Thursday, November 30, 2006

It's That Time Again . . . The "Old Man's Major Award Award"


Yes, it's that time again. As we approach the end of the month, it is almost time to award the November OMMAA.



This presitigious trophy -- suitable for framