The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals try to break their two-game losing
streak as they head to the desert and their second meeting this season against
the Arizona Coyotes. These teams last
met on November 2nd with the Coyotes spotting the Caps a 3-1 lead before
storming back with five unanswered goals on their way to a 6-5 win at Verizon
Center.
Since then, both teams are on something of a meandering
course. The Caps are 3-2-1 since
dropping that decision to the Coyotes.
They have been outscored by a 16-15 margin, but they are 2-1-1 in
one-goal decisions. Special teams have
been a mixed bag, the power play going 3-16 (18.8 percent) in those six games
but without a goal in their last two games and without so much as a power play
opportunity in their most recent contest, a 4-1 loss to the St. Louis Blues to
open this road trip.
The penalty kill has been another matter. While it has struggled for much of the year
(78.6 percent through the first Arizona game), it is 13-for-15 in its last six
contests (86.7 percent) and perfect in its last three games (9-for-9).
The Caps are led in goal-scoring, perhaps improbably so,
over their last six games, by Marcus Johansson with four. Johansson also is tied for the team lead in
points over that span (five) with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, each
with a 2-3-5 scoring line. They have
spread the help around with five players each recording three assists.
The Caps’ goaltending is hard to get handle on. Braden Holtby has appeared in four games
since these clubs last met. He is 2-1-1,
2.23, .923. He has been very good in his
last three games, sporting a save percentage of .947. There was that nasty giveaway, though, that
led to the only goal in a 1-0 loss to New Jersey in his last appearance. As for Justin Peters, he is just flat out
struggling. In two appearances since
Arizona and the Caps met, a game in which he was the victim of the Coyotes' six-goal outburst, he is 1-1-0, 3.37, .885. It is part of a rough stretch he has been in since
an impressive 20-save effort in a 2-1 Gimmick win over Florida on October 18th. In four appearances since then he is 1-3-0,
3.98, .871. He allowed six goals on 30
shots in the loss to Arizona on November 2nd.
Meanwhile, the Coyotes are grinding along with a 4-3-0
record since their November 2nd meeting with the Caps. Martin Hanzal and Shane Doan each have three
of the 18 goals scored by the Coyotes over that seven-game span, all of Hanzal’s
coming on a hat trick scored against Vanouver last Friday in a 5-0 win over the
Canucks. Hanzal and Vermette share the
scoring lead in this stretch with five points apiece. It is part of what has the look of a balanced
offense. In their 4-3-0 run the Coyotes
have 18 different skaters with points, 11 different players with goals.
The special teams for the Coyotes have been anything but,
recently. Over their last seven games
Arizona is just 3-for-27 on the power play (11.1 percent) and just 21-for-26 (80.8
percent) on the penalty kill, bringing their special teams index over that
period to a disappointing 91.9. Oddly
enough, while the recent power play performance is substantially worse than the
season as a whole (20.0 percent), the recent penalty killing is actually an
improvement (77.0 percent for the season).
Here is how the numbers compare for the two teams:
1. Arizona has
received decent scoring support from the blue line in their 4-3-0 run. Six defensemen have points, and as a group
they are 3-10-13.
2. The Coyotes
balance their skaters in terms of ice time, at least among the forwards. No forward averages as much as 20 minutes per
game, and only one (B.J. Crombeen) averages less than ten minutes a game. The defensemen are another story. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (26:15) and Keith Yandle
(25:10) both average more than 25 minutes a game. Only Nashville (Shea Weber and Roman Josi)
and Dallas (Alex Goligoski and Trevor Daley) have as many as two defensemen
averaging more than 25 minutes a game.
3. Arizona has as
many power play goals (14) as do the Capitals.
The difference is that they have theirs on 70 opportunities, while the
Caps have theirs on 54 opportunities.
4. Since playing the
Caps on November 2nd, the Coyotes have five one-goal decisions in their seven
contests. They are 3-2-0 in those games,
one of those wins settled in the trick shot competition (against Anaheim on
November 7th, 3-2).
