"The key to growth is the introduction of higher dimensions
of consciousness into our awareness."
-- Lao Tzu
In his first three full seasons in the NHL, ending with the
2012-2013 season, John Carlson logged a total of 405:52 in power play ice
time. In the 2013-2014 season Carlson
finished with 257:56 in man advantage ice time, 20th in the league
among defensemen in total minutes and 27th in power play ice time
per game (3:08).
At the ripe age of 24, Carlson is now the Washington
Capitals’ answer to the two-way, all-situations defenseman. And with it came a certain maturity and
stability in his game. As to the latter,
consider that at 5-on-5 he played more than ten times as many minutes (952:35,
72 percent of his total 5-on-5 ice time) with Karl Alzner as he did with his
second most frequent partner, Dmitry Orlov (93:09).
Looking at his ten-game segments, Carlson was fairly
consistent in his production with a late push in points, most of that coming in
power play distribution (14 assists in his last three segments), a product of
his taking over the lion’s share of the responsibilities manning the point on
the man advantage.
Fearless’ Take… Carlson has come a long way in a short
time. If you look at the defenseman
cohort of the 2008 entry draft, Carlson’ career numbers are:
6th in total games played (316; Drew Doughty
leads with 442)
6th in goals scored (33/Eric Karlsson: 63)
4th in assists (101/Karlsson: 174)
5th in points (134/Karlsson: 237)
4th in plus/minus (plus-25/Alex Pietrangelo:
plus-45)
It is worth noting that in every instance in each of those
measures above that the defensemen ranking higher than Carlson were drafted
before he was (27th overall) with the exception of San Jose’s Jason
Demers (selected 186th overall), who outranked Carlson in career
plus/minus (plus-26 to plus-25).
This season Carlson finished with the team lead in goals (10)
and was second in assists (27 to Mike Green’s 29) and points (37 to Green’s
38). His power play goals (5), assists
(17), and points (22) led all Caps defensemen, as did his time on ice
(24:30/game). He is one of only four
defensemen in teh league (Keith Yandle, Matt Carle, and teammate Karl Alzner being the
others) to have played in all 294 games over the past four seasons. He is second only to Yandle among those four
in total minutes played.
Cheerless’ Take… OK, I’m gonna go all “fancystats” on
ya. Let’s start with Corsi. Two years ago, Carlson had a Corsi-for
percentage at 5-on-5 of 47.8. Last year:
49.1. This year?... 46.9, and that was
with the best ratio of offensive zone starts in any of the three years (49.5
percent of his offensive plus defensive zone starts). Not just that, but in 5-on-5 close score
situations his Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages have dropped in each of
the last two seasons, from 49.6 Corsi-for percent in 2011-2012 to 45.6 percent
this season and a Fenwick-for percent of 51.4 om 2011-2012 to 46.3 percent this
season. And the quality of forwards he
faced is just a little bit better (30.0 percent average total team percent of
5-on-5 on-ice opponents) than it was in 2011-2012 (29.4 percent). You might say that’s on his coach. Maybe.
Maybe not. Well…maybe.
Odd Carlson Fact… John Carlson skated more than 30 minutes
in five games in 2013-2014. The Caps
were 4-0-1 in those games. He had points
in four of them (0-5-5 overall). He was
even or better in all of them (plus-3 overall), despite a Corsi-for percentage
at 5-on-5 of 43.8. Here might be the oddest fact of all, or the
reason he skated more than 30 minutes in the first place. Every game went to the Gimmick.
Game to Remember… November 15th at Detroit. The Capitals were on a strange roll. Going into their 20th game of the
season in Detroit, Washington had participated in three extra-time games in
their previous four contests, four of their last six over a span of ten
days. When they took the ice against the
Red Wings on November 15th they were thinner than usual on
defense. Mike Green was out, which was
going to place a larger burden on John Carlson to pick up the available ice
time, especially on the power play. It
would not be the power play on which Carlson would make his mark in this game;
it would come in the third period.
Through 40 minutes Carlson already logged 17:25 in ice time,
about on his season pace. But in the
third period, after he was on ice for a goal by Alex Ovechkin that got the Caps
to within a goal at 3-2, it was his shot to the Detroit net that pinballed at
the top of the crease and onto the stick of Michael Latta, who backhanded the
puck in for his first NHL goal to tie the game.
