The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
Well, Game 1 of the California Experience did not go well
for the Washington Capitals, losers of a 4-0 decision on Tuesday night to the
Anaheim Ducks, their first shutout loss in Anaheim since they lost a 3-0
decision on December 11, 2002, a game noteworthy because two future head
coaches in the NHL dressed for the Ducks that evening – Dan Bylsma (Pittsburgh,
Buffalo) and Adam Oates (Washington). The Caps would follow up that 2002 loss
with a win in Arizona against the Phoenix Coyotes.
The Caps hope to duplicate that pattern of following up a
shutout loss with a win when they visit the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday
night. As rough as the Caps record has been of late (10-9-4 in their last 23
games), they have not lost consecutive games in regulation on the same road
trip since Games 19 and 20 back in mid-November, when they dropped decisions to
the Nashville Predators (6-3) and Colorado Avalanche (6-2).
Meanwhile, the Kings can’t figure out if they are hot or
cold. They had a six-game losing streak in early January (0-6-0) followed by a
6-1-1 run. Then they lost three in a row (0-3-0). Then they won three in a
row…two losses…three wins. That they lost to the Chicago Blackhawks in their
last outing, a 5-3 margin at home, might be viewed as an encouraging sign by
Caps fans.
And frankly, the Kings are not an especially successful team
on home ice. Their 16-15-3 record at STAPLES Center ranks 23rd in the league
through Tuesday’s games. It might be worth noting that while the Kings cling to
the last playoff spot in the Western Conference, they are the only team among
the league’s bottom ten clubs in home points earned that is playoff eligible in
either conference as of Wednesday morning.
The Kings are a club that can defend their ice well, having
allowed the second fewest goals on home ice this season (76; Minnesota: 75).
What they can’t seem to do is score. They have 89 goals scored on home ice this
season, one of seven teams with fewer than 90 goals scored on home ice (only
Columbus, among the six teams with fewer home ice goals, is eligible for the
playoffs as of Wednesday morning).
Los Angeles’ difficulties scoring at home are a bit
baffling, given that the team is in the middle of the pack in scoring offense
over all (2.88 goals per game/16th in the league). It is a group led by Anze
Kopitar, who has rebounded nicely from a difficult season last year in which he
finished with a career low of 12 goals (not including the abbreviated 2012-2013
season in which he had 10 goals). In fact, he is on a pace to hit, if not
exceed his career best of 34 goals in 2009-2010. Kopitar is that superstar who
few recognize as a “superstar.” But there he is, near the top of every
statistical category in Kings’ history: games (906/5th), goals (282/5th),
assists (525/5th), points (807/5th), power play goals (85/6th), shorthanded
goals (10/tied for 5th), game-winning goals (44/4th), plus-minus
(plus-86/….yes, 5th). And consistency has been the word to describe his
production since the calendar turned over to 2018. In 27 games since New
Year’s, Kopitar has not gone consecutive games without a point, and he is
10-21-31, plus-4, in 27 games, averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time a
game. In 15 career games against the Caps, he is 9-5-14, plus-4.
Another King having a rebound year is Tyler Toffoli. After
finishing the 2016-2017 season with just 16 goals in 63 games (he missed 19
games to a lower body injury), he is second on the club this season with 21
goals in 66 games. A pleasant response, from a Kings perspective, for having
signed a three-year contract extension last June. He has been a surprisingly,
perhaps, prolific goal scorer who, in just his sixth season with the team, has
a chance to jump into the top-20 all-time in goal scoring. He would need nine
goals in his last 16 games to tie Tom Williams for 20th place on the Kings’
all-time goal scoring list. That he could do that, however, seems unlikely
given his recent performance. He has only three goals in his last 24 games,
although two of those have come in his last five contests. Toffoli is 1-4-5,
minus-1, in nine career games against Washington.
Since he took over the majority of the workload in goal for
the Kings in 2008-2009, only three goalies have appeared in more games and
logged more minutes than Jonathan Quick (540/31,544) – Henrik Lundqvist
(603/35,209), Pekka Rine (554/32,242), and Marc-Andre Fleury (552/32,089). Of
the 70 goalies in team history, Quick stands alone at the top in games played,
minutes, wins (285), save percentage (.916, minimum: 50 games), and shutouts
(47). Only Peter Budaj has a better goals against average (2.15 in 54 games)
than Quick (2.28). And, there are the two Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe Trophy
as playoff MVP to add. His save percentage to date (.921) is among his career-best,
topped only by the .929 he had in 2011-2012. His goals against average is good,
if not spectacular (2.47), owing to the 31.2 shots per 60 minutes he has faced
so far this season (his career average is 25.0 shots per 60 minutes).
Embedded in this year’s performance is an uncommon streakiness that divides Quick's season into three pieces. In his first dozen games, Quick was 9-2-1, 2.06, .937, with two shutouts. He followed that up by losing six straight decisions, then winning six straight decisions. Since then, he is 10-16-1, 2.74, .912, with one shutout in 27 games, and he has not won more than two straight games in that span. Quick is 8-2-0, 2.36, .916 in 10 career appearances against the Capitals.
