The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals wrap up their three-game California
road trip hoping to salvage one win out of the journey when they face the
Anaheim Ducks on Sunday night. Washington,
having dropped three in a row going back to their last home game, a loss to the
Dallas Stars, have not lost four in a row since January 2015 and have not lost
four in a row in regulation time since Games 8-11 of the 2014-2015 season (part
of what would be a five-game losing streak).
The Ducks have been treading water over the past six weeks
or so. Since February 1st
they are 7-8-1. While the Ducks slipped
from one point behind the San Jose Sharks in the Pacific Division to seven
points behind through Friday’s games over that span, the Ducks are still in third place in the division and are fifth in the
Western Conference.
In the 16 games since February 1st, only one Duck
is in double digits in points. Ryan
Getzlaf, the Ducks’ leading scorer this season (12-41-53) is 5-10-15 over those
16 games. He scored those points in
bunches with four multi-point games, two of them of the three-point variety. If there is an odd quality to his scoring
over this stretch it is that in the four games in which he scored goals, the
Ducks lost three times (including a two-goal game against the Arizona Coyotes). This is the tenth full season in a row (not
counting his 57-game rookie season and the abbreviated 2012-2013 season) that
Getzlaf topped the 50-point mark. And,
he seems well on his way to finishing the season with his eighth 60-point
campaign in his career. It is all part
of a resume that makes Getzlaf a player who ranks fourth in assists (561) and
ninth in the league in points (794) since he came into the league in
2005-2006. Getzlaf is 5-9-14, plus-2, in
13 career games against the Caps.
Rickard Rakell leads the team in goals over their last 16
games (seven), adding to his team-leading goal total for the season (28). He is the only duck to date to have topped
the 20-goal mark. While Rakell has been
the finisher for this team, he has not been much in terms of setting up
scores. With a scoring line this season
of 28-11-39, he and the New York Rangers’ Michael Grabner are the only players
in the league with 25 or more goals and 15 or fewer assists. Rakell is one of the more efficient shooters
in the league this season. Of 259
skaters recording at least 100 shots on goal, Rakell is fifth with a 20.3
shooting percentage. And don’t let him
get going on shots. Six times this
season he recorded five or more shots on goal, and in four of those occasions
he recorded goals, three of those being two-goal games. Rakell is 0-0-0, minus-1, in four career
games against Washington.
Cam Fowler leads the Duck defensemen in scoring this season
(11-22-33), but his point production has been off since February 1st. After going 11-16-27 in his first 52 games
this season, he is 0-6-6 in 16 games since February 1st. The absence of goal scoring is something that
doesn’t seem to matter when looking at the games this season in which he did
record goals. Anaheim is just 5-4-2 in
games in which Fowler has goals this season.
Nevertheless, Fowler is a minutes-eater.
He has 34 games this season skating at least 25 minutes. That ranks eighth in the league. Fowler is 0-6-6, minus-9, in nine career
games against the Capitals, that minus-9 being the worst he has over his career
against any Eastern Conference team.
1. Since February 1st,
the Ducks’ special teams have been very good and very bad. The good is the penalty kill, which is
49-for-55 over those 16 games (89.1 percent, third in the league since February
1st). At the other end, the
power play is an anemic 3-for-42 (7.1 percent, worst in the league over that
span).
2. The Ducks have had
six players record more than 50 minutes in penalties this season, including one
no longer with the team (Joseph Cramarossa logged 51 penalty minutes before
being claimed off waivers by Vancouver): Jared Boll (80), Josh Manson (67),
Kevin Bieksa (61), Corey Perry (57), and
Ryan Kesler (57).
3. As befits a team
that takes so many penalties, the Ducks are tied with the Winnipeg Jets for the
most shorthanded situations faced this season (234, through Friday’s games).
4. Trailing after two
periods is no recipe for success in the NHL, but it has been particularly
difficult for the Ducks to win in such situations. Only the San Jose Sharks and Florida Panthers
have fewer wins when trailing after two periods (one apiece) than the Ducks
(two), and Anaheim has the fourth-worst winning percentage when trailing after
40 minutes (.071/2-19-7).
