The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals take on the Colorado Avalanche at
Pepsi Center in the first of a three-game road swing on Thursday night. Washington will be trying to avoid a third
straight loss for only the second time this season, while the streaking
Avalanche look to make it six wins in a row and nine wins in ten games.
Then and Now…
Thursday will mark the 87th meeting in the
all-time series between the Capitals and the Avalanche, including games against
the Quebec Nordiques before the club moved to Denver in the 1995-1996
season. Washington has a 44-32-1 (nine
ties) record against the Avs in the all-time series, 20-18-0 (five ties) on the
road. Since 2005-2006, the Caps are
12-7-0 against Colorado, 6-3-0 in Denver.
The Caps have won nine of the last 11 meetings in this series, one of
the losses a 6-3 decision in Washington in the team’s only other meeting this
season on October 14th.
Active Leaders vs. Opponent…
Noteworthy Opponents…
These days, the debate over best player in the league
centers, so to speak, on the arguments for and against Connor McDavid and
Sidney Crosby. Among underrated players,
the consensus is that Aleksander Barkov holds that title.
But if there is an underrated player in the conversation of best player in the
league, Nathan MacKinnon might get more than a few votes. The first overall pick of the 2013 Entry
Draft took a little while to take his place among the best in the game, failing
to match his rookie numbers of 24 goals and 63 points in any of his next three
seasons, but over the last three seasons he has made up for lost time. He was one of only four players in the league
to finish each of the previous two seasons with 90 or more points (McDavid,
Nikita Kucherov, and Blake Wheeler were the others), and with 78 points in 55 games
this season (third in the league in points per game), he is on a pace to finish
the season with a career-high 116 points.
He already has 32 goals, making him one of five players to post 30 or
more goals in each of the last three seasons (McDavid, Alex Ovechkin, Auston
Matthews, and David Pastrnak are the others).
He and Kucherov are the only players in the league who, over the last
three seasons, combined for a total of at least 100 goals, at least 250 points,
and a plus-minus of plus-30 or better.
MacKinnon has not gone consecutive games without a point
since being blanked in Games 14 and 15 for the Avs in early November. He has gone 40 games since without
consecutive games without a point, going 24-36-60 since then, his point total
tied with Artemi Panarin and Leon Draisaitl for most in the league in that
span. He goes into this contest carrying
a five-game points streak and is 8-12-20 in 15 games since the start of the new
year, five of those games being multi-point efforts on home ice, including his
last three games at Pepsi Center.
MacKinnon is 6-9-15, plus-4, in 12 career games against the Caps.
At this point the Calder Trophy race for top rookie in the
league appears to be a two-defenseman race – Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver
Canucks and Cale Makar of the Avalanche.
Hughes has more points (44 to 42), while Makar has more goals (12 to
8). Makar has the better plus-minus
rating (plus-10 to minus-4), while Hughes has more power play points (21 to
17). Hughes has the only overtime goal
scored by a rookie defenseman this season, but Makar leads all rookie
defensemen in game-winning goals (four, tied with Dallas’ Denis Gurianov for
the overall lead among rookie skaters).
And it is not as if Makar’s contributions have been “empty calories.” The Avs are 9-1-0 in the ten games in which
he has goals, 24-6-1 in the 31 games in which he has points. On the other hand, he might still be that
young defenseman whose ice time needs to be regulated. His high ice time volumes in games might be
the product of trying to get him, and his offensive gifts, on the ice in games
in which the Avs trail, but the team is still 4-8-3 in the 15 games in which he
skated at least 22 minutes.
Makar has been productive of late, having a four-game point
streak (1-4-5) snapped in his last game when the Avs shutout Ottawa, 3-0, on
Tuesday. Over his last 11 games overall he
is 3-7-10, and in his last nine games on home ice he is 3-5-8. In his only career appearance against the
Caps, last October, he had an assist and was plus-1.
Philipp Grubauer has had a bit of an uneven season in his
second year with Colorado after spending his first six seasons with the
Caps. So far this season, he has three
winning streaks of at least three games and two losing streaks of at least
three games. It is not unlike his
running record last season, at least on the winning side, when he posted three
streaks of three wins or more. As it is,
in just his second season with the club Grubauer is within striking distance of
getting into the top-ten in wins in franchise history, his 36 wins to date
being six short of Jose Theodore (42) for tenth place on the franchise career
win list. Among 19 goalies in franchise history to appear in 50 or more games,
he is fifth in goals against average (2.64) and second in save percentage
(.916, to Patrick Roy’s .918). With five
shutouts in two seasons in Colorado, he needs only two more to tie Craig
Anderson for fifth place on the all-time franchise list. If he gets the call against the Caps on
Thursday and does not get pulled early, he will become the 13th
goalie in franchise history to log at least 4,000 minutes.
Grubauer brings a four-game winning streak into this
contest, stopping 113 of 116 shots (.974 save percentage) and shutting out the
Ottawa Senators in his last appearance on Tuesday. He has been hot on home ice as well, going
4-0-1 in his last five appearances, stopping 133 of 142 shots (.937) and posting
shutouts over San Jose and Ottawa.
Grubauer is 1-0-1, 3.01, .902 in two career appearances against the
Caps.
1. Only three teams
have scored five or more goals on more occasions overall than Colorado (15) –
Vancouver (19), Florida (18), and the Caps (18). Oddly enough, they have done it only six
times at home, tied for 12th-most frequent in the league.
2. The Avs do not
lack for power play chances. The have
had 191 man advantages so far this season, second only to Vancouver (205).
3. Colorado applies
pressure early. Their 61 first period goals rank second in the league (Edmonton
has 62), and their 80 second period goals are most in the league.
