The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
If it seems like weeks since the Washington Capitals last
played at Capital One Arena, it has been.
Two weeks, in fact, since the Caps dropped a 6-5 Gimmick decision to the
Florida Panthers. The Caps return home
on Saturday night to face the Dallas Stars after splitting a four-game road
swing through Canada (2-2-0).
Washington will take the ice on Saturday hoping to find some
epoxy or sealant to plug the holes in what has been a leaky defense so
far. Despite splitting the four
decisions on the road over the last couple of weeks, the Caps allowed 15 goals
in the four games, the 3.75 goals allowed per game being only marginally better
than the 3.82 goals allowed per game overall over their first 11 contests of
the season.
Opening a five-game home stand against the Stars might not
be the worst way to get back on track.
The Stars have been a streaky team in the early going, opening the
season winning three of four games, before dropping three in a row. They have won four of five games going into
this contest, 2-1-0 on their current road trip.
“Streaky” might be a word to describe their offense,
too. After scoring 17 goals in their
first four games of the season (4.25 per game), Dallas has 19 goals in their
last eight games (2.38 per game). It is
balanced scoring overall, though, both in the lineup (16 players have scored
goals) and at the top of the scoring list.
Three Stars are tied for the team lead in goals with five apiece, and
frankly, there are no surprises among them.
Jamie Benn, for example (five goals in 12 games), topped the
30-goalmark in four of his last five seasons.
Since posting 34 goals in the 2013-2014 season, Benn has more goals
scored (177) than any player in the league except Alex Ovechkin (246) and
Sidney Crosby (179). Now in his tenth
NHL season, he is sixth on the all-time franchise list in goals scored (259)
and would seem to be a virtual lock to climb into fourth place (Neal Broten:
274) by year’s end. Of his five goals
this season, three were recorded on power plays; he had ten or more power play
goals in three of the last four seasons, coming up one shot last season. Despite being drafted in the fifth round
(129th overall) in the 2007 entry draft, Benn is the second-ranked goal scorer
in his draft class, trailing only Chicago’s Patrick Kane (323), although Benn
has played in almost 160 fewer games (679 to 835 for Kane). Benn is 6-8-14, plus-13, in 13 career games
against Washington.
Alexander Radulov isn’t much of a surprise at the top of the
Dallas goal-scoring list, either.
Although his NHL career has been beset by interruptions (2008-2009
through 2010-2011 with Salavat Yulayev Ufa in the KHL and 2012-2013 through
2016-2017 with CSKA Moskva in the KHL), he has been a productive goal scorer,
averaging 24.9 goals per 82 games. He is
shooting at a torrid pace, his five goals coming on only 18 shots (27.8
percent) in seven games (he missed four games in late October to lower body
injury before returning against Montreal on October 20th; he missed Dallas 2-1
loss in Toronto to the Maple Leafs on Thursday). In six career games against Washington,
Radulov is 3-3-6, minus-2. He is also
listed as day-to-day after aggravating his lower body injury.
John Klingberg is the third member of the Stars with five
goals and is one of a handful of defensemen averaging at least a point per game
so far this season (5-7-12 in 12 games).
In his fifth NHL season, he has demonstrated himself to be one of the
most prolific offensive defensemen in the game.
Over that span he ranks 14th in goals scored (47), fourth in assists
(179), and third in points (226). With
his production, his ice time has increased steadily, from 21:50 per game as a
rookie in 2014-2015 to 25:10 in 12 games so far this season. The odd part of his season to date is that
four of his five goals scored came in the Stars’ first five games, while five of
his seven assists have come in his last seven contests. An odd feature of his scoring over his
five-year career is his alternating high shooting percentage years (11.2
percent, 10.5 percent, and 15.6 percent this season in his first, third, and
fifth seasons) with low percentage years (5.8 percent and 3.9 percent in his
second and fourth season). Klingberg is
0-8-8, plus-1, in seven career games against the Caps.
1. Dallas is a great
power play team at home (35.0 percent). On the road? Not so much. They are limping along at 12.5 percent, 26th
in the league, and only two teams have had fewer man advantage chances on the
road than Dallas (36) – Arizona and Pittsburgh (31 apiece).