5. Anaheim has
trouble generating offensive pressure as reflected in shot attempts. Their shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5
(54.70) ranks 20th in the league.
On top of that, their Corsi shooting percentage is 3.88 percent, 19th
in the league (numbers from Corsica.hockey).
Not getting a lot of attempt and converting on comparatively few of them
at fives is a combination that kills offensive production.
1. The loss in Los
Angeles on Saturday night was the Caps’ tenth road loss in regulation time this
season, matching the total they had in all of the 2015-2016 season.
2. The Caps, who lead
the league in wins when scoring first, lost both games of this road trip having
scored the game’s first goal. They have
dropped into second place in the league in winning percentage when scoring
first (.766/36-7-4).
3. In 11 games since
the February break, the Caps scored two or fewer goals nine times, averaging
2.18 goals per game.
4. Penalty killing in
road games has deteriorated for the Caps recently. The two goals they allowed Los Angeles on six
power plays makes it three times in the last four road games the Caps allowed
two power play goals. In those last four
road games, Washington is just 13-for-19 killing penalties (68.4 percent).
5. Washington has
allowed four or more goals in three of their last four road games. They allowed four or more goals in just five
of their previous 29 road games.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Anaheim: Corey Perry
From 2005-2006 through last season, only four players in the NHL scored more goals than Corey Perry (330).
Only six players had more 30-goal seasons. That was then, this is now. Perry is in
the midst of what might be his most disappointing season in a 12-year career,
all of which has been spent with the Ducks.
Perry managed just seven goals in his first 30 games, and if anything,
he is slowing down. He has just five
goals in his last 38 games, one in his last 12 contests. His shooting efficiency has, by his career
standards, been awful. Before this
season Perry was a 13.6 percent shooter, but this season he has just 12 goals
on 181 shots (6.6 percent). He has been
particularly cold at home of late. Perry
has gone his last 17 home games without a goal, his last one coming back on
December 11th in a 5-1 win over the Ottawa Senators. Perry is 6-8-14, minus-1, in 14 career games
against the Caps.
Washington: Nicklas Backstrom
Nicklas Backstrom did not record a point against the Los
Angeles Kings last night. That makes two
games in a row he did not post a point, and that is an uncommon occurrence for
Backstrom this season. Only six times in
67 games has Backstrom gone two of more games in a row without a point, and,
with the Ducks on tap for Sunday night, he has not gone three games without a
point since Games 11-13 in early November.
Backstrom getting on the score sheet matters for the Caps. He has points in 41 of 67 games this season,
and in those games the Caps are 31-5-5.
They are just 13-11-2 when Backstrom is held off the score sheet. Backstrom’s history in California is a bit
odd. In 18 games played on the west
coast in his career against San Jose, Los Angeles, and Anaheim, he is roughly a
point a game player (4-12-16), but he is also a minus-10 and has only three “plus”
games in the bunch. What he has been
able to do is put up points in Anaheim.
In five career games against the Ducks in Anaheim, Backstrom is 1-6-7,
even, with three multi-point games in that group. Overall, he is 5-10-15, even, in 11 career
games against the Ducks.
In the end…
There is “playing well,” and there are the rewards. Not every time does the former beget the
latter, and it is tempting to say that last night was such a case for the Caps
in Los Angeles. The Caps did out-attempt
the Kings substantially at 5-on-5, topping Los Angeles by a 35-28 margin (55.6
percent Corsi-for). But converting those
attempts into shots was a less
successful enterprise, the Kings recording 15 shots at 5-on-5 to 13 for the
Caps. It translated into a 3-1 advantage
in goals for the Kings at fives. It had
the look of a team playing well, but not well enough against a team scrambling
to reach the postseason (the Kings are three points out of a playoff spot).
Anaheim is not in as dire a situation as the Kings, but the
Caps are not playing at a consistently efficient level, either. The challenge here is to try to get an
offense untracked against a good defensive team (seventh in scoring defense)
and, should they get a lead, to hold and expand on a lead. That’s the sort of game management
fundamental that has eluded the Caps lately and one they need to refresh as the
playoffs approach.
Capitals 4 – Ducks 2
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