Embedded in this year’s performance is an uncommon streakiness that divides Quick's season into three pieces. In his first dozen games, Quick was 9-2-1, 2.06, .937, with two shutouts. He followed that up by losing six straight decisions, then winning six straight decisions. Since then, he is 10-16-1, 2.74, .912, with one shutout in 27 games, and he has not won more than two straight games in that span. Quick is 8-2-0, 2.36, .916 in 10 career appearances against the Capitals.
1. Only the Edmonton
Oilers have had fewer power play chances on home ice (90) than Los Angeles
(91). Maybe a good thing for the Caps; the Kings rank tenth in home power play
efficiency (24.2 percent).
2. Los Angeles has
the second best penalty kill in the league overall (83.4 percent), but it ranks
only seventh on home ice (84.8 percent).
3. No team has
allowed fewer shorthanded goals this season than the Kings. Their two
shorthanded goals allowed is tied for fewest with San Jose and Pittsburgh.
4. Think of the
Kings’ offense like an old diesel engine. It takes a while to warm up (40 first
period goals, 29th in the league), but once it does (82 third period
goals/first in the league).
5. Los Angeles might
be just as happy for this game to go to overtime. The Kings have won nine of 14
extra time games this season, including both of their trick shot competitions.
They have not lost an extra time in the 2018 portion of the season (2-0-0, last
loss a 3-2 overtime loss to Vegas on December 28th).
2. Only Toronto and
Winnipeg have more wins when leading after one period (23 apiece) than do the
Caps (22). And, the Caps remain one of just three teams not to lose a game in
regulation when leading after one period (St. Louis and Vancouver are the
others). Theirs is the top winning percentage in the league in such games
(.957).
3. The frustration
continues. The Caps are just 2-for-31 on power plays on the road against
Western Conference teams this season (6.5 percent). The last one was November
16th in Colorado against the Avalanche. Fat lot of good it did them; the Caps
lost, 6-2.
4. Tom Wilson is
closing on an odd milestone of sorts. If he records four shots on goal in this
game, he will hit 100 shots on goal in a season for the first time in his
career.He had 99 in 2015-2016.
5. No forward in the
league averages more ice time per shift than Alex Ovechkin (0:57). Evgeny
Kuznetsov is second among forwards (0:55).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Los Angeles: Dustin Brown
There might not be a player in the league who has skated
harder minutes for more games than Dustin Brown. Now in his 14th season, all
with Los Angeles, Brown has appeared in 1,029 games, more than any player in
Kings’ history except Luc Robitaille (1,077) and Dave Taylor (1,111). He has
been a gritty sort who has exhibited a remarkable durability. Since the 2005-2006
season, Brown has not missed more than four games in any season. Over that same
span he established himself as a reliable secondary contributor, averaging a
shade under 20 goals per season. Although that production dipped in recent
seasons (51 goals over four years coming into this season), he has 19 goals in
65 games so far, his highest goal total since he had 22 in 2011-2012. He is
also a plus-24, a career best for Brown. Over his last 19 games his goal
scoring has been unremarkable (four), but he has nine assists, significant
contributions in the Kings’ 12-7-0 record in that span. Brown is 2-7-9, even,
in 17 career games against the Caps.
Washington: Andre Burakovsky
Here we go again. Just when you think Andre Burakovsky might
be shaking off whatever it is holding him down, he slumps under the weight
again. After one goal in his first 14 games this season, he had a pair against
the Dallas Starts, and folks might have thought, “here we go.” Well, there he
went…nine games after that without a goal. He had goals in consecutive games at
Winnipeg and At Minnesota last month, only to go his next three without one
before another set of consecutive games with goals against Florida and Buffalo.
Since then, Burakovsky is four games without a goal and counting. If there is a
silver lining with respect to the game at hand, it is that he has scored six of
his eight goals on the road this season. Three of his eight goals have come
against Western Conference teams (Dallas, his only two-goal performance, Winnipeg,
and Minnesota). It certainly would be good to get him on a more productive path
since the Caps are 8-2-2 in the 12 games in which he has a point this season.
In four career games against Los Angeles, Burakovsky is 1-1-2, plus-4.
In the end…
The Caps have a game in hand to go with their one-point lead
over Pittsburgh, and they have a two-point lead over Philadelphia with both
teams having played 66 games. That’s hardly a cushion, especially since the Penguins and Flyers face one another on Wednesday night. Flat crust pizzas are
thicker. Worse, there are eight teams with better records in their last ten
games in the Eastern Conference than the Caps’ 5-5-0 record. Even Buffalo has a
better record (5-4-1). These games with Los Angeles and San Jose to close the
California trip, and a meeting with the Winnipeg Jets when they return home,
make up a difficult part of the schedule for the Caps. But in it lies an
opportunity, too. It is a chance to measure themselves against playoff-quality
opponents, and after this stretch the schedule starts to open up a bit in terms
of competitive strength. Winning such games can provide the Caps with the
momentum they need to wrap up the season on a high note. But California being
what it is to this team, it sure won’t be easy.
Capitals 3 – Kings 2
