The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals close their second back-to-back set
of games in a week when they host the St. Louis Blues this afternoon at Verizon
Center. The Caps will be getting right
back on the horse, so to speak, after a gut-wrenching 1-0 overtime loss to the
Montreal Canadiens at Bell Centre yesterday.
The Caps ran into a hot Montreal team yesterday, a club that
had won four straight entering the contest.
They will do the same when they face the Blues, also winners of their
last four contests. In fact, St. Louis
has not lost in regulation in their last ten contests (9-0-1). They are doing it in a fashion that reflects
their coaching.
Ken Hitchcock coaches teams that are difficult to play
against, limiting shots and goals, and fashioning a physical approach. In their 9-0-1 run, the Blues have allowed a
total of 19 goals and an average of 24.8 shots per game. Only twice in that stretch have they allowed
more than two goals in a game.
On the other hand, the Blues’ offense has been something to
behold over this streak. St. Louis has
scored 42 goals over the ten games, including a pair of seven-goal efforts at
the expense of the San Jose Sharks.
Fourteen players share in the 42 goals, and 18 skaters have recorded
points. The goal total is impressive, but
it is heavily weighted among four players.
David Backes leads the charge with eight goals in his last ten games,
including a four-goal effort against the Arizona Coyotes on January 6th. T.J. Oshie has seven goals in the 9-0-1 run, while
Jaden Schwartz and Alexander Steen have six apiece.
Schwartz is perhaps the least known of this foursome to
Capitals fans. Now in his fourth season
with St. Louis, Schwartz is developing into quite a goal-scorer. Two years ago he finished with seven goals in
45 games, and last season he had 25 goals in 80 games. This season, with 17 goals in 41 games, he is
on a pace to finish with 31 goals for the season. He does not have much exposure to the Caps in
his brief career to date. In three games
against Washington, Schwartz is 1-1-2, plus-1.
While the goal scoring has come largely from the forwards in
St. Louis’ recent success, the defense has contributed in stoking the
fire. Kevin Shattenkirk and Alex
Pietrangelo each have seven assists in the Blue’s last ten games. Shattenkirk also contributed two goals. He is
second among the league’s defensemen in total scoring (42 points), trailing
only Calgary’s Mark Giordano. His 32
assists leads all NHL defensemen.
While the Blues were saying goodbye to goalie Martin Brodeur
on the ice and welcoming him to the front office, Brian Elliott was adding to
his resume in solid fashion over the past ten games. Elliott made eight appearances, compiling a
record of 6-0-1 (one no-decision), 2.04, .919, with two shutouts. Elliott has three shutouts this season, and
they are something of a reflection of the system in which he plays. In none of them did he face more than 27
shots, and he faced and average of 22.7 shots in the three games. Elliott is 5-2-0, 3.19, .881 in nine career
appearances against Washington.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. St. Louis has a
very respectable goals against average among their goaltenders (2.34). Their combined save percentage of .913 is not
especially impressive, although Elliott’s .943 save percentage at even strength
is the best in the league among goalies playing in at least 20 games (note:
Carey Price, who shut out the Caps yesterday, is second at .942).
2. The Blues are the
only team in the league with a goal differential of plus-8 or better in all
three periods of games this season. They
are a plus-8 in the first period, plus-11 in the second, and plus-15 in the
third.
3. Only four teams so
far this season have more wins by three or more goals than the Blues (11), and
only four teams have a better winning percentage in such games (.688/11-5).
4. The Blues have the
best winning percentage among Western Conference teams against the East (.706/12-3-2)
and are 8-1-0 against the Metropolitan Division. They have not lost to a Metropolitan Division
team since dropping a 3-2 decision to the New York Rangers on Opening Night.
5. St. Louis is third
in the league, behind Montreal and the Caps, in winning percentage when scoring
first in games (.815/22-4-1). Only five
teams have a better winning percentage when scored upon first than the Blues (.429/9-9-3).
1. Going into Sunday’s
games, only five teams have played fewer home games than the Caps (23). As a team that is 8-0-2 in their last ten
home games, having so many home games coming over the next ten weeks is
something that could bear dividends later in the season.
2. Even when they are
not playing one another, the Caps and the Penguins seem joined at the hip. Going into Sunday’s games, the Caps and
Penguins have identical numbers of goals scored (143) and goals allowed (121)
in 49 games apiece.
3. In their 8-0-2
record over their last ten home games, Washington has out-scored opponents by a
29-17 margin. They have not been doing
it by limiting shots (294 for, 295 against), but their special teams have been
very good: 8-for-32 (25.0 percent) on the power play, 34-for-38 (89.5 percent)
on the penalty kill.
4. Note that shooting
percentage for opponents in the Caps’ last ten home games (.058). Goaltending, meaning Braden Holtby, has been
superb. Holtby appeared in all ten
games, compiling a record of 8-0-2, 1.68, .942, with two shutouts.
5. No team has more
extra-time losses this season than the Caps (10, tied with Florida). Six of those losses have come in overtime. There, Holtby’s save percentage of .778 is
fifth worst among goalies appearing in at least 20 games. Not that four losses coming while shorthanded
has anything to do with it, eh?
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
St. Louis: Vladimir Tarasenko
Over his first 36 games, Vladimir Tarasenko was on a pace to
finish with 50 goals. Over his last 12
games, though, he has a total of two goals and is without one in his last five
contests. One might say he is shooting
in bad luck, scoring those two goals on a total of 43 shots (4.7 percent). On the other hand, it might be the pendulum
swinging the other way after a hot first 36 games (17.9 percent on 22-for-123
shooting). Still, he is on a pace to be
only the second Blues player to finish with more than 40 goals (41) since Brett
Hull was lighting things up for St. Louis in the mid-1990’s (Brad Boyes has 43
in 2007-2008). Here is your fact of the
day… Tarasenko does not have a goal on the road since December 6th
against the New York Islanders, nine games and counting. In two career games against Washington he
does not have a point.
Washington: Brooks Laich
As we noted in our post-game recap of the loss to Montreal Brooks Laich had a solid game – four shots on goal, five hits, three blocked
shots, drew three penalties (one coincidental) and plus-13 in Corsi at 5-on-5.
It would be nice to get a bit more offensive production from him (no goals in
his last ten games), but playing as he did yesterday, if he can continue it, is
an important part of the sort of game the Caps play under Barry Trotz. It is especially important against an
opponent such as St. Louis, which plays such a heavy game itself. Laich is 1-2-3 in eight career appearances
against the Blues.
In the end…
With any team on a streak, you can see the streak coming or going
before they start or end. In the case of
the Blues, on a ten-game points streak, you might be seeing the end coming from
the results of their last two games, both Gimmick wins, one against a struggling opponent
(Carolina). Still, it is a club against
which it is very hard to score (two or fewer goals allowed in five of their
last six games). The Caps have a tough
task ahead, made tougher by 63 minutes of grind-it-out hockey against Montreal
on Saturday afternoon with one point to show for it. But the Caps have become a team that is hard
to score against themselves (well, as long as Braden Holtby is in goal). It might be a boring affair on Super Bowl
Sunday, but if it ends in a win, that’s fine with us.
Capitals 2 – Blues 1
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