Caps’ four goals in this series and scored one of them himself.  Sidney Crosby has had a hand in four of the Penguins’ nine goals and scored two of them himself.  The stars are doing their jobs, scoring wise.  Pittsburgh has seven goals from four players not named “Crosby;” the Caps have three goals from three players not named “Ovechkin.”  The second line for the Caps has one goal on 14 shots; the third line has no goals on eight shots.  That which was built for this series looks like a vacant warehouse so far.

*****

Fearless… Over an infinite number of trials, a team with the sort of shooting dominance the Caps have had at 5-on-5 in this series would do very well.  They have out-attempted the Penguins, 141-68 (67.5 percent), out-shot them at fives by a 57-34 margin (62.6 percent).

Cheerless… 5-on-5 goals for and goals against... Penguins 6 – Capitals 3.  The rest is just fancystat porn.

*****

Cheerless… One number no Caps fan would have expected in this postseason: .911.  That is Braden Holtby’s save percentage in the postseason, 13^th of 16 goaltenders having played in at least 100 minutes.  He has a .829 save percentage in this series.  He now has a career postseason record against Pittsburgh of 2-6, 2.80, .910.  Not the Holtby Caps fans recognize.

Fearless… “Hot goalie” again.  It being Marc-Andre Fleury makes it especially difficult for the Caps, but he’s got the third-best save percentage of those 16 goalies with at least 100 minutes of ice time and has done it facing the most shots per 60 minutes (37.0).  He’s playing himself into the Conn Smythe conversation.  Sort of the “anti-Cam Ward,” the veteran who comes in as a backup to lead his team to success.

*****

Fearless… Losing the first two games at home in a series is not a death sentence when it comes to winning a Stanley Cup.  The Carolina Hurricanes did it in 2006, dropping Games 1 and 2 on home ice to the Montreal Canadiens in the first round before going on to win the Cup.  The Boston Bruins did it in 2011, coming out on the wrong side of home ice decisions in Games 1 and 2 against the Canadiens in the first round before righting themselves and winning the title.  It has happened before.

Cheerless… Maybe the Caps should have played Montreal instead of the Penguins.

*****

Peerless… A lot is going to be made over the Penguins blocking 33 Capitals shots in Game 2 and scoring two goals as a direct result of blocked shots.  That is being opportunistic.  That is effective counter-punching.  But if the Caps could finish what they started with the pressure they applied on the Penguins early in both Games 1 and 2, the conversation would be very different.  The “blocked-shot-leads-to-goals” comes a couple of steps after “Caps-pile-up-Corsi’s-to-no-effect.”  The persistent thread that runs through the history of the Caps’ postseason since 2008 is a lack of scoring depth, of being unable to translate pressure into points.  Alex Ovechkin has had a hand in 88 of 226 goals scored by the Caps in those nine (and counting) playoff seasons covering 92 games.  Washington is going to need to find other sources for production in this series, as the Penguins have so far (and so, it would seem, in just about every series ever played between these teams), or this is not going to end well for the men in red.

Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 2: Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - Washington Capitals 2

What five days ago seemed like a series with the potential for being the best of the first two rounds and for the Washington Capitals a long-awaited vanquishing of their nemesis of the past two decades, has now become a scene reminiscent of the last hours of the Titanic, a slow, inexorable, and what is starting to look like inevitable conclusion.  The Washington Capitals dropped their second game in two tries on home ice, coming out on the short side of a 6-2 decision in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday night.

The Caps looked like world-beaters in the first period, dominating possession and pinning the Pens in their own end, but they did not convert their advantage on the shot clock into goals and went to the first intermission scoreless.

The Caps paid for their failure.  It started, almost as a cliché, given their opponent, with a Caps power play in the first minute.  Jake Guentzel took a hooking penalty 29 seconds into the middle frame, putting the Caps on a power play.  However, it would be the Penguins taking advantage to score first.  A Kevin Shattenkirk drive from the top of the offensive zone was blocked by Matt Cullen into the neutral zone.  Cullen worked his way around Shattenkirk to win the race to the puck, broke in on goalie Braden Holtby, and with a delayed penalty on Shattenkirk about to be called, slid the puck between Holtby’s pads to make it 1-0, Pens, 1:15 into the period.

The Caps scored later on that same power play to tie the game.  Holtby sent a long pass up the right wing wall that found its way into the Penguin end.  From the corner, Nicklas Backstrom worked the puck to Alex Ovechkin at the right point.  His slap pass was right on the tape of Matt Niskanen at the edge of the left wing circle, and his one-timer beat Marc-Andre Fleury at the 2:09 mark to make it a 1-1 game.

The teams remained tied for more than ten minutes, but Pittsburgh scored a pair of goals in a three-minute span late in the period to take command of the game.  Phil Kessel took a pass from Sidney Crosby in the right wing circle and snapped a shot past Holtby at the 13:04 mark to break the tie.  Guentzel added to the lead off a blocked shot in his own end when he led a 2-on-1 rush with Bryan Rust.  He called his own number, snapping a shot on the short side past Holtby’s glove to make it 3-1 at the 16:14 mark.

Holtby was pulled to start the third period, but the goal scoring did not stop for the Penguins.  On an early power play, Kessel circled out of the left wing circle and ripped a shot past Philipp Grubauer to make it 4-1.

Backstrom got that one back less than two minutes later, following up an Alex Ovechkin shot off Fleury’s right pad, beating Ian Cole to the puck, and stuffing in in the open side of the net at the 3:44 mark.

It would be the Caps’ last gasp.  The Penguins scored less than two minutes after Backstrom’s goal, Evgeni Malkin redirecting a shot by Cole past Grubauer, the goal allowed after initially waved off for what was first seen as goaltender interference.  Guentzel added an empty net goal with 43 seconds left for the final 6-2 margin.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps out-attempted the Penguins, 30-8 in the first period at 5-on-5, but the seeds of their destruction were sown in the last few minutes of the period.  They did not have a 5-on-5 shot attempt in the last two-plus minutes of the period (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

-- Let’s put this another way.  The Caps recorded their 30^th shot attempt at 5-on-5 at the 17:41 mark of the first period, an Alex Ovechkin shot that was blocked by Matt Cullen.  Pittsburgh recorded their 30^th shot attempt at 5-on-5 at the 5:31 mark of the third period on Evgeni Malkin’s redirect of an Ian Cole shot for a goal to make it 5-2.  Those two moments more or less captured this game.