2. The Stars are one
of six teams left that have not allowed a shorthanded goal. Oddly enough, five
of those teams play in the West (the New York Islanders being the exception).
3. Getting power play
time in the third period is a comparatively rare occurrence, but Dallas has
spent only 14:18 with the man advantage in the final 20 minutes this season.
Only the Islanders have spent less (11:33).
4. Only the Nashville
Predators have more wins when scoring first this season (eight) than the Stars
(six, tied with the Islanders and the San Jose Sharks).
5. Dallas has only
eight first period goals so far this season. Only Vegas (seven) and Los Angeles
(5) have fewer.
1. Washington has
nine third period goals this season. Only Los Angeles and Florida (eight
apiece) have fewer.
2. The Caps could do
without the bench penalties. The three they have is exceeded by only three
teams – Colorado (four), Minnesota (four), and the New York Rangers (five).
3. The Caps have
played one-goal games right down the middle; they are 2-2-2 so far. Their other
three wins were by three or more goals.
4. Nicklas Backstrom
has eight power play point, a total exceeded only by Taylor Hall and Blake
Wheeler (nine apiece).
5.
Quality...Quantity…Quality…Quantity. The Caps rank 26th in the league in
shot attempts at 5-on-5 (487, tied with Minnesota).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Dallas: Tyler Seguin
Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Erik
Karlsson. There are a lot of
star-caliber players in the NHL, but few are as productive over as big a range
of statistical categories as Tyler Seguin since he moved to Dallas from Boston
in a trade with Rich Peverley and Ryan Button for Loui Eriksson, Joe Morrow,
Reilly Smith and Matt Fraser. Since his
first season in Dallas, in 2013-2014, Seguin’s rankings are impressive:
- Goals: 176/4th
- Points: 398/6th
- Game-winning goals: 30/T-7th
- Shots on goal: 1,548/2nd
- Goals per game: 0.44/8th
- Points per game: 1.00/5th
He just doesn’t seem to get the attention such numbers might
deserve. When he takes the ice against
the Caps, it will be his 400th game with the Stars, the 38th player to reach
that milestone in franchise history. His numbers this season
(3-11-14, plus-5, in 12 games) are in keeping with his productive nature in
Dallas generally, but his three goals on 60 shots so far (5.0 percent) is the
worst shooting percentage of his career.
His season to date has also been a bit inconsistent. He torched Winnipeg, Toronto, and Anaheim for
three goals and ten points in a three-game stretch early in the season, but he
is without a goal in his last nine games and is 0-4-4 in his last eight
contests. He has yet to score a goal on
the road this season. In 21 career
appearances against Washington, Seguin is 9-5-14, plus-4.
Washington: Matt Niskanen
Matt Niskanen does not have the booming shot or responsibility
to tee up Alex Ovechkin one-timers like John Carlson. He
doesn’t have quite the physical edge of a Brooks Orpik. He just gets the job done, night in and night
out. He has been a reliable point
producer from the blue line, ranging between 29 and 39 points over his four
seasons in Washington preceding this one, that lower end of the range being a
product of his missing 14 games last season.
Over those four seasons he led the team in games played by a defenseman
(310), was second in assists (110 to 155 for Carlson), was second in points
(131 to 199 for Carlson), and was a team-best plus-61, regardless of
position. He goes into Saturday’s game
against the team that drafted him (28th overall in 2005) with a good
start to this season (2-5-7 in 11 games).
He has points in four of five home games to date. Coincidentally, those are the four games on
home ice in which the Caps have earned points so far (3-0-1). He is also a minutes-eater, only once in 11
games skating under 20 minutes. In 12
career games against Dallas, Niskanen is 1-5-6, minus-2.
In the end…
The Caps have been a hot mess in their own end over the
first month of the season. They allow
too many goals (3.82 per game, fourth-most in the league), their penalty kill
is iffy (73.8 percent, 24th in the league), and they are still underwater in
shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 (48.46 percent).
Their offense has kept them competitive, but a 3.82 goals per game
scoring offense and a 36.1 percent power play are not likely to be sustainable
over an 82-game season. This is a club
that certainly has the appearance of having lingering effects from the
championship season (and off-season), but that is what November is for, to get
back to business. And there is no better
place to start than with some home cooking.
Capitals 3 – Stars 2
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