4. The Avalanche have
scored first 35 times in 55 games. No
team has scored first more often (Boston also has done so 35 times). Their 25 wins when scoring first are tied
with Tampa Bay for most in the league.
However, they are just 10-3-4 when scoring first on home ice, their .588
winning percentage ranking 25th.
5. How to beat the
Avalanche? Get them in a close game. They have only one one-goal win this season on
home ice, tied for fewest in the league with Arizona. Then again, they have only six one-goal
decisions in 26 home games, fewest in the league. Their 1-1-4 record in
one-goal decisions on home ice is the second worst, by winning percentage
(.167). Only Arizona is worse
(1-4-4/.111).
1. No team has spent
more time on ice per game shorthanded overall than the Caps (6:01).
2. Washington has
nine one-goal wins on the road this season, third-most in the league (Calgary
and Tampa Bay have ten apiece). Their .750
winning percentage in one-goal games on the road (9-2-1) ranks fourth.
3. The Caps’ 13 wins
when scoring first on the road are second-most in the league (Colorado: 15),
and their winning percentage of .929 (13-1-0) is best in the league.
4. The Caps are one
of four teams in the league with perfect records when leading after one period on
the road (Pittsburgh, Colorado, and the New York Islanders are the others), and
the Caps have the most wins in the group (9-0-0).
5. Washington closes
road games with a rush. Their 41 third
period goals in road games are most in the league, as is their plus-9 third
period goal differential on the road.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Colorado: Andre Burakovsky
He scored a goal on the fourth shift of his first game as a
Washington Capital. Yes, it was in a 2-1
Gimmick loss to the Montreal Canadiens in October 2014, but for Andre
Burakovsky it was a hopeful signal of good things ahead in his career as a
Capital. However, in five seasons with
the club he showed intermittent flashes of brilliance to go with stretches of
play when he seemed absent on the ice. His last goal as a Capital, the
first goal just 2:13 into Game 7 against the Carolina Hurricanes in last
spring’s 4-3 overtime elimination at the hands of the Hurricanes, seemed just a
bit too much on point as a symbol of his career in Washington – early promise
but more than a bit disappointing in the end.
The end of his career in Washington came quietly last June when he was
traded to Colorado for Scott Kosmachuk, a second round pick in the 2020 Entry
Draft and a third round pick in 2020 Entry Draft.
Sometimes, a change of scenery does a player good, and it
has been the case for Burakovsky, who just celebrated his 25th birthday last
Sunday. His 17 goals in 52 games this
season have already matched his career high, set in 79 games in his sophomore
season in Washington in 2015-2016. His
41 points are already a career best, topping the 38 points he had with the Caps
in that 2015-2016 season. He has taken
on a bigger role in Colorado, averaging a career high 14:47 in ice time per
game, and with the additional ice time has come a more assertive (1.79 shots
per game, a career high) and more efficient game (18.3 percent shooting,
another career high).
What Burakovsky has not done lately, conjuring up memories
of his time with the Caps, is score at home.
He has two goals on home ice in his last 15 games at Pepsi Center, both
in a 5-3 win over the St. Louis Blues on January 18th. The slump is part of a broader home-road
split that is contrarian to the usual assumptions. He is 6-12-18, minus-4, at home, but he is
11-12-23-plus-14 in road games this season.
He does have a four-game points streak on home ice coming into this game
and points in six of his last seven games at Pepsi Center. He had an assist and was plus-1 in the Avs’
6-3 win in Washington in October, his only career appearance against the Caps.
Washington: Richard Panik
For a while there, it looked as if Richard Panik would shake
of his early season doldrums (two goals in his first 25 games) and become a
regular third line contributor when he posted three goals in seven games to end
the old year and start the new one.
However, since he scored the game’s first goal in the Caps’ 4-3 win in
Carolina over the Hurricanes on January 3rd, he has only two goals
in his last 14 games, both of them coming in a 5-4 loss to Nashville on January
29th.
Panik has had a difficult first year with the Caps after
signing as an unrestricted free agent last July. One of the big differences between his
performance this season and his performance in recent years is as simple as
shooting the puck. In three seasons
prior to this one, he averaged 1.89 shots per game in 2016-2017, 1.89 shots per
game in 2017-2018, and 1.87 shots per game last season. His shots on goal per game have dropped by
more than a third through 46 games this season (1.20 per game). And although his shooting percentage is
respectable (12.7 percent), he is on a pace to finish with just 11 goals, tying
his career low for goals scored in a season in which he played more than 50
games (11 in 76 games in 2014-2015 with Toronto, his third year in the league).
If there is a ray of hope here, it is that after going his
first 11 road games of the season without a point, Panik is 3-2-5 in his last
ten road contests. Odd Panik fact…. In 21
road games played so far this season, Panik posted a minus rating in a game
only once (minus-1 in a 6-4 win over the New York Islanders on January 18th). Panik is 5-3-8, plus-5, in 14 career games
against Colorado.
In the end…
The Caps have been a Jekyll and Hyde sort of club when it
comes to defense at home and on the road lately. They allowed four or more goals in four of
their last five home games (with a record of 1-4-0) before heading out on this
road trip, while they held opponents to fewer than four goals in four of their last
five games on the road (with a record of 4-1-0).
Going into Colorado and trying to get out with a win against
a team with that much firepower is a challenge, and it will be a bigger one
with one of the Caps’ big guns – Evgeny Kuznetsov – injured. But this is a deep team, when they are
playing well, and Lars Eller has had success when called upon to move up a
line. With these two teams ranked
one-two in scoring offense, it still has the makings of a wild one.
Capitals 6 – Avalanche 5
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