5. Arizona and St.
Louis are the only teams left in the league with “perfect” records when leading
or trailing after the second intermission.
When leading, the Coyotes are a perfect 4-0-0 (St. Louis is 8-0-0), and
when trailing, they are a perfect 0-6-0 (St. Louis is 0-2-0).
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1. November is “one-goal
month” for the Capitals. Six of their
eight decisions have been by one goal. Their record in such contests is 2-3-1,
including the 6-5 loss to Arizona on November 2nd.
2. The Caps have 14
power play opportunities in seven road games.
Their 2.0 opportunities per road game is fewest in the league, and it’s not
close. Florida has the next fewest at
2.75 road power plays per game. The Caps
have spent only 17:16 in total power play time on the road in seven games. Pity they don’t get more opportunities, since
they are the best road power play team in the league (35.7 percent on
5-for-14).
3. Only four teams
have more wins when leading after two periods than Washington (7 wins):
Pittsburgh (11), Tampa Bay (9), St. Louis (8), and Montreal (8).
4. Washington has
been reasonably well-behaved in the context of the rule book. Only seven teams have fewer minor penalties
taken than the 67 charged to the Caps.
5. How big is the “big
pair” in the early going? When Nicklas
Backstrom scores at least one point, the Caps are 5-3-2; they are 2-4-1 when he
does not. When Alex Ovechkin scored at
least one point, the Caps are 4-1-2; they are 3-6-1 when he does not. When both score at least one point the Caps
are 4-2-2; they are 2-4-1 when neither scores a point.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Arizona: Mikkel Boedker
This has the makings of a breakout year for Mikkel
Boedker. With seven goals in 18 games,
he is on a pace to finish with 32 goals, a total that would obliterate his career
high (19, set last season). Boedker was
an eighth overall draft pick in 2008, but it has not been an easy climb for him
to get to this level. A decent rookie
season in 2008-2009 (11 goals in 78 games) was followed by a year spent
mostly in the AHL (64 games with San
Antonio). He split time between Phoenix
and San Antonio in 2010-2011 before sticking for good in 2011-2012. He has not missed a game with the Coyotes since. He comes into this game with the Capitals
with points in each of his last four games (2-2-4). In six career games against the Caps, he is
1-2-3, minus-1, including a pair of assists in the 6-5 win over Washington on
November 2nd.
Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov
Evgeny Kuznetsov might be nicknamed “The Morse Code Player.” His scoring seems almost like an SOS call…
dit-dit-dit (point-point-point)… dot-dot-dot-dot (none-none-none-none)… dit-dit-dit
(point-point-point)… dot-dot-dot-dot-dot (none-none-none-none-none)… He has two
three-game scoring streaks thus far, but he is without a point in his last five
games and without a goal in his last seven games. Moreover, he has almost stopped
shooting. After recording 21 shots in
his first 12 games, he has two in his last four contests. After a brief lull in which he skated less
than ten minutes in consecutive games, he is back in double digits in each of
his last two contests. Still. These are
modest achievements for a player many thought would challenge for a Calder
Trophy as top rookie this season. His
last point came in the 6-5 loss to Arizona on November 2nd.
In the end…
There are no gimmes on the NHL schedule, but this is where
the calendar looks a lot more hospitable for the Caps, starting with this
game. The Caps next three opponents –
Arizona and Colorado on the road, followed by Buffalo at home – have a combined
record at the moment of 18-30-8, and all of them are below .500 in standings
points. Except for a 4:38 span
straddling the second and third periods, when the Coyotes scored three goals, the
first of the meetings between these clubs was dominated by the Caps. Unfortunately that’s like saying that but for
a ruckus in the President’s box at Ford’s Theater, “Our American Cousin” was a
delightful play.
The Caps have found it difficult to sustain any continuity
in their performance from game to game, especially after their 3-0-2
start. Putting together consecutive good
games has been uncommon. It is not as if
the Coyotes have been setting the world on fire with their play. It’s time the Caps start setting some fires
of their own. Under their own backsides
would be a good start.
Capitals 4 – Coyotes 2
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