-- Through two games, the Caps have out-attempted the Penguins by a 141-68 margin at 5-on-5 (67.5 percent Corsi-for), including 61-32 in this game.

-- Alex Ovechkin had two assists, his seventh career multi-assist game in the postseason.  The Caps are 3-4 in those games.

-- Second line had a rough night.  Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Justin Williams each finished minus-3, were blanked on a combined six shots on goal and had 15 generally fruitless shot attempts.

-- This was the fifth game in the postseason that the Caps finished with 35 or more shots on goal (they had 36).  They are 2-3 in those games, and both wins came in overtime.

-- This was the first time in 54 career postseason games that Braden Holtby was pulled early, not involving getting an additional attacker on the ice.  He’d never finished a game with less than 57:33 of ice time in his postseason career before this game.

-- Washington had more shot attempts go awry (52; 33 blocked, 19 missed) than Pittsburgh had in total (45).

-- Nicklas Backstrom had a goal and an assist, his 16^th career multi-point game in the postseason.  It was the first time in his career Backstrom had a multi-point game in a regulation loss in the playoffs.  The Caps are now 10-6 in those games, the first five losses coming in overtime.

-- Matt Niskanen’s goal was his first postseason goal as a Capital in his 34^th playoff game with the club.

In the end…

This was the team built specifically to vanquish the Penguins.  The Penguins were the team it seemed all of Capitals Nation wanted to play on the way to the Stanley Cup.  Well, if it can be said that all roads to the Stanley Cup go through Pittsburgh for this franchise, the Caps have never found a way out of town to continue that journey.  And if this team is different, really and truly different, they are now going to have to find in ample supply of the one thing that no team before them has evidenced in large supply – resolve.  Without it, Caps fans might have seen their last game at Verizon Center this season.  No one would have said that a week ago.

Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins: The Cousins Sittin' On The Porch Looking Back at Game 1

The Washington Capitals find themselves behind the eight-ball almost before their second-round playoff series against the Pittsburgh Penguins is fully underway.  The cousins watched as the Caps came back, only to yield a game-winning goal late.  So what did they think of the way things transpired?

Cheerless… According to that “whowins.com” web site, teams that win Game 1 on the road in the second round win a series about 59 percent of the time. 

Fearless… Yeah well, the Caps won Game 1 eight times in the nine previous series between these teams.  In those eight Game 1 wins they won the series once.  One thing to note; the Caps have never had worse than a split of the first two games of a series against the Penguins (although they are just 4-5 in Games 2 of their nine series against the Pens).

*****

Fearless… No Capital skater was “minus” in 5-on-5 shots attempts for and against on ice last night.  As a team, the Caps were plus-40, a Corsi-for of 63.68 percent (numbers from Corsica.hockey).  And the entire plus-40 was realized in the last 36 minutes of the game.  You don’t find that level of domination at this level in a second-round playoff game.

Cheerless… Sure, and the third line of Andre Burakovsky, Lars Eller, and Tom Wilson was a plus-18 all by themselves.  They also have three goals in the postseason, none of them from either Burakovsky or Eller, and Wilson has two goals with this line.  “Corsi pretty, results sh*tty” isn’t a formula for success. 

*****

Cheerless… Are we going to go through this again?  Nick Bonino with the game-winning goal?  Again?? What’s next, Marc-Andre Fleury clearing a puck and having it hit a rut and hop over Braden Holtby’s stick?  Those guys sure get game-winners from odd places.  Jake Guentzel has two; Bryan Rust, Phil Kessel, and now Bonino have one.

Fearless… Except for a 52-second span of the second period, the Caps held Sidney Crosby in check.  He had five shot attempts and three shots on goal after the two goals he scored early in the second period and was under 50 percent on draws for the game.  On the other hand, we understand Mrs. Lincoln enjoyed the play up until that unpleasantness in the President’s Box at Ford’s Theater.

*****

Fearless… Alex Ovechkin had a 5-on-5 goal.  Not to put too fine a point on it, but it’s only his second even-strength goal of the postseason, his second in his last ten playoff games, as a matter of fact.  If it is a signal that he can be more productive at even strength, then the Caps could be just fine.

Cheerless… Well, Ovechkin didn’t get a power play goal, and the Caps are 13-2 all time when Ovechkin gets a power play goal.  Of course, his cause might have been helped if the Caps actually had a power play.  That was just the fourth time in the Ovechkin era that the Caps did not have a power play opportunity (the second against the Penguins).  The Caps are 1-3 in those games.

*****

Cheerless… The Caps are 2-2 in series in the Ovechkin era when losing Game 1 at home.  They beat the Rangers in seven games in 2009, lost to Montreal in 2010 in seven games, were swept in four games by Tampa Bay in 2011, and won in seven games over the Islanders in 2015.

Fearless… If the Caps can just get past these coin-flip games.  That’s eight one-goal games in eight contests.  One-goal decisions have not been kind to the Caps.  Since 2008, the Caps are 44-47 in one-goal decisions in the postseason.  They really have been “coin-flips.”

*****

Peerless… Possession matters…in the aggregate.  For the Caps alone, not so much.  Since 2008, the Caps are the fourth-best possession team in the NHL in the postseason, measured as Corsi-for percentage (51.79 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).  Last night, they dominated the Penguins, overwhelmed them in fact, over the last 36 minutes of the contest.  There are no bands on the Stanley Cup for “Corsi-for,” though.  The Penguins, with the help of officials who seemed to forget to pack their whistles for the trip to Washington and snake-bit by a too-often inability to finish (seen this before in the postseason?), snuck off with a win.  It makes the challenge that much greater, but if the Caps can come close to dominating the possession numbers as they did in Game 1, they should still come out of this with a happy result, right?

…right?

Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 1: Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - Washington Capitals 2

The Washington Capitals opened their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Pittsburgh Penguins by digging themselves a hole, dropping a 3-2 decision on Thursday night.

After a scoreless first period, the Penguins struck twice in short order to start the second period.  Patric Hornqvist nudged a loose puck in the neutral zone to Jake Guentzel, who broke into the offensive zone with Sidney Crosby on a 2-on-1 break.  Guentzel fed the puck across to Crosby on his right, and Crosby swept the puck past goalie Braden Holtby’s glove at the 12 second mark of the period to give the Pens a 1-0 lead. 

Crosby struck again less than a minute later.  Guentzel pried the puck off the left wing wall and fed it to Olli Maatta entering the offensive zone for a one-timer.  Holtby made the save, but not cleanly, the puck dribbling out to the low slot where Hornqvist got a stick on it.  It was enough to nudge the puck to Crosby closing on the right side, and he buried it past Holtby to make it 2-0, 1:04 into the period.

