Washington Capitals 2022-2023 Previews -- Forwards: Henrik Borgstrom

Henrik Borgstrom

 

 

Costello: Are you the manager?
Abbott: Yes.
Costello: You gonna be the coach too?
Abbott: Yes.
Costello: And you don't know the fellows' names?
Abbott: Well, I should.
Costello: Well then who's on first?
Abbott: Yes.
Costello: I mean the fellow's name.
Abbott: Who.
Costello: The guy on first.
Abbott: Who.
Costello: The first baseman.
Abbott: Who.
Costello: The guy playing...
Abbott: Who is on first!
Costello: I'm asking YOU who's on first.
Abbott: That's the man's name.
Costello: That's who's name?
Abbott: Yes.
Costello: Well, go ahead and tell me.
Abbott: That's it.
Costello: That's who?
Abbott: Yes.

 

Who is sixth (perhaps fifth, depending on where you stand on Connor McMichael being a center) on the depth chart of centers for the Washington Capitals, has a two-way contract, 110 regular season games on the NHL on his resume, and is a former first round draft pick (23^rd overall by Florida, the eighth center taken in the 2016 Entry Draft, 12 picks ahead of Jordan Kyrou and 16 picks ahead of Alex Debrincat)?

If you answered “Henrik Borgstrom” without looking it up, you should audition for a spot on “Jeopardy!”  Actuall, Borgstrom’s climb up the hockey career ladder has been rather conventional.  He had a fine season with HIFK in Finland’s junior league in the season before his draft (29-26-55 in 40 games).  After he was drafted, he joined the University of Denver collegiate hockey program where he played for two years (45-50-95 in 77 games over two seasons).  Then it was alternating between the Springfield Thunderbirds in the AHL and the Panthers over three seasons – 73 games with Springfield (16-29-45) and 58 with Florida (9-10-19).  Then came his first “sort of” connection to the Capitals when he was traded with former Capital Brett Connolly, a seventh-round draft pick in 2021, and Riley Stillman to the Chicago Blackhawks for Lucas Carlsson and Lucas Wallmark.  He played 52 games with the Blackhawks, going 4-3-7, minus-14, before his contract was bought out by Chicago last July 11^th and was signed by the Caps three days later on a one-year/$750,000 deal.

Odd Borgstrom Fact… He’s a Capital. Isn’t that odd enough?  OK, he’s a Finn.  Only seven players born in Finland have ever dressed for the Caps (Antero Lehtonen, Timo Blomqvist, Mikko Leinonen, Esa Tikkanen, Mika Elomo, Sami Lepisto, Oskar Osala).  Osala was the last Finn to suit up for the Caps, on March 10, 2010, in a 4-3 overtime win over Carolina.

Fearless’ Take… You might call Borgstrom’s presence with the Caps “insurance in depth” for a position that looked pretty deep last season but looks a bit thin and brittle at the moment with the injury to Nicklas Backstrom, the uncertain role Connor McMichael might play, and what lies in store for Lars Eller (will he stay? Will he go?).  He was a scorer in amateur hockey and in the AHL, and he is still just 25 years old, so one can harbor the hope that he has an untapped potential that lacks only an extended opportunity to express it.

Cheerless’ Take… Yeah, cuz…you hang on to that dream.  A 25-year old with scoring potential with what looked like a decent contract (one year remaining on a two-year/$2.0 million deal, and yeah, it was a one-way deal) doesn’t get his contract bought out by a team in the midst of a rebuild.  Over Borgstrom’s four years in the league, he is one of 13 players to appear in fewer than 125 games (110) and have an on-ice goal differential at even strength of minus-25 or worse (minus-28).  Sure, he played on some poor teams, but he didn’t seem to be part of the solution to whatever defensive shortcomings those teams had.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2022-2023

None on the horizon

The Big Question…  Will Henrik Borgstrom take the ice for the Caps this season?

It is hard to see how Borgstrom will get much, if any time with the big club absent significant adversity in the lineup or changes in the roster (trades, waiving roster players, etc.).  But that might be why he was acquired.  The roster, while perhaps reflecting a clear depth chart quality, is also uncertain, starting with the rehabilitation of Nicklas Backstrom and how long that might take.  That is not to say he would be unable to make a contribution if called upon, but his upside seems to be as a bottom-six forward, and he is going to have to impress at Hershey.  As a player in the walk year of his current contract, he has incentive to impress wherever and whenever called upon, but it would seem he would have to do so in Hershey this season.

In the end…

Let’s face it.  If Henrik Borgstrom gets much in the way of ice time with the Caps this season, chances are the team would be enduring quite a bit of adversity unless he plays out of his mind in training camp and wins a roster spot.  His signing is a bit curious, perhaps signaling at the club is not convinced that prospects such as Hendrix Lapierre or Aliaksei Protas are sufficiently seasoned to advance to the roster as centers.  Perhaps he would have value as an added player in a trade at the trading deadline.  He does, however, have the advantage of more than 100 regular season games of experience, and he has shown promise in the past as a scorer.  For a team with a “win now” mentality, his presence is evidence that the club will not skip the details, including providing depth in the bottom six forward spots, to address their chances for a long playoff run.

