The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals close their three-game home stand
looking for a sweep when the Arizona Coyotes come to town on Saturday night.
The Caps come into this game having won four of five overall and have point in
all five contests (4-0-1). Arizona, which had been making progress with a
three-game winning streak earlier this month (tying their longest of the
season), have fallen back again with a 1-3-1 record in their last five games.
Offense has been hit or miss for the Coyotes for a while
now. In their last 11 games they scored four or more four times, and they were
held to one or no goals five times, while posting a record of 5-4-2. The lack
of scoring shows up in the individual point totals, too. Tobias Rieder leads
the club with seven points in those 11 games (2-5-7). That is not especially
surprising, given he is the third-leading scorer for the season (16-18-34). But
the thing is, he hasn’t done much scoring, either in the last 11 games or the
season for that matter, on the road. He has a goal and an assist in five road
games in this 11-game stretch (although his overall scoring in March has been
his best month to date) and is just 6-8-14 in 36 road games (sixth on the club
in road points). Rieder is 1-2-3, plus-3, in four career games against the
Caps.
Brendan Perlini and Radim Vrbata lead the Coyotes in goals
in this 11-game span (three apiece). Vrbata appeared in his 1,000th NHL game on
March 9th, a 3-2 overtime loss to the Ottawa Senators. He has moved around in
doing it, playing for six franchises in his career, including two tours with
the Coyotes, for whom he has played in 502 of his 1,008 career games. In this,
his first year in his second tour with the Coyotes after two years in
Vancouver, he has had a personal comeback of sorts. His goal scoring is up (from 13 last season
to 18 this year), as are his assists (from 14 to 34) and his points (from 27 to
52). With a late-season push he could challenge his career high in points (63
in 2014-2014 with the Canucks). Vrbata is 7-5-12, minus-7, in 18 career games
against Washington.
Perlini is at the other end of the experience scale, a 12th
overall draft pick in 2014 by Arizona and in his rookie season with the
Coyotes. His 13 goals (in just 49 games) is tied for 11th among rookies. He has
had a bit of a rough time lately as far as goal scoring goes. After potting
single goals in three straight games, he is now six games and counting without
one; without a point, in fact. This will be his first game against the Caps.
Then there are the goalies. Arizona has employed four of
them so far this season – Mike Smith, Louis Domingue, Justin Peters, and Marek
Langhamer. Of the quartet, Mike Smith has had the most work (50 appearances)
and has the best numbers. He is the only one of the four with a goals against
average under 3.00 (2.94) and the only one with a save percentage over .905
(.914). He also happens to be the only one to pitch at least one shutout this
season (three). He was in the net eight times over the Coyotes’ but has little
to show for it or perhaps deserves a bit better fate than he has had. He is
2-4-2, 2.99, .920 in those games, that save percentage perhaps deserving more
success than he had. One manifestation of the lack of offensive support he has
had this season is that he has a record of 6-21-4 in 31 games in which he
allowed three or more goals this season. Smith is 2-7-1, 3.72, .879 with one
shutout in 11 career appearances against the Caps. That save percentage against
Washington is the worst he has against any opponent he has faced.
1. Arizona has ten
players at minus-10 or worse, Oliver Ekman Larsson being at the bottom of the
heap with a minus-24. Only two of 287 defensemen in the league to have dressed
this season – Damon Severson of New Jersey (minus-27) and Tyson Barrie of
Colorado (minus-29) – are worse.
2. The Coyotes are
the only team in the NHL with two players in the top ten in credited hits. Luke
Schenn is second (252), and Connor Murphy is ninth (170).
3. Who scores first
hardly seems to matter concerning Arizona. They have the second-worst winning
percentage when scoring first (.486/18-14-5) and the third-worst winning
percentage when scored upon first (9-24-4/.243). If not for Colorado
threatening to finish the season with the fewest wins in a season since the
2004-2005 lockout, Arizona would have the worst record in the league.
4. Arizona doesn’t
blow anybody out. Their four wins by three or more games is tied for fewest in
the league (with, who else, Colorado). They’ve lost 20 such games, second-most
in the league (the Avalanche have 25).