That was how the score remained until late in the period, when the Caps halved the deficit.  John Carlson started the play by separating Evgeni Malkin from the puck just inside the Caps’ blue line.  T.J. Oshie picked it up and skated it out, carrying it into the Penguins’ zone where he dropped it for Lars Eller.  From the left point, Eller fed Alex Ovechkin cutting into the zone, and Ovechkin circled to the top of the left wing circle, where he snapped a shot that beat goalie Marc-Andre Fleury to make it 2-1 at the 18:17 mark.

The Caps continued pressuring the Pens in the third period, and it paid dividends mid-way through.  Matt Niskanen scooped up a loose puck in the right wing circle, curled out to the right wing wall, then fired a pass across to Evgeny Kuznetsov, who one-timed the puck into the open side of the net behind Fleury to tie the game 8:05 into the period.

Four minutes later, the Pens got what would be the game-winner when Justin Schultz sent a pass up from deep in the defensive zone to Scott Wilson at the Caps’ blue line.  Wilson found Nick Bonino cutting down the middle undefended, and Bonino converted the break with a shot past Holtby’s blocker at the 12:36 mark.  Fleury did the rest, holding the Caps off the board to give the Pens a 1-0 lead in the series.

Other stuff…

-- The game-winner was the second consecutive game-winner for Nick Bonino against the Caps in the postseason.  He had the series-clinching overtime goal in Game 6 last spring to eliminate the Caps in the second round.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had a difficult night in the faceoff circle, losing 13 of 17 faceoffs (23.5 percent).

-- The Caps out-hit the Penguins, 41-17, Alex Ovechkin leading the team with six.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov led the Caps with ten shot attempts (four on goal, one goal) and one of the stranger goal celebrations seen in these parts.

-- Matt Niskanen had an assist, his first point in the postseason since Game 1 against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

-- Kuznetsov has two goals in the postseason.  Oddly enough, both came in losses (the other was in a 4-3 overtime loss to Toronto in Game 3 of the first round).

-- Alex Ovechkin’s goal was his fourth of the postseason and the third time he scored a goal in a Caps loss.

-- The Caps had 19 missed shots in the contest, five of them recorded by Andre Burakovsky. 

-- Think three goals matters?  Braden Holtby is now 3-16 in the postseason when allowing three or more goals, 2-7 when allowing three.

-- What doesn’t belong in this comparison?  The Caps out-attempted the Penguins, 72-32, at 5-on-5 (63.68 percent Corsi-for); they out-shot the Pens, 30-18, at fives; and they were outscored by Pittsburgh, 3-2 at 5-on-5.

In the end…

Caps fans might take solace in the fact that the Caps dominated the Penguins over the last 38 minutes, after the second Pittsburgh goal.  And folks might point to the fact that of the four Games 1 in the second round, the road team won three of them, making one wonder if there is a sport in which the home arena advantage means less than in the NHL.  On the other hand, this was a squandered opportunity.  Dominating possession means nothing if it doesn’t translate into goals.  The Penguins took advantage of the rare opportunities they got – a 2-on-1 and a mini-breakaway.  The Caps did not take advantage of the relentless pressure they applied in the last half of the contest.  Is this a script, or a blip?  Guess we’ll have to wait for Game 2 to find out.

The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You: Eastern Conference Semifinal, Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

On Thursday evening, the Washington Capitals will open their second-round series in the 2017 postseason by hosting the Pittsburgh Penguins.  In the postseason history of the Capitals, they have faced no team more often than the Penguins.  In 244 postseason games in franchise history, the Capitals and the Penguins faced off 55 times (tied with the New York Rangers). 

It is a history dominated by the Penguins, who have won eight of nine series against the Caps and have a game record of 34-21.  Adding insult to injury, in each of the Penguins’ four Stanley Cup seasons, they defeated the Caps on their way to the championship, twice emerging victorious in a seven-game series, both times on Washington ice.  This is the historical baggage that the franchise carries into their second-round series against the Pens. 

History makes for interesting discussion, not to mention a fair amount of trolling, if you are the club on the winning side of the divide.  But it goes only so far.  As far as this season goes, it was an interesting four games between the clubs…

Four Snowflakes…Each One Different

The Caps had little problem finding the back of the Penguin net in the season series, averaging 5.25 goals per game over the four games.  They didn’t even have that much of a problem keeping the Penguins off the board, except for a bizarre 11-minute stretch of the second period of the contest between the teams on January 16^th in which the Penguins scored six goals on ten shots in what would be an 8-7 overtime win to end the season series.  That barrage pushed to the background the fact that over the rest of the series, the Caps held the Penguins to seven goals on 125 shots (a .939 save percentage).

It was one of two extra time wins the Pens posted in the season series, the other coming on Opening Night, when the Pens celebrated their Stanley Cup banner-raising with a 3-2 Gimmick win over Washington.  In between, the Caps turned the Penguins into sea lion chow with 5-2 and 7-1 wins at Verizon Center.

While each of the team won their games on home ice and lost on the road, the progress over the course of the season suggested the ice tilting in the Pens’ direction.  Washington out-shot the Penguins and out-attempted them at 5-on-5 in the first two games, which the teams split.  The Pens won those possession number comparisons in the last two games of the season series, also split by the teams.

The Caps were more efficient on offense over the course of the series, putting a larger share of their shot attempts on goal and scoring goals on a larger share of their shots on goal.

Balance/Imbalance

The Caps scored 21 goals in the four games.  In doing so, they had remarkable balance, albeit among a small (or perhaps smaller than expected) group of players.  Six skaters combined for 19 of the 21 goals, led (again, perhaps unexpectedly) by Nicklas Backstrom with four.  Five other skaters – Justin Williams, Lars Eller (another surprise), T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin, and Andre Burakovsky – each had three in the season series.  Brett Connolly and Dmitry Orlov rounded out the goal-scoring, Orlov being the only defender to record a goal in the season series for the Caps.

The setting up of goals did not exhibit quite the same balance for the Caps, and it had a substantively different mix of players.  Backstrom and Oshie led in assists with eight and seven, respectively.  The assist totals drop off from there, defensemen Matt Niskanen and John Carlson with four and three, respectively.  Marcus Johansson also had three.  The result was a scoring profile that was weighted to the top line.  Backstrom (12), Oshie (10), and Ovechkin (5, tied with Burakovsky) leading in points in the season series. 