Projection: 5 games, 0-2-2, minus-1

Washington Capitals 2022-2023 Previews -- Forwards: Connor Brown

Connor Brown

“I have always been delighted at the prospect of a new day, a fresh try, one more start, with perhaps a bit of magic waiting somewhere behind the morning.”
-- J. B. Priestley

When the annual entry draft gets down to its later rounds, you might find a team selecting a hometown player.  This is not to say such a selection is done for public relations purposes.  In fact, it is a feel-good sort of action, but we are also talking about the best amateur players on the planet being taken among the 200-plus selections.  Even lower-round selections are skilled players.  One such case was in the 2012 Entry Draft when Connor Brown, a native of Toronto, was taken in the sixth round (156^th overall) by the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Brown was no stiff filling a role as hometown boy makes good with local team. When the Leafs selected him, Brown was coming off a year with the Erie Otters of the Ontario Hockey League in which he posted 25 goals and 53 points.  And he did it for a positively ghastly team that went 10-52-6.  It probably explains his minus-72 rating that season (no, that is not a misprint…minus-72; he had only eight games with a plus rating in 68 games played).

As Brown moved forward after being selected by the Maple Leafs, it seemed he took his modest draft status personally and used it as incentive.  His numbers improved dramatically with Erie over the next two seasons – 28-41-69, minus-11, in 63 games in 2012-2013, and 45-83-128, plus-44, in 68 games plus an 8-10-18 scoring line in 14 postseason games.  Upon moving up to the Toronto Marlies in the AHL, he was 32-58-90, plus-34, over 110 games over two seasons, and he was 8-5-13 in 20 postseason games with the Marlies.  Brown was a player who certainly outperformed his draft position in the apprenticeship phase of his career.

Odd Brown Fact… Brown has been uncommonly responsible with the puck in his career to date.  In four seasons with the Maple Leafs he had 120 takeaways and 68 giveaways (takeaway-to-giveaway ratio of 1.76:1).  In three seasons with Ottawa he had 159 takeaways and 119 giveaways (1.34:1).

Fearless’ Take… Although Brown is not producing numbers at quite the pace as an NHLer as he did in juniors or the AHL, he has been a productive middle-six forward.  In each of the last three seasons (all with Ottawa) he averaged more than 0.60 points per game.  Last season, six Caps forwards dressing for at least 25 games averaged at least 0.60 points per game (Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson, Nicklas Backstrom, Anthony Mantha, and Conor Sheary).  He averaged 0.25 goals per game over the last three seasons, matching T.J. Oshie’s average last year and topped by only four forwards on last year’s Caps team (Ovechkin, Wilson, Kuznetsov, and Sheary; minimum: 25 games).  Only four Caps forwards from last season (25 games or more) averaged more assists per game than what Brown averaged over the last three seasons (0.37) – Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Ovechkin, and Mantha.  The 11.3 percent shooting he posted over the last three seasons would have put him squarely in the middle of the pack of Caps forwards last season who appeared in 25 or more game, ranking tied for sixth of 15 forwards.

Cheerless’ Take…

His shooting percentages on a year-to-year basis have been all over the rink.  In his six full seasons in the NHL; 14.4, 11.8, 9.4, 9.2, 17.1, and 8.3 last year.  And it was not as if his presence on the ice led to greater success for the Ottawa Senators last season.  The Senators were a rebuilding team and expected to struggle, but they were 10-17-4 in 31 games in which he skated at least 20 minutes, 15-17-1 in 33 games in which skated less than 20 minutes.  Ottawa was not particularly successful when Brown was offensively engaged, at least by one measure.  They were 6-13-0 when he recorded at least three shots on goal; they were 3-5-2 in ten games in which he recorded no shots on goal.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2022-2023

• 500 career games played (he has 444)
• 100 career goals (90)
• 100 career penalty minutes (90)

The Big Question…  Can Connor Brown hold the fort and fill Tom Wilson’s role, at least in terms of offensive production, until Wilson returns?

It is unlikely that Tom Wilson will return to the Caps’ lineup after knee surgery and rehabilitation until December.  That would mean he would miss the first 30 or so games.  Connor Brown, also a right winger, would be expected to slide into Wilson’s roster spot, but he does so as a very different kind of player.  He is not nearly the physical player Wilson is.  For example, he has 184 career credited hits; Wilson has eight seasons with more.  Brown has 90 career penalty minutes; Wilson has never had fewer than 93 minutes in any of his nine seasons. 

Two areas in which Brown might be a suitable fill-in for Wilson are in offensive production and in penalty killing.  In Brown’s six full NHL seasons, he is 89-121-210 and 19 power play goals in 437 games, averaging 16:59 in ice time per game.  Wilson is 101-122-221 and 15 power play goals in 416 games, averaging 16:38 in ice time per game.  There is also penalty killing.  Brown averaged 2:42 in shorthanded ice time per game over his six full seasons in the NHL to date, while Wilson averaged 1:53 per game.  Brown will not bring an air of menace to the ice, but he can be productive in the areas the Caps will need replacement-level numbers in Wilson’s absence.

In the end…

Connor Brown’s career to date, since the day he was drafted, seems to be one long exercise in making the scouts who evaluated him for draft purposes look silly.  He has vastly outperformed his draft position, and none of the 55 players taken after him in the 2012 draft have played in more games.  His 90 goals is a large chunk of the total number of goals scored by all players taken after him who have played in the NHL (120 goals among 21 players).  His 216 points are almost 100 points more than the next player’s total among those taken after him (Vinnie Hinostroza with 137).  He also has the incentive of this being the last year of his current contract ($3.6 million cap hit).  If he is this player with the Caps, and properly incentivized, the team might be able to survive, perhaps even thrive, until Tom Wilson returns and could be a very formidable team when Wilson and Brown are on the ice together.  And that would be quite a bit of magic that Caps fans, not to mention their new addition, would welcome.

Projection: 76 games, 18-22-40, plus-4