The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals end the 2014 portion of their
2014-2015 schedule on Monday night when they visit the New York Islanders at
the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Uniondale, NY. This will be the 200th all-time regular
season meeting of the clubs, a series that the Caps lead, 98-84 with 13 ties
and four extra time losses.
The Caps and Islanders have split two games so far this
season, New York winning the front half of a home-and-home series, 3-2, in
overtime on November 26th on Long Island. The Caps got even with a 5-2 win on home ice
on November 28th. The
overtime win by the Islanders was typical of their season so far. New York has won more extra time games
overall (nine) than any team in the league and is tied for the league lead in
wins via the Gimmick (six). It is a team
that has had very good fortune playing on thin margins. While there are 18 teams than have played as
many or more one-goal games as the Islanders (18), only Anaheim has more wins
(17 in 23 games) than the Islanders (15 in 18 games).
Of late, the Islanders have been on a see-saw with respect
to wins and losses. Since losing to the
Caps, 5-2, on November 28th, New York won three straight, then lost
three straight, followed that up with a four-game winning streak, and now find
themselves losers of their last two games as they prepare to face the Caps.
With two games left on their December schedule, the
Islanders face the Caps with a 6-4-1 record for the month. John Tavares leads the Isles in goal scoring for
the month (five) and comes into this game with three goals in his last three
games. Tavares has been a very
consistent player this season, not having gone more than two games without a
point so far. He has two four-game point
streaks this season and is looking for his third such streak when he faces
Washington on Monday. He is 10-7-17,
plus-1, in 19 career games against the Capitals.
Kyle Okposo leads the Islanders in points for the month
(3-7-10). He, too, is coming into the
game against the Caps on a three-game points streak (1-3-4), and he has three
multi-point games in his last nine contests.
Despite the points production of late, Okposo has had a odd season of
sorts. With 119 shots on goal in 35
games, he is tied for ninth in the league and is on a pace to finish with his
highest career shot total (279).
However, with only eight goals on those 119 shots he is on a pace to
finish with his second lowest shooting percentage (6.7 percent) in his
eight-year career. He is 7-7-14, plus-6,
in 20 career games against Washington.
Brock Nelson got off to a fast start with six goals and 12
points in his first nine games this season.
Since that hot start he is 8-7-15 in 23 games. Nelson is, however, second on the team in
goals for December (four) and has already matched his career high in goals (14)
set in his rookie year last season. He
is 0-2-2 in five career games against the Caps.
Here is how the two clubs compare overall…
1. Those 15 one-goal
wins are the reason that the Islanders have the best winning percentage in
one-goal games this season (.833). In
decisions not settled by one goal, the Islanders are rather ordinary (8-9).
2. The Gimmick has
been kind to the Islanders so far, almost obscenely so. New York is 6-1 in the freestyle competition and
have done it largely by converting their scoring chances. They have 12 goals in 24 shots, tied for the
top shooting percentage in the league.
The 12 goals scored is second only to the Florida Panthers.
3. Part of the reason
the Islanders have been successful in extra time is that they have allowed
themselves to be forced into the extra session.
Only five teams have allowed more third period goals than the Isles
(38), and they have a third period goal differential of minus-9 for the season.
4. Only four teams
have scored more goals at 5-on-5 than the Islanders (72), and only two teams
have more shorthanded goals scored than the five that New York has posted.
5. Three times this
season the Islanders have lost a game after taking a 3-0 lead. All three instances have occurred this
month. They lost to St. Louis, 6-4, on
December 6th after taking a 3-0 first period lead. They lost to Minnesota, 5-4, on December 9th,
after taking another 3-0 first period lead.
Finally, they lost to Buffalo, 4-3 in a Gimmick last Saturday after
taking a 3-0 lead into the third period.
1. Only the New York
Rangers have earned more standings points against Metropolitan Division teams
(23) than the Caps (20).
2. The Caps enjoyed
14 power play opportunities in three games last week. It is the most they have had in any
three-game stretch this season and the most they had in any three-game stretch
since they had 16 opportunities over the March 1-5 period last season.
3. Where one-goal
games have been a source of success for the Islanders this season, they have
been less of one for the Caps.
Washington is tied for 22nd in winning percentage in one-goal
decisions this season (.400/8-6-6). In
decisions of more than one goal, the Caps are 10-5.
4. All goals count,
so we will not make too much of the fact that the Caps are tied for fourth in
the league in empty net goals scored (five).
For the record, the scorers are: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, Joel
Ward, Eric Fehr, and Brooks Laich.
5. Washington,
Pittsburgh, and Calgary are the only teams with five players with ten or more
goals scored. Marcus Johansson joined
the club to make it five for the Caps when he scored against Pittsburgh on
Saturday.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New York: Jaroslav Halak
Number one Islander goaltender Jaroslav Halak last saw
action on December 20th, stopping 20 of 21 shots in a 3-1 win over
the Tampa Bay Lightning. He missed the
Islanders’ last two games, however, with a lower-body injury (groin). He practiced with the team on Sunday and
seems likely to return to the net for the Isles on Monday night. They could use him. Since going 3-4-0, 3.44, .891 in his first
seven appearances, he is 15-2-0, 1.78, .932, with three shutouts in his last 17
appearances. And that includes a
two-game hiccup in which he lost consecutive games to the St. Louis Blues after
winning 11 straight decisions. He is
working on a four-game winning streak as the Caps come to town. He is 5-4-0,
2.65, .897 in nine career appearances against the Caps.
Washington: Matt Niskanen
Although Matt Niskanen was signed to a big contract in free
agency by the Caps last summer, it was always unlikely that he would match the
point total he put together for the Pittsburgh Penguins last season (10-36-46,
plus-33 in 81 games). He was not going
to get the featured ice time, either at even strength or on the power play,
with fellow right-handed shots John Carlson and Mike Green on the roster. Still, Niskanen is without a point in his
last six games and has just a goal and an assist in his last 13 contests. In those six straight games without a point
he has just five shots on goal. He is
not expected to be a heavy-duty scorer from the blue line, but if he can jump
up a notch in production it would add a dimension that would make the Caps that
much more difficult to play. He has
never scored a goal against the Islanders, but he does have ten assists in 17 career
games.
In the end…
In the Caps’ 8-1-2 run through the Eastern Conference to end
the calendar year they have outscored opponents by a 34-20 margin and have a
special teams index over 100 (101.5, power play plus penalty killing
percentages). They are 3-0-2 in one-goal
decisions, 5-1 in games decided by more than one goal. Twice they won games in regulation when
scoring just two goals, an issue with the club last season. Braden Holtby has two shutouts in his last
four games. This is a team that is
playing well and being rewarded for it.
On the other hand, the Islanders have a very nice record, but one
wonders if the underlying numbers – a dependence on one-goal wins and
extra-time success – is sustainable over a full season. The “X” factor here is Jaroslav Halak, who
has been arguably the best goaltender in the league since November 1st. If he is suffering any lingering effects from
his groin injury, it could make it a long night for the Islanders. Even if he is healthy, he will be facing a
team that has been good on a consistent basis for the better part of a
month. It suggests that the Caps will
spoon-feed the hosts a helping of reality to end 2014.
Capitals 4 – Islanders 2
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