On the other side, Pittsburgh finished the season with 13 goals in the four games, but more than a third of that total was recorded by Evgeni Malkin, who had five.  No other Penguin had more than two (Conor Sheary and Patric Hornqvist).  On the helper side, Justin Schultz led the club with six assists and tied Malkin for the team lead in points.  To the extent he could be contained, Sidney had five points (1-4-5) in three games, missing the Opening Night contest won by the Penguins, 3-2, in a Gimmick.

The Caps might have had a single goal from its defensemen in the season series, but Dmitry Orlov’s goal was still one more than the entire squad of nine defensemen to dress for the Penguins in the season series.  In addition to Schultz’ six assists from the blue line, Pittsburgh got helpers from Trevor Daley (3), Olli Maatta, and Kris Letang.

So…who are the obvious and the
not-so obvious key skaters for Washington?

Last year, the Caps got precious little in their series against the Penguins from Evgeny Kuznetsov, despite finishing tenth in the league in scoring.  It is part of a longer scoring drought Kuznetsov has had in the postseason, going 2-3-5, minus-5, over his last 19 postseason games.  He has not had much success against Pittsburgh over his career.  In 21 regular season and playoff games against the Penguins, Kuznetsov is 2-6-8, minus-5.  Kuznetsov started the 2016-2017 season slowly, going just 3-16-19, plus-5, in his first 36 games.  But starting with a four-point performance against the Toronto Maple Leafs in a 6-5 overtime win on January 3^rd (1-3-4), Kuznetsov went 16-24-40, plus-13, in his last 46 games and was in the top 20 in overall scoring over that period. If he can approximate that level of performance and reverse his sparse production against the Penguins, the Caps will be formidable.

The not-so-obvious, if still obvious player is Kevin Shattenkirk.  He is, quite literally, the “X-factor” for the Caps in this series.  He did not have a particularly productive series against the Toronto Maple Leafs at the offensive end of the ice (no goals, three assists, all on the power play).  However, he is 2-2-4, plus-1, in nine career regular season games against the Penguins.  That career scoring line includes an assist this season, but it also includes a no-point, minus-4 performance in a 4-1 Penguin win over the St. Louis Blues on February 4^th.  What he has not done is face the Penguins this season as a Capital, having joined the Caps on February 27^th via trade, after the season series against the Penguins had been completed.  Shattenkirk adds an offensive dimension to the Caps blue line – an ability to score goals – that was not present from the Caps this season against the Penguins.  His presence has to be accounted for and could open up things among the forwards.

And for the Penguins?

It would be borderline cliché to put Sidney Crosby’s name in the “obvious” category, but it fits.  In last spring’s series against the Caps, Crosby was held to a pair of assists in six games and was a minus-3.  He had just one power play point in the series.  This from a player who, in his other 123 career postseason games, is 51-91-142, plus-12.  And that includes a 2-5-7 scoring line in the Penguins’ opening round win over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  No Penguin has more career goals or points against the Caps in the postseason than Crosby, who is 8-7-15, plus-1, in 13 career playoff games against Washington.  Crosby does have a knack of rising to the occasion, but it is as often as not a performance that comes in the context of what are generally strong and deep teams (the Penguin Stanley Cup-winning teams, Team Canada).  In this series, even if the Penguins get some of their injured back, they will be a somewhat depleted bunch.  Crosby’s production is not a luxury in this series.  The Penguins have to have it.  If he is more the player he was when he faced the Caps in 2009, when he was 8-5-13, plus-4, in seven games, the Penguins could advance.  If he is held to a pair of assists, or something close to it, as he was last spring, it is hard to see how Pittsburgh moves on.

The not so obvious choice is Justin Schultz.  In the absence of the injured Kris Letang, the Penguins have a considerable dropoff in terms of threats that can keep defenses from cheating up on Penguin forwards.  Schultz, who led the Penguins’ defense in ice time per game in the opening round series against Columbus, did not have an even-strength point in that series (he had three power play assists, the only power play points among Penguin defensemen).  Schultz does not get mentioned often among the best offensive defensemen in the league, but he was one of just nine defensemen to record at least 50 points this season (12-39-51), and his plus-27 was sixth-best among league defensemen.  He is going to have to more closely approximate that level of production in this series than his career postseason line of 0-7-7, plus-1, in 20 playoff games.

What about the goaltending?

The opening round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs was a tale of two series for Braden Holtby.  In the first four games he was 2-2-0, 3.02, .907.  But in the last two games, after an off-day fine tuning session with coach Mitch Korn that might end up being a key moment in this postseason,  he stopped 61 of 63 shots, allowed just one goal in each game, and was the wall he has been for the Caps over the last two seasons.  Holtby is as money a postseason performer as there has been at the position since he became the Caps number one netminder.  In the modern era (post-1967 expansion), Holtby has the best goals against average (1.93) and save percentage (.937) of any goaltender appearing in at least 20 postseason games.  But here is your odd Holtby stat.  If the Caps should find themselves in the position of closing out the Penguins, it is a scenario that has been cruel to Holtby.  In 14 games in which he tended goal in a game in which the Caps could end a series, he has a record of 4-10.  But that comes with a 1.94 goals against average and a .931 save percentage with a shutout thrown in. 

With Matt Murray an iffy proposition for this series,  the nets would appear to belong to Marc-Andre Fleury for the foreseeable future.  And if it seems odd to think of Fleury as an unknown, consider that he has appeared in just a dozen postseason games over the last three seasons (only two in last year’s Stanley Cup run), over which he is 5-6 (one no decision), 2.40, .926; and he has not faced the Caps in the postseason since 2009.  He was 4-1 against the Blue Jackets in the first round with a 2.51 goals against average, but his .933 save percentage was solid.  What he has not been over most of his postseason career is a game-changer on the road.  He is 27-23 in 51 road playoff games, but his 2.88 goals against average and .902 save percentage could be a problem against what was the most successful team on home ice during the regular season.

Frustration Redux?

Last spring, the Caps held Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby largely in check, only to have the line of Carl Hagelin, Nick Bonino, and Phil Kessel – the “HBK Line” – account for seven of the 16 goals the Penguins scored against the Caps, two of those goals being game winners, including the series-clinching overtime goal in Game 6 by Nick Bonino.  That group has had a harder time of it so far this post season, combining for three goals, but two of those were scored by Kessel on power plays.  The question is, can Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust be the “who are these guys” guys for the Penguins this time around?  Guentzel (5) and Rust (4) combined for nine of the 21 goals scored by the Pens in the first round against Columbus.  The Caps can’t have another set of heretofore unsung players being heroes in this series.

