The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals start the back half of their
four-game road trip with a visit to the Windy City and a Friday night faceoff
against the Chicago Blackhawks at United Center. The Caps, fresh off their 5-2 win over the
Minnesota Wild on Thursday night, are 3-0-2 in their last five games. The Blackhawks, who lost at home to the
Anaheim Ducks, 3-2, on Thursday night, are dragging an eight-game losing streak
into this contest (0-7-1), dropping them 12 points out of a playoff spot with
24 games left to play.
For the Blackhawks, the eight-game losing streak is the tail
end of a slide that has seen them drop 12 of 14 decisions since January 14th
(2-10-2). The slump has two main
features. One, the Blackhawks can’t
score, averaging just 1.86 points per game over those 14 games, and two, they
can’t keep opponents from scoring, allowing an average of 3.57 goals per
game. That pretty much covers the big issues.
On offense, the Blackhawks have spread the goals around in
their 14-game slump – 13 different players have goals – but no one is providing
consistent goal scoring other than Alex DeBrincat, who has seven of the team’s
26 goals in that span. DeBrincat is
having a rookie season worthy of Calder Trophy consideration. His 21 goals overall ranks third among all
rookies, trailing only Vancouver’s Brock Boeser (27) and Tampa Bay’s Yanni
Gourde (22). His 38 points are tied for
fifth in this year’s rookie class. He is
the only rookie in this year’s class to record two hat tricks, one in a 7-3 win
over the Anaheim Ducks on November 27th, the other in a 5-1 win in
Detroit over the Red Wings on January 25th. When he scored Chicago’s only goal in a 6-1
loss to the Arizona Coyotes last Monday, he became the 16th rookie
in Blackhawk history to record 20 or more goals in his rookie season. He had an assist in the Blackhawks’ 6-2 loss
to the Caps on December 6th, his only appearance against Washington
to date.
At the other end of the scoring, at least expectations-wise,
is Jonathan Toews. Talk about a
slump. Over this 2-10-2 span, Toews has
one goal on 41 shots, a 2.4 percent shooting percentage. Compare that to the 14 goals on 129 shots he
compiled over his first 44 games (10.9 percent). His shooting drying up is a big reason he has
only three even strength points in those 14 games (he also has three power play
assists). Toews does seem to have come
on a little bit of late, though. His
shooting efficiency has not improved (one goal on 31 shots), but he is 1-5-6 in
his last ten games, and he is still firing shots on net with 16 shots on goal
in his last four games. What is odd
about Toews goal scoring this year was how little bearing it seems to have on
results. In 14 games in which he
recorded a goal this season, Chicago is just 7-5-2. Compare that to a record of 13-4-2 when Toews
recorded an assist. Toews is 6-4-10,
minus-4, in 12 career games against Washington.
And that brings us to the question… “who is Vinnie
Hinostroza?” You will be forgiven if you
don’t know that Hinostroza is tied for second in goals scored in this 2-10-2
slump on which the Blackhawks find themselves.
Those three goals he has in those 14 games doubled his season output to
date (six) and matches in 27 games this season the six he had last season in 49
games of his rookie season. Hinostroza
is hardly a household name outside of Blackhawk circles, but the center was a
sixth-round draft pick of the Blackhawks out of Notre Dame in the 2012 entry
draft. He had decent, if not
outstanding goal totals in previous stops, recording 19 in 76 career games at
Notre Dame and 21 in 86 games over three seasons with the Rockford IceHogs of
the AHL. The odd part of his goal
scoring profile this season is that only one of his six goals were scored on
home ice. That is a duplicate of last
year, when Hinostroza also scored just one of six goals on home ice for the
season. In two career games against the
Caps, Hinostroza is without a point and is minus-3.
1. The Blackhawks
have the worst record in the league over their last 14 games (2-10-2). What makes it worse is that their six
standings points earned in that span are three fewer than the Columbus Blue
Jackets and Edmonton Oilers, despite the fact that Chicago has played three
more games than both of those other teams.
2. Chicago’s shooting
percentage over those 14 games (5.3 percent) is worst in the league over that
span, nullifying their shots on goal advantage of plus-4.29 per game (34.93
shots on goal versus 30.64 shots on goal allowed).
3. You have to wonder
if the Blackhawks are unlucky lately. In
their 2-10-2 slump, they have a shot attempts-for percentage of 53.16 overall,
sixth best in the league over that span (numbers from NHL.com).
4. And it is not as
if the Blackhawks have lacked for special team opportunities. Their 49 power play chances over this 14-game
stretch is second most in the league, and the top team (New Jersey with 55) has
played two more games than Chicago.
5. Even strength
offense is killing the Blackhawks. In
this 14-game slump they have only 18 even strength goals, fewest in the league
(Buffalo has 21 in 14 games).
