“…you have an all-out prize fight, you wait until the fight
is over, one guy is left standing. And that's how you know who won.”
-- Al Capone in "The Untouchables"
-- Al Capone in "The Untouchables"
In the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, nine goalies were selected
ahead of Braden Holtby, who was picked 93rd overall by the
Washington Capitals. At the time, there were no
fewer than five goalies were ahead of Holtby on the Capitals’ depth chart –
Jose Theodore, Brent Johnson, Semyon Varlamov, Michal Neuvirth, and Daren
Machesney.
Five years later, Theodore, Johnson, Varlamov, and Machesney
have moved on, and Holtby is at the top of the heap, having come out on top in
his mano-a-mano competition with Michal Neuvirth over the past two seasons. In 2013 Holtby was the number one goalie from
start to finish for the first time in his third season with the big club. Not that it came with a sense of certainty
attached to it. In parts of the previous
two seasons Holtby appeared in only 21 regular season games. Despite some sparkling numbers – 14-4-3,
2.02, .929, with three shutouts in those 21 appearances – it took his
post-season performance in 2012 (1.95 GAA/.935 save percentage in 14 games) to lift
him into the lead in the goalie competition going into 2013.
The Great Lockout of 2012-2013 left Holtby plying his trade
in Hershey with the AHL Bears, where he had an iffy 12-12-1 record, but with a
2.14 goals against average and a .932 save percentage. Both the GAA and save percentage would have
ranked him fourth in the AHL had he qualified in the end-of-season rankings.
When the NHL season got underway in January, the jump to
stiffer competition did not agree with Holtby.
He appeared in the Caps’ first two games but allowed ten goals on 73
shots (.863 save percentage). It earned
him a seat for five games and put his position as number one goalie in
jeopardy. Michal Neuvrith had struggles
of his own, not reaching the .900 level in save percentage in any of those five
games. Holtby returned in Game 8 of the
season but continued to struggle into his second ten-game segment of the season.
However, starting with a 38-save effort in a 2-1 loss to the
New York Rangers on February 17th, Holtby’s season began to turn
around. His ten-game splits improved
significantly over his first ten-game split.
Over his last four splits he did not record a save percentage lower than
.916, and he dropped his goals against average from 4.52 in his first ten-game
split to 2.58 by season’s end. In those
last four splits Holtby was 22-9-1, 2.34, .927 with four shutouts. Holtby was clearly the
number one goalie in Washington.
Odd Holtby Statistic… Braden Holtby was 1-4-1, 4.37, .864
against teams from Pennsylvania, the Penguins and Flyers. He was 22-8-0, 2.28, .929 with four shutouts
against everyone else.
Game to Remember… March 21/22 at Winnipeg. When the Caps headed to Winnipeg for a
back-to-back set of games in Manitoba – a scheduling quirk as a result of the
lockout – they had just come off one of their best games of the season but had nothing to show for it. They fought the Pittsburgh Penguins to a draw
over 50 minutes, holding the mighty Penguins to a single goal. Then, just after a Caps power play expired, Matt
Niskanen took a feed from Matt Cooke and wristed a puck that just cleared a
sliding Karl Alzner and eluded Braden Holtby’s glove for the game-winner in 2-1
loss. The Caps were still buried in the standings,
14th in the East and nine points behind the Winnipeg Jets, who they
would visit for this back-to-back.
Getting swept in Winnipeg probably would have ended the
competitive portion of the season for the Caps, since they would have been 13
points behind the Jets with 27 games to play.
But that was not what happened.
The Caps swept the Jets, due in large part to Holtby holding the home
team to one goal on 51 shots over the two games, the lone Jets goal coming in
the third period after the Caps had built a 5-1 lead in Game 2 of the set. His shutout in Game 1 of the set was his
second straight over the Jets in 2013.
Game to Forget… February 3rd vs. Pittsburgh. If the March 19th game against the
Penguins was one of the best the Caps played to that point in the 2013 season,
it was due in part to the game against the Penguins on February 3rd
being among the worst. Holtby was
particulary tormented by Chris Kunitz.
First it was a tip in off a point shot less than four minutes into the
game. Then it was a snap shot from the
top of the left wing circle to give the Penguins a 4-2 lead. Six minutes later, with the Pens on a power
play and Karl Alzner without a stick – making it effectively a 5-on-3 – it was
one-timer from the bottom of the left wing circle. Finally, it was a one-timer from the slot
that beat Holtby on the last shot he faced on the day for Kunitz’ fourth goal
of the game. Holtby allowed six goals on
26 shots in the 6-3 loss.
Post Season… It would have been hard for Braden Holtby to
improve on his numbers from the 2012 playoffs (1.95, .935). Only five times in 14 games in 2012 did he
allow more than two goals. He was not
far off, though, in 2013 (2.22, .922). Here
is the thing, though. Until Game 7 he
was better than last season, a 1.77 goals against average and a .938 save
percentage. Then there was Game 7. It was a classic case of a team – the Caps –
dominating the game early, but unable to capitalize on Holtby’s opposite
number, Henrik Lundqvist. When the
momentum changed, the Rangers capitalized – often. New York scored five goals over a span of
33:20 from 13:19 of the first period (on a goal from an unlikely source: Arron
Asham) to 6:39 of the third (again from an unlikely source: Mats
Zuccarello). Holtby and the Caps picked
the wrong time to suffer a team-wide collapse.
In the end…
Let’s compare a couple of goaltenders and their first three regular
season in the league:
Goalie A: 57 games, 37-16-4, 2.39, .923, 7 shutouts
Goalie B: 59 games, 30-13-12, 2.39, .917, 4 shutouts
Not much separating them, is there? Now, let’s look at the same two goalies in
the post season over those three years:
Goalie A: 21 games, 10-11, 2.04, .931, 1 shutout
Goalie B: 19 games, 10-9, 2.49, .915, 2 shutouts
Goalie A has better numbers overall (not that the win-loss
record reflects it) and is more consistent (Goalie B has those two shutouts in
19 games, but almost a half-goal higher GAA).
Who are they?
Goalie A is Braden Holtby, Goalie B is Semyon Varlamov in
his first three seasons in the league, all with Washington. Varlamov was sent to Colorado after that
third season, in no small part due to stories that if he was not the Caps’
number one goalie, he would consider going to Europe to play. Holtby, on the other hand, is something of
the “last man standing,” having climbed up the depth chart until he stands now
as the Caps’ number one goalie. At the
moment, there is no question who won.
Grade: B
Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America
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