Rediscovering the magic?

The trio of players that comprised the third line for the Caps for much of the season – Andre Burakovsky, Lars Eller, and Brett Connolly – combined for 39 goals this season, a respectable output considering they did not start the season together.  However, after March 1^st, this trio combined for just five goals, and in the first playoff round against Toronto did not record a goal.  One of the most important factors in last spring’s loss to Pittsburgh in the second round was the lack of production among the bottom six forwards, especially given the production the Penguins got from theirs.  If this group can recapture the magic they had at midseason, it will make for a steep hill for the Penguins to climb to reach the conference finals.

In the end…

Some might say the Caps took the Toronto Maple Leafs lightly, or that they were nervous about their exalted status as a pre-playoff favorite to go deep into the tournament.  Whatever one thinks of those interpretations, the Caps advanced, and the team they take into the second round seems constructed for the singular purpose of pushing past the Penguins.  Pittsburgh brings a wealth of postseason experience and the confidence having won the Cup provides, but they are thin on defense, they are lacking a certain level of production from players who provided it in last year’s Cup run, and there is perhaps just the faintest sense of uncertainty over how Marc-Andre Fleury will fare in goal against a team with more weapons than the Columbus Blue Jackets brought to bear in the first round. 

On the other hand, Alex Ovechkin did not have a particularly dominating series against Toronto, and his production is needed in this round.  Strangely, given the strength at forward both teams bring to the contest, it could come down to which defensive squad has the better series, both in moving the puck out of their own end and in contributing offense at the other end.  The absence of Kris Letang will be keenly felt in both areas, and Washington will take advantage of it.

Capitals in six

Washington Capitals: The Cousins Sittin' On The Porch Looking Back at Game 6

And now, for something completely different.  No, not the second round series against the Pittsburgh Penguins that starts on Thursday.  The Washington Capitals, heavily favored but given all they could handle by the upstart Toronto Maple Leafs, overcame a fair amount of adversity in Game 6 – a roaring Toronto crowd, a misaligned stanchion, another in what seems over the course of their history a series of “hot goaltenders – to tie the game in the last half of the third period, then score in the seventh minute of the first overtime to capture their first round series in six games over the Maple Leafs.

It was a tense evening for the cousins as the Caps once more tested the limits of their ability to stay calm and think good thoughts.   But let’s let them wrap things up…

Fearless… If you were playing the overtime goal challenge, you might have picked a half-dozen players as the potential hero before settling on Marcus Johansson, and that’s just among the Caps’ players.  Going into last night’s game, Johansson had seven goals in 61 career playoff games.  He had never scored more than two goals in any postseason.  It broke a nine-game streak without a postseason goal, dating back to Game 2 of last spring’s series against Pittsburgh.  He scored on each of his only two shots of the contest last night.  Oddly enough, it was the second time in his career that Johansson scored two goals in a playoff game, and both instances came on the road.  The other instance was in Game 4 of the Caps’ 2011 series against the New York Rangers, a game in which Johansson scored two third period goals that, following a goal by Alexander Semin earlier in that period, wiped out a 3-0 Rangers lead before Jason Chimera won the game in double-overtime.

Cheerless… The Caps had the fifth-worst scoring defense in the first round (2.67 goals against per game).  They four teams under them in the rankings? ...gone.  And they won a grand total of three games among them (Toronto had two of them).  Only two team allowed more shots on goal per game than the Caps (35.5).  Strangely enough, both of them are alive – Pittsburgh (38.8) and St. Louis (36.4).  And their faceoff winning percentage…woof!  They are 15^th of 16 teams in the playoffs at 46.0 percent.  Hey, draws don’t matter, right?  Well one, it’s attention to detail, and two…why would you dismiss possessing the puck for 10 or 15 seconds with every draw you win?  Put a team on their heels, forcing them to defend more often than not from a faceoff, might have a cumulative effect, eh?

*****

Feerless… Caps had the fourth-best special teams index (power play plus penalty killing rates) in the first round (118.5)…

Cheerless… The three teams ahead of them – Minnesota (129.7), Montreal (127.6), and Chicago (119.0) – are out.  And only Boston had more minor penalties in the first round (26) than the Caps (25).

*****

Cheerless… How close was this series?  The Caps outscored Toronto 18-16.  Washington was outshot, 213-211.  The Caps had 25 penalties, Toronto had 24.  The Maple Leafs were credited with 256 hits, the Caps had 241.  Washington had the advantage in blocked shots, 127-116.  And that was against the eight-seed.  Did the Caps play down to Toronto’s level, or did the Leafs play up to the Caps’ level?

Fearless… The Caps scored more first period goals in the first round than any team (eight) and tied Ottawa for the most goals in overtime (three).  Only Nashville (one) and Anaheim (none) allowed fewer third period goals than the Caps (three).

*****

Fearless… Washington had have the fifth-best Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in the postseason so far (51.30 percent).

Cheerless… They were seventh in adjusted Corsi (50.42 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey), and they had the second-worst adjusted Corsi Against/60 minutes (66.26).  Only Toronto was worse (67.39).

*****

Cheerless… The Caps kinda dodged a bullet getting as little output from Andre Burakovsky (two assists) even while he had pretty good possession numbers (best individual Corsi-for on the club at 5-on-5: 59.69 percent).  And one of the problems the Caps had last spring – a lack of bottom-six production – showed up in this series.  The five forwards not named “Wilson” finished with no goals and four assists.  The fourth line that finished the series (Brett Connolly for Tom Wilson) didn’t have a point in the series.

Fearless… At the other end, the top-six did their share.  The top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and T.J. Oshie accounted for eight goals, three of them on the power play.  The second line of Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Justin Williams accounted for six goals.  And every defenseman, save for Karl Alzner, who was limited to two games due to injury, recorded at least one point.

*****

Peerless… The knee-jerk reaction to a series like the one just ended would be to say that the Caps underachieved.  That does not give due credit to the Maple Leafs for the strides they took this season, especially over the last six weeks of the regular season in which their record and that of the Caps were virtually identical. 

In its own perverse way, Toronto might have been the best team for the Caps to face in the first round, even if things ended up closer than anyone might have expected, or wanted, for that matter.  Toronto’s strength at forward and team speed is as close an approximation as one is going to find in the East to what awaits the Caps in the second round against Pittsburgh.  If anything, the Penguins’ defense might be more vulnerable to exploitation, but the experience, not to mention the skill among their forwards will be formidable.  But for now, let’s just be thankful for a first round win.  And for Caps fans who might say, “so what, it’s just the first round,” remember… you can’t win four if you don’t win one.