5. No surprise
here…Arizona is the worst possession team in the league. Adjusted for score,
zone, and venue, they have a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 of 45.77, well south of
29th-place Vancouver (47.10; numbers from Corsica.hockey).
1. In their five-game
points streak, the Caps are 3-for-14 on the power play (21.4 percent) and
10-for-12 killing penalties 83.3 percent).
2. The Caps have 40
or more shots on goal in three of their last five games, all of them on home
ice. All but one of their instances of 40 or more shots have come at home this
season (they had 41 in a 3-2 Gimmick loss to Pittsburgh on Opening Night).
3. All six defensemen
who appeared in more than 20 games this season for the Caps are better than
plus-10. Only one Capital defenseman who has appeared in at least ten games is
a “minus” player – Kevin Shattenkirk (minus-1).
4. Milestone watch…If
Daniel Winnik gets a goal, he will be the 11th player this season to reach
double digits in goals for the Caps. If Justin Williams gets a power play
point, he gets to ten, giving the Caps six players with at least ten power play
points this season. Lars Eller and Andre Burakovsky could reach the 100-shot
mark for the season; Burakovsky needs three, while Eller needs two. If Jay
Beagle gets the game-winning goal, he would be the fourth Capital to register
at least five game-winners this season.
5. The Caps are
making progress on the penalty front in one respect. They are up to having the
fifth worst penalty differential at 5-on-5 (minus-28). At one point this season
they were worst (numbers from Corsica.hockey).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Arizona: Shane Doan
Only 14 players in NHL history – and only two active players
– have appeared in more games in the NHL than Shane Doan. His 1,536 games
played trails only Jarome Iginla (1,545) and Jaromir Jagr (1,702) among active
players. He is fourth in the history of the league in games played with one
team, trailing only Alex Delvecchio (1,549), Nicklas Lidstrom (1,564), and
Gordie Howe (1,687), all of whom did it for the Detroit Red Wings. Doan, who
actually got his start with the original Winnipeg Jets incarnation of the
franchise (their last year in Canada) is now in his 21st and perhaps last
season (his contract expires after this season). He is hardly the player he was
ten years ago, but who would expect him to be? Still, he is on a pace to finish
with fewer goals (seven) than he had in any full season since he finished the
1998-1999 season with six goals. He is on a 28-point pace, which would be his
fewest since he had 22 points in that same 1998-1999 season. At the moment, he has one goal and nine
points in his last 19 games and two goals and 15 points in his last 36 games. Doan, who is currently day-to-day with a
lower body injury (but could return against the Caps)
is 8-8-16, plus-3, in 26 career games against the Caps.
Washington: Andre
Burakovsky
Andre Burakovsky has become, if not a primary scorer for the
Capitals, than something more than a secondary scorer. That was never more evident than when he
missed 15 games with an injured hand, over which the Caps went just 7-6-2 and
averaged just 2.47 goals per game.
Compare that to the Caps with Burakovsky in the lineup, where they are 39-10-6
and average 3.40 goals per game in the 55 games in which he has played (he also
missed three games in December). It isn’t
that the Caps are particularly successful when he scores on his own (6-1-3 in
ten games in which he scored a goal), but in the 23 games in which he recorded
a point, Washington is 18-2-3. Over his
last 17 games, straddling that injury absence, he has only one set of
consecutive games without a point and is 6-10-16, plus-15 (and does not have a “minus”
game in the group). The odd thing about
his scoring is the relative lack of it at Verizon Center this season. He is 2-12-14 in 30 home games, while going
9-8-17 in 25 games on the road. In four
career games against Arizona, Burakovsky is 0-1-1, minus-3.
In the end…
Yes, this could be another of those “trap” games for the Capitals. It is their getaway game before embarking on
a five-game road trip through three time zones over nine days. And taking a team like the Coyotes lightly,
even if it is their fourth game in their own five-game road trip, is a recipe
for disappointment and would make the road trip that is coming one with more
pressure than it should have. Put them
on the mat, stand on their throats, get the two points, and head off on your
journey.
Capitals 5 – Coyotes 1
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