The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
Less than 24 hours after hosting the Montreal Canadiens, the
Washington Capitals take to the road to face the Toronto Maple Leafs at Air
Canada Centre. They take their hockey
seriously up there. How do we know
this? Here was the lead story on the Web
site of the Toronto Sun on Friday evening…
Then there is the sports cover at the Toronto Star site…
Well, maybe it’s just a Grabovski thing. No hard feelings and all.
As for the Leafs, they come into this game in something of a
holding pattern as far as wins and losses go.
Toronto is 3-4-1 in November, all of their wins coming on home ice
(3-1-0 overall at home this month).
Those four games are interesting for their variety. They had everything a Leafs fan might
want.
Want a tight checking game?
There was the 2-1 trick shot win over New Jersey. Want a laugher? There was the three-goal eruption against the
Islanders in the third period for a 5-2 win.
Want a wake-up call? There was
the 3-0 lead the Leafs took into the third period against Buffalo before almost
blowing it, finally getting a late goal for a 4-2 win. And, it you want to have something to
complain about (because really, that’s what we sports fans do best), there was
the 4-2 loss to Nashville on Thursday.
In those four home games the Leafs managed a dozen goals,
three of them by Phil Kessel, almost doubling his home goal total from four to
seven (tied for eighth in the league in home goals). Mason Raymond (2-2-4) and Trevor
Smith (1-3-4) lead Toronto in home points in four November home games.
At the other end, Jonathan Bernier got the call in three of
the four home games for Toronto this month, and he has delivered for the most
part. He is 2-1-0 in those three
appearances, with 93 saves on an even 100 shots faced. He does have, however, those four goals on 28
shots against Nashville in his last appearance at Air Canada Centre. James Reimer has but one appearance this
month on home ice, a 33-save effort in a 4-2 win over Buffalo.
Here is how the teams break down, numbers-wise…
1. So…about that
whole “possession” thing. Toronto is 29th
among 30 NHL teams in Fenwick-For percent in 5-on-5 close situations (source:
extraskater.com).
Ditto on Corsi-For percentage.
2. So… about that PDO
thing. Toronto is fourth in PDO in
5-on-5 close situations. Bad possession
numbers, big PDO. How long is that going
to last?
3. Maybe it’s a time
thing. Toronto doesn’t spend much time
in 5-on-5 close situations. Only seven
teams have spent less time in that situation than the Leafs through Thursday’s
games.
4. One thing that
might be an underrated part of Toronto’s success so far – five of the seven
defensemen to have dressed this season have done so for every game. Compare that to the forwards, only two of
whom have dressed for all 22 games and which have seen 21 different players
take the ice in those 22 games.
5. Phil Kessel is
number “81,” and he has 81 shots on goal this season. Yeah, that’s interesting.
1. Alex Ovechkin
leads the league in power play goals (eight).
He is second in the league in even-strength goals (11). He has one even strength assist for the
season. For the record, it came on
October 24th in the third period against Edmonton in a 4-1 win. He recorded the secondary assist on a goal by
Nicklas Backstrom.
2. The Caps have 32
second period goals this season. Their
combined total in the first period (15) and the third period (18) is 33.
3. From the “if I
told you, would you believe” file, that Jason Chimera has more even-strength
assists (eight) than Nicklas Backstrom (seven)?
Backstrom is still sixth in the league in assists per game overall
(0.83), nestled right between Evgeni Malkin (0.87) and Sidney Crosby (0.78).
4. Joel Ward leads
the league in shooting percentage (25.0 percent). Part of it is that Ward is tied for 244th
in shots on goal per game. Small sample,
irregular results.
5. The Caps have an
unremarkable scoring defense (2.83 goals per game, 19th in the
league), but they have only one player in the top-50 for most goals scored
against, on ice. John Carlson is tied
for having the 39th most goals scored against while on ice (25). You would think the Caps would have a lot of
players ranking high in the list of players on ice for goals against. They do have six, but there are six teams
with more such players, including the Chicago Blackhawks (seven).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Toronto: James van
Riemsdyk
When he was drafted second overall by the Philadelphia
Flyers in 2007, folks though James van Riemsdyk was the next Flyer power
forward in waiting. In three seasons in
south Philadelphia, though, he never seemed to have a breakthrough. He gave glimpses and teased along the way,
but never seemed to put it all together with the Flyers. After the 2011-2012 season Philadelphia must
have thought it was not it was not going to come together and traded van
Riemsdyk to Toronto for defenseman Luke Schenn.
It seems to have awakened that power forward that was lurking inside van
Riemsdyk. In 68 games with Toronto he
has 27 goals, almost as many as he had in his final two seasons in Philadelphia
(32 in 118 games). He has hit a bit of a
dry spell lately with only two goals – both in a 4-2 win over Buffalo – in his
last eight games. He is 4-4-8, plus-2, in 12 career games against the Caps.
Washington: Mike Green
Capital defensemen have taken 217 shots on goal this season
and have seven goals to show for it.
That is a 3.2 percent shooting percentage. Take John Carlson and his five goals on 57
shots (8.8 percent) out of the mix, and it is 2-for-160 – 1.25 percent. The biggest contributor to that lack of
shooting efficiency is Mike Green, who has yet to light the lamp on 52 shots on
goal. That is the most shots on goal
without success in the league. Next in
line is Minnesota’s Ryan Suter, who is 0-for-44. Green is not lacking for opportunities taken;
he is 11th among defensemen in shots on goal, despite having missed
three games. If the Caps are going to
have any consistency in their results, Green is going to have to breakthrough.
Keys:
1. Short memory. The Caps cannot afford to dwell on a home
stand that started well (win over St. Louis) and ended poorly (two
losses). Having a game on the night
following a loss should help, but the trick is stopping bad streaks before they
become streaks in the first place, and that means getting off to faster starts
(or at least keeping opponents from doing the same) in the opening 20 minutes.
2. Short bursts. Opponents doing damage in short bursts killed
the Caps in their two losses this week.
Pittsburgh scored two goals barely five minutes apart to get first
period separation against the Caps in the form of a 2-0 lead, and Montreal
scored three in less than five minutes to put the Caps in a deep hole in the
first period, 3-0.
3. Grab the
ring. When Mikhail Grabovski records a
point, the Caps are 8-5-0. When he does
not, they are 4-5-1. This is the
importance of secondary scoring. Alex
Ovechkin is going to get his, but the third, or second, or whatever line you
want to call it – Grabovski, Jason Chimera, and Joel Ward – need to do what
they’ve been doing. Grabovski will have
incentive, and he will be the object of attention, given his history in
Toronto. He and his running mates had a quiet night against Montreal last night
– one point (an assist by Grabovski), three shots on goal, five shot
attempts. If he – and they – can make
more noise tonight, the Caps should be successful.
In the end…
The Caps have had a difficult time getting good footing in
advancing through their schedule. Over
their last 16 games they are 10-7-1, but how they got there is not especially
comforting – three wins, two losses, four wins, two losses, three wins, two
losses. The good news is that the Caps
have not lost three in a row since dropping games to Dallas, Carolina, and
Colorado over the week of October 5-12.
If the Caps lose in regulation, and New Jersey wins in San Jose later in the evening,
the Caps would fall out of second place in the Metropolitan Division after they
occupied the top spot following their win over St. Louis to open the week. Let’s not let that happen…
Capitals 4 – Maple Leafs 3
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