Washington Capitals: The Cousins Sittin' On The Porch Looking Back at Game 5

The Washington Capitals are in a place with which they have some familiarity over the years, holding a 3-2 lead through five games of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series against the Toronto Maple Leafs.  A Game 5 usually means a series win, looking at the history of such things around the league.  For the Caps, though, it has not been as reliable an indicator of series success.  But we’ll let the cousins bat that back and forth…

Feerless… For much of the season, Capitals Nation has entertained the notion of this being a team different from any other in recent history.  They score like the 2009-2010 team…yeah, well this team is different.  They won 56 games last year, 55 games this year…yeah, well, this team is different.  In some respects, this team has been different.  It is arguably the best defense/goaltending performance in the post-2005-2006 era, if not team history.  They were actually pressed in the late season by Columbus and Pittsburgh this season while they coasted to a Presidents Trophy last season.  But the first meaningful indicator of whether this team is truly “different” this season comes on Sunday night when they can eliminate the Maple Leafs without letting things slide to a Game 7 in Washington on Tuesday.

Cheerless… Well, y’know, this whole “Game 5” thing hasn’t been much of a thing in this “era,” as you call it, cuz.  Since 2005-2006 the Caps took a 2-2- series into a Game 5 on home ice three times.  They won two of those games – in 2013 against the New York Rangers and in 2015 against the New York Islanders.  In those two series, they lost Game 6 in New York against the Rangers in 2013 before losing Game 7 on home ice, and in 2015 they lost Game 6 on Long Island before beating the Islanders at Verizon Center in Game 7.  Know what would really be different here?  Winning Game 6 on the road.

*****

Cheerless… When is this team going to put together a complete game and give us all a break?!  Five games, five one-goal games, four settled in overtime.  This is worse than that 2012 series against Boston that had seven one-goal games, four of them in overtime, including the Game 7 win on the road.  At least the Caps were an underdog in that series, or at least the lower seed playing the defending Stanley Cup champs.  And it’s not like the 2010 series against Montreal where the goalie played out of his mind in the last three games to steal the series from the Caps.  The Caps have played right to the level of their competition in this series.  High scoring games, low scoring games…no matter what, all one-goal games, and the Caps and coin-flips don’t go well together.

Fearless… Yes, this is a game between one- and eight-seeds.  But since March 1^st, their records are almost identical.  Washington was 13-6-1, while Toronto was 12-6-2.  Toronto has been rightly characterized as a young team, but they might not be getting enough credit for being a good one.  Sure, one could make the argument that they have had the benefit of some bounces, but they have put themselves in a position to take advantage of the opportunities those bounces provided.  Teams that lack a foundation in fundamentals might not find themselves in those positions.  The Caps have done well to fight through that and carry a 3-2 lead into Game 6.

*****

Fearless… Once more, the game on the ice and the “off season” game intersect.  Look at who scored the goals in Game 5 – T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams.  The players that the front office went out and acquired to address a specific shortcoming after the 2014-2015 season.  Those two are tied for the team lead in goals (three, with Tom Wilson and Alex Ovechkin), and they are first and third in points, respectively, in the postseason.  Each has a game-winning goal, Oshie’s coming in the third period of Game 4 and Williams’ coming last night in overtime of Game 5.  It is part of a broader theme of the veterans having a pretty good series.  Ovechkin is tied for the team lead with three goals in five games, while Nicklas Backstrom is 2-4-6, second on the team in points.

Cheerless… Then there are the young guys.  Evgeny Kuznetsov occasionally looks as if he is oh, so close on chances or about to break out in a big way, and he did have the primary assist on the overtime game-winner last night on a sweet feed.  But then again, that was his third point in five games.  Him having three and not, say, five, might be the difference between the Caps wining this series in five games and having to go to a Game 6 to close things out.  Then there is Andre Burakovsky.  Two assists in five games makes for 1-2-3 in 17 playoff games over the past two seasons.  And his ice time is starting to look like his performance.  He had 10:44 in Game 4 and 11:56 last night after three games over 13:30, one of them over 19 minutes.  Burakovsky isn’t the reason this series is close, but if he gets untracked it could end really quickly.

*****

Cheerless… The Caps are facing a hard climb in Game 6.  They beat Toronto in Game 4 at Air Canada Centre, but they have not won consecutive games on the road in the postseason since then won three in a row in 2012 against Boston (they haven’t won consecutive games on the road in regulation since 2010 against Montreal).  Since those wins against Boston in 2012, Washington is 6-16 on the road in the playoffs, 1-7 in overtime.

Fearless… The Caps have been in a position to win each of their last dozen games on the road in the postseason.  In those dozen games they have a 4-8 record, but all eight losses were by one goal, five of them in overtime.  To be fair, of the Caps’ four wins in that span, three were by one goal, but all of them in regulation.  It is not as if the Caps have been dominated on enemy ice the last two seasons, but they have been consistently on the wrong side of those close games.

*****

Fearless… If the Caps should be successful in this postseason, Tom Wilson’s effort late in the first period of Game 4 against the Leafs might be referred to as “The Shift” in Capitals lore.  But there might be a day remember in the future that was every bit as important that and that had nothing to do with a game.  Thursday was an off-day between Games 4 and 5, but while the skaters took advantage of the down time to recharge their batteries, goalie Braden Holtby took the ice at 10 a.m. to work with coach Mitch Korn to do some “fine tuning.”  You get the feeling Korn wouldn’t need a tuning fork to tune a Stradivarius or a Steinway (or that he’d bring a lot of funky tools to the job).  Whatever he and Holtby did had the desired effect, a 30-save effort when the Caps desperately needed one.  It might have been his best performance since he authored a 30-save effort in Game 5 of last spring’s second round series against the Penguins, the 3-1 win forcing a Game 6.  If Holtby has been sufficiently “fine tuned,” Toronto’s task becomes infinitely more difficult.

Cheerless… Cuz, about that game against Pittsburgh last spring.  Yup, it was a 30-save effort.  Yup, he allowed only one goal.  Yup, he won on home ice.  Yup, it came after he allowed three goals in three of his previous four games and after he lost three in a row to the Penguins.  But that Game 6 after that 30-save effort?  He allowed four goals on 42 shots and lost in overtime in what was the series-clinching win for the Penguins.  Maybe the key is going to be not letting Toronto use Holtby like a shooting gallery.