1. When the New York
Islanders’ Jaroslav Halak shut out the New York Rangers on Thursday night, it
left the Capitals as the only team in the league not to win a game via shutout
this season. Oh, the Caps have a
shutout, but Philipp Grubauer took a loss in that one via the Gimmick, 1-0, to
the New York Rangers on December 27th.
2. Not sure what to
make of this, but the Caps have the third best 5-on-5 PDO (shooting plus save
percentage) in the league this season (1024; numbers from NHL.com). It’s their shooting percentage that put them
there – 9.7 percent, best in the league.
Those numbers hold up on the road, too (1015 PDO/6th, 10.2 shooting
percentage/1st).
3. If you think of
faceoffs as stoppages that interrupt the flow of a game, the Caps have
flow. Only two teams have taken fewer
draws that Washington (3380) this season: Carolina (3364) and Colorado (3338).
4. The Caps are one
of four teams to have at least as many wins as regulation losses this season when
the opponent scores first (14-14). Vegas
(15-12), Boston (13-11), and Tampa Bay (12-11) are the others.
5. On the other hand,
only Boston (1) and Winnipeg (2) have fewer regulation losses when scoring
first than the Caps (3), although the Caps have scored first just 25 times in
57 games.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Chicago: Jean-Francois Berube
Corey Crawford has not appeared in the Chicago net since December
23rd, when he was pulled after giving up three goals on seven shots
in 13 minutes of a 4-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils. Four days later he went on injured reserve
with an upper body injury. Since then,
Anton Forsberg and Jeff Glass have shared the goaltending duties, and neither
has been an answer. Forsberg is 4-7-0,
3.00, .905 in 11 appearances, and Glass was 3-6-3, 3.31, .898 before being
waived earlier this week for the purpose of returning him to Rockford in the
AHL (he cleared waivers and was reassigned).
In Glass’ place Chicago called up Jean-Francois Berube, a
former fourth round draft pick of the Los Angeles Kings who has 22 games of
experience over three NHL seasons, two with the New York Islanders before
moving to Chicago. In his only
appearance this season he allowed two goals on 14 shots in a no-decision in 44
minutes of work in Chicago’s 6-2 loss to the Caps in December, his only career
appearance against the Caps. If nothing
else, Berube’s recall serves as an object lesson for Caps fans, that Philipp
Grubauer should be appreciated for the fine level of play he has provided in a
backup role. Chicago’s goaltending
situation with Crawford out might be the single most important reason the
Blackhawks miss the playoffs this season, should it come to pass.
Washington: Matt Niskanen
Matt Niskanen has had an odd sort of year for the Washington
Capitals. Caps Nation looks at the
defense and laments the play of Brooks Orpik, it watches anxiously as rookies
Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos race the clock to see if they can develop into
reliable contributors in time for the postseason, and it wonders if this is the
farewell tour of free-agent-to-be John Carlson.
Meanwhile, there is Niskanen. He
has missed an unusually high number (for him) of games due to injury (14), but
when he has been in the lineup, his performance has been, well, Niskanenesque. His scoring line of 4-13-17, plus-15, through
43 games played is not out of line with his 5-34-39, plus-20, in 78 games last
season or the 5-27-32, plus-10, in 82 games the year before that or the
4-27-31, plus-7, he posted in his first year with the Caps in 2014-2015. What is a bit odd is that he has points in
only four road games this season, going 0-5-5, plus-6. Compare that to his having points in 15 home
games this season (4-8-12, plus-14, in those games).
What has been consistent this season is his being a rock in terms of
ice time. The Caps have yet to lose a
game in regulation when he logged more than 24 minutes of ice time
(10-0-3). And while there is a school of
thought that high hit volumes is a reflection of poor possession, the Caps do
seem to do better when he is physically engaged. They are 19-3-1 when Niskanen is credited
with at least two hits in a game this season.
He is 1-9-10, minus-1, in 23 career games against Chicago.
In the end…
This is one of those games where you might get a good idea
of where the Caps’ heads are at. Yes,
these are the Chicago Blackhawks, winners of three Stanley Cups over the past
eight seasons. Yes, this edition of the
Blackhawks is fighting for their playoff lives, in jeopardy of missing the
postseason for the first time since 2008 and the first time for head coach Joel
Quenneville since he came to Chicago.
But this club is crippled. They
can’t score, and they are not getting very good goaltending in the absence of
their number one netminder. It is a club
of which the Caps need to take advantage.
Getting a jump early would take the fans out of the game and perhaps
kill whatever confidence whichever netminder brings to the contest. Do that, and a sixth straight game with a
standings point would seem to be in order.
Capitals 4 – Blackhawks 2
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