What might have been more amazing was what Carlson did in
overtime. Neither team would score in
the extra session, but Carlson skated 4:19 of the five minutes, all of it
coming on two shifts, including the last 3:49 of the overtime. Carlson finished with 32:26 in total ice time
(his second highest of the season), 6:43 of it on the power play to lead the
team. He also had 5:51 in shorthanded
ice time, tied with partner Karl Alzner for the team lead. Carlson finished with an assist and a plus-2
in what would be a 4-3 Gimmick win for the Caps at Joe Louis Arena.
Game to Forget… December 17th at
Philadelphia. It started well enough for
the Caps at Wells Fargo Center when Alex Ovechkin scored a power play goal just
40 seconds into the second period of their contest with the Flyers. Less than a minute later, though, the Flyers
drew even, and John Carlson got a pretty good look at it. As he was marking the Flyers Michael Raffl at
the Flyers’ blue line, Brayden Coburn was skating the puck from around the back
of the Flyers’ net. As he was sending the
puck up to Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux cut through the middle and behind
Carlson to create a 2-on-1 with only Karl Alzner back. Voracek called his own number and wristed the
puck past goalie Braden Holtby to tie the game.
Eric Fehr restored the Caps’ one-goal advantage four minutes
later, but Philadelphia tied the game in the 12th minute of the
period, Carlson once more getting a good look, this time on the power
play. A shot by Nicklas Grossman was knocked
down by Steve Downie in front of Holtby.
Alzner stepped up on Downieto block his shot attempt. Nicklas Backstrom had Brayden Schenn covered
at the top of the crease, but the puck squirted over to Matt Read with Carlson
a step tooo far away to engage him. Read batted the puck in to tie the
game.
Things just got worse after that for the Caps and for
Carlson. It started with a major penalty
to Tom Wilson for running Brayden Schenn into the boards. The Flyers took the lead on the ensuing power
play when Mark Streit scored. The Flyers
got an insurance goal on the power play barely a minute after that when Voracek
got his second goal of the game. Carlson
did what he could, tying up Scott Hartnell’s stick, but it was another minus on
his ledger, making him a minus-3 (his worst of the season) in a 5-2 loss to the
Flyers.
In the end…
Although Mike Green’s numbers, on a per-game basis, remained
superior to Carlson’s over the entirety of the 2013-2014 season, one got the
feeling that by the time April rolled around Carlson was the go-to guy in every
situation – even strength, penalty killing, and even on the power play, where
Green ruled for several seasons. Still,
it remains somewhat unclear whether Carlson (and his frequent partner Karl
Alzner, for that matter) is a top-pair defenseman just yet on a bona fide Stanley Cup
contender. He certainly was – and is –
on this Capitals team, but that might be a statement about the depth and talent of
the defense overall.
This is not to diminish Carlson’s performance this season or
his influence on the team’s fortunes. He
is, after all, still just 24 years old and is on the upgrade of his career
arc. This season, for example, it just
seemed by observation that he had far fewer brain cramps and mental lapses that
seemed to infect his game in, say, the 2011-2012 season. That speaks to the maturity aspect of which
we spoke above.
As much as we have called into question the record of this
franchise in bringing amateur talent to the big club (and keeping them there),
we think an argument can be made that John Carlson is among the best draft picks
this administration has made when you consider a number of factors. He was not a lottery pick (not “top-five,”
like Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, or Karl Alzner), he was the product of a
draft pick obtained in trade (June 20, 2008, the Caps obtained the 27th
pick in the draft from Philadelphia that was used to select Carlson for Steve
Eminger and the 84th pick in the 2008 draft), his selection filled
precisely the hole left by the underachieving Eminger (a 12th
overall pick in 2002), and he has had performance numbers that are at least
competitive with his draft cohort and in many instances superior. This was a pick that the Caps had to work for
to get, to identify, and to manage well in terms of his developmental progress, and it was a pick that repaired a problem that occurred with a previous pick.
There is room for improvement with Carlson, as would be the
case for just about any player who toiled in every game for an underachieving
team in 2013-2014. But what we said last year at this time for Carlson echoes:
“For Carlson’s own game, it is now a matter of growth, to become the reliable, consistent two-way defenseman fans saw in the making when he came into the league.”
He is making that growth, and the 2013-2014 season
demonstrated it.
Grade: B
photo: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America