*****

Peerless… The Caps took a first period lead in each of the last two games, but they allowed the Maple Leafs to tie the game in the second period twice.  The second period is the only one in which the Caps have a negative goal-differential in the series (minus-2), and they have been outscored, 5-2, in the second periods over the last three games.  It might not be coincidental, the Leafs taking advantage of the long change with their speed to ramp up the pace of the game. The second period has been an issue all season long.  It is something that still bears watching.

The Capitals have had the chance to eliminate a team 20 times in since 2005-2006.  In those 20 games, they have a 5-15 record, 2-9 in their last 11 games in which they could have sent an opponent home.  What is most ominous in an historical context is that the Caps have never won consecutive decisions in games in that span in which they could have eliminated an opponent.  The last time they were in this situation, they eliminated the Philadelphia Flyers in Game 6 of their opening round series last spring.  Nothing would say – nay, scream – “we’re different”… “WE’RE DIFFERENT! – than ending this series in the Caps’ first chance to send the Maple Leafs off to the off-season. 

However, the thing to watch for now might be on the Toronto side of the ice.  The Maple Leafs have played a high-tempo, but determined sort of game for most of this series.  They have not looked like a team with seven rookies having dressed for games.  Now, however, the Leafs are facing elimination for the first time in this series.  If Shakespeare was a hockey guy, he might call this the “undiscovered country” for the Leafs (for Hamlet, it was death; for Toronto, it is elimination from the playoffs).  How the Maple Leafs deal with this situation might be what decides Game 6.

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game 5: Washington Capitals 2 - Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (OT)

The Washington Capitals put the Toronto Maple Leafs on the brink of elimination of their first-round playoff series with a 2-1 overtime win on Friday night in Game 6.  The win gave the Caps a 3-2 lead in the series as the teams head back to Toronto on Sunday night.

Washington, as they did in Game 4 and 5, took a first period lead.  With Nazem Kadri in the penalty box for the Leafs, the Caps scored on a late power play.  Kevin Shattenkirk started the scoring play backing the puck inside the Toronto blue line to create space.  He sent the back in the direction from where he came, to Nicklas Backstrom at the right point.  With space on that side, Backstrom stepped up and wristed a shot off the near post to the left of goalie Frederik Andersen.   The puck caromed out the far side, and T.J. Oshie was quick to circle in and backhand the puck past Andersen’s right pad before Zack Hyman could close on him.  The Caps had a 1-0 lead 18:15 into the period.

Toronto got the equalizer six minutes into the second period.  Working the puck below the Caps’ goal line, William Nylander circled out to the left of goalie Braden Holtby.  From the right wing faceoff circle he spun and fired a shot at the net.  It pinballed among a clot of bodies and slid out to Holtby’s right, where Auston Matthews was open.  Matthews stuffed the puck past Holtby’s right pad, and it was a 1-1 game.

That would be all the scoring until overtime, the fourth time in five games the teams went to an extra session.  It did not last long when a basic play that players have been seeing drawn up since they were playing pee-wee unfolded.  Jay Beagle won a defensive zone faceoff, and Matt Niskanen took control of the puck.  Skating to the red line, he dumped in deep behind the Toronto net.  Marcus Johansson was first to the puck and chipped it to Evgeny Kuznetsov in the corner to Andersen’s left.  Kuznetsov spied Justin Williams following the play down the middle, and he teed up a pass for Williams to lean into.  Williams’ one-timer from between the hash marks found its way between Andersen’s pads, and the Caps found their way to a 2-1 win...

Other stuff…

-- The fourth overtime game in this series ties for the most in a series in Caps history.  Washington and the Boston Bruins played four overtimes in 2012, each club winning twice, the Caps’ second win coming in Game 7.

-- Justin Williams’ overtime goal was the seventh game-winner in his career, his second in this series, and the third time he did it against the Maple Leafs (his first career game-winner came in a 6-1 win over Toronto in Game 7 of their opening round series in 2003). 

-- Getting to “two” was a good thing.  The Caps are 40-26 in playoff games since 2005-2006 when scoring two or more goals.

-- With the win, the Caps are now 12-17 in overtime decisions since 2005-2006 and evened their overtime record on home ice in that span at 7-7.

-- Alex Ovechkin skated a more normal 19:29 in ice time after consecutive games under 17 minutes.  His 15:4w4 in even strength ice time was second only to Evgeny Kuznetsov (15:47).

-- At the other end, Brett Connolly skated just 6:12 for the game and had only three shifts after the first period totaling 2:46.

-- Tom Wilson did not work or play well with others.  Four minor penalties, two of them for unsportsmanlike conduct.  It helped hold him to 10:14 in ice time and just a single shot attempt (on goal).

-- That Connolly did not have a shot attempt in his six minutes of ice time is not surprising.  A little less surprising that Jay Beagle didn’t have one, either, in 12:16 of ice time.  Daniel Winnik had all three shot attempts for the fourth line (shot on goal, a miss, a shot blocked).

-- The Caps had 22 blocked shots, not an extraordinary amount, but they did spread the bodily sacrifices around.  Twelve different skaters recorded at least one, with John Carlson leading the team with five.

-- The even-strength battle was fought to a virtual draw.  Toronto had 50 shot attempts to 48 for the Caps, while the Caps had 22 shots on goal to 21 for the Maple Leafs.  Each team had one goal at fives (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

In the end...

The off-day work Braden Holtby did with coach Mitch Korn appeared to pay off.  He was a good deal sharper than he has been at any time in this series and allowed one goal in a postseason game for the first time since he stopped 30 of 31 shots in a 3-1 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 5 of last spring’s second round playoff series.

The point has been made that the Toronto Maple Leafs are a team that won’t go away.  And now they are going home with their season in the balance.  Don’t count on the Caps going away.

Washington Capitals: The Cousins Sittin' On The Porch Looking Back at Game 4

The Washington Capitals wrestled home ice advantage back from the Toronto Maple Leafs in their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series on Wednesday night with a 5-4 win in Game 4 in Toronto.  It sets up a contest on the battlefield that has been the strategic focal point throughout the postseason history of the Capitals franchise – Game 5.  Let’s see what the cousins have to say about the game just completed and the one looming on the near horizon.

Fearless… It was not as much the five goals the Caps scored against the Maple Leafs in Toronto last night, it was the “who” got them.  A first liner got two (T.J. Oshie), a promoted third liner got two (Tom Wilson), and of course, the primariest primary scorer of them all got one (Alex Ovechkin).  Ten different players shared in the points – six forwards (five goals, four assists), four defensemen (four assists).  And about those defensemen, four of the six had a point.  Matt Niskanen and John Carlson did not record a point, but Carlson was a plus-3 (best on the club).  It might have been the most balanced offensive effort of the series for the Caps.

Cheerless… Two games, two times the Caps scored two goals before the game was five minutes old.  Two two-goal leads.  In fact, the Caps have had five two-goal leads in the last two games – 2-0 and 3-1 in Game 3; 2-0, 3-1 (which became 4-1), and 5-3 in Game 4.  They lost Game 3 in overtime and escaped by the skin of their teeth from another overtime in Game 4.  Here is a number you might not want to look directly at…in the last two games, the Caps were out-shot in the third period by a combined 28-9.

*****

Cheerless… Alex Ovechkin had 16:31 in ice time in Game 4.  That was almost 90 seconds more than he had in Game 3 (15:08), but it is the first time in 88 career playoff games that Ovechkin skated consecutive games with less than 17 minutes of ice time.  And there he was in the third period last night, getting just seven shifts in the third period (none in the last 4:33) and 4:51 in ice time.  Is this the Caps being cautious to a fault in the third period, trying to hold onto a two-goal lead?  Would they be better served by trying to plant the dagger in the Maple Leafs?

Feerless… Caution hasn’t been all bad.  Only three teams have allowed fewer third period goals than the Caps (two), and it perhaps no coincidence that Nashville and St. Louis hold commanding leads in their series, while the third team – Anaheim – completed their sweep of Calgary on Wednesday night.  I’m frankly more concerned with those first and second periods, in which the Caps have allowed five goals in each, blunting the momentum they have established early.  No team has more first period goals than the Caps in this postseason (seven), but Toronto is sitting right there with the third-highest first period goal total (five).  When the Caps get a lead, they need to do a much better job of standing on Toronto’s collective throat and not letting them off the floor and back into the game.

*****

Feerless… One of the things that has perhaps not gotten enough attention is the contribution from the blueline in this series.  Six of the seven defensemen to dress so far for the Caps have points, three of them having recorded two points.  It might not sound like much, but in 12 games last postseason, the Caps had six of eight defensemen record points, but only three with at least two points.  And, if you look at the seven defensemen to have dressed, specifically the “seventh” slot, which has been split between Karl Alzner (no points in the first two games) and Nate Schmidt (a point in each of the last two games), the Caps are getting, at the moment, balanced contributions from the defense.

Cheerless… It says something that three defensemen have at least ten shots on goal in four games.  But among John Carlson (15 shots), Dmitry Orlov (10), and Kevin Shattenkirk (17), they have one goal.  Getting shots to the net is a good thing – it creates the chance for rebounds, at the very least.  And what’s up with Brooks Orpik and Shattenkirk?  Minus-5 and minus-4.  Hurt?  Let’s just hope it’s a slump.  It happens to defenders, too.

*****

Cheerless… Caps fans always seem to have a sense of doom about them.  This shows itself in different ways in different postseasons.  This year it’s “the Leafs are getting all the bounces!”  There is a perception that more than a usual share of Leafs’ goals are being scored by deflections or the fortuitous (like that word, cuz?) bounce that leaves a puck right at the feet of an Auston Matthews or a Tyler Bozak with an open net in front of them.

Fearless… One of comforts of Corsi as an indicator over time is that it reflects the climate of a series.  Sure, a team might get a lucky bounce, a gork, a dribbler with eyes (Cheerless…cuz, stop doing your Crash Davis thing), but over the longer haul, the team that plays better is the team that will have more success.  It’s like the difference between weather and climate.  You’ll have hot days and cold days, dry days and wet days.  That’s how the weather changes, but over time, the trend moves generally in one direction – climate change.  Same here.  Some days you get the bounce; others the other guy gets it.  You might even see a couple or three games in a row where the other guy gets all the breaks, and you can’t buy one.  But over time, the team that “plays” better does better.  And right now, through four games, the Caps are fifth in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (51.33 percent).  Not that there isn’t room for improvement, since the Caps actually trail Toronto in adjusted Corsi-for, the Leafs seventh overall (50.73 percent) and the Caps tenth (49.27 percent).  If the Caps can press the advantage they have been securing early in games, they could finally break this team.

*****

Fearless… For all the unfortunate history of the Capitals in the postseason and the outsized importance of Game 5, this Caps team is in barely explored territory going into Game 5.  This is just the second time since the 2004-2005 lockout that the Caps will take the ice in Game 5 after tying a series at two games apiece with a win on the road.  They beat the New York Islanders in overtime of Game 4, 2-1, to tie their series, 2-2, before winning Game 5 by a 5-1 margin.  They went back to Long Island and lost Game 6, 3-1, but they prevailed in Game 7 on home ice in a 2-1 nail-biter to advance to the second round.  So, if you are looking for history to guide you here, there isn’t much to go on. 

Cheerless… Game 5 on home ice.  You’d think it matters.  Well, you wouldn’t be right.  You wouldn’t be wrong, either.  It just does not seem to matter all that much.  Since 2008, when the Caps returned to the playoffs for the first time since the 2004-2005 lockout, the Caps have hosted a Game 5 nine times.  They are 6-3 in those games.  OK, well did the wins in games lead to wins in series?  Not consistently.  In the six Games 5 that they won, the Caps went on to win the series three times, losing the series three times.  The odd thing is, they’ve alternated series wins and losses after Game 5 wins.  If they win Game 5 on Friday night, the arrow points this year to a series win after they lost their series against Pittsburgh in Game 6 last spring after winning Game 5.  As for the losses, the Caps lost two of the three series in which they suffered a Game 5 loss.  The exception was last season, when the Caps beat the Philadelphia Flyers in Game 6 in Philly after losing Game 5 on home ice.  If you are giving a lot of weight to the result of Game 5, win or lose, don’t.   

*****

Peerless… Through four games you have teams that are mirror images of one another.  One team has learned how to take advantage (the Caps) but hasn’t figured out a way to finish off their opponent decisively.  On the other hand, Toronto has allowed the Caps to do pretty much as they please early in games, especially the last two, but not so much that they can’t hang around and make the Caps nervous and dominate late. 

The series has become almost all about Washington at this point.  Can they win a decisive Game 5?  Can they close out the Leafs?  Can they actually make use of home-ice advantage?  They’ve faced similar questions in the recent past, and the answers have not been pleasant.  Consider Game 5 another chance for this team to prove that it is different – in a good way – from those Caps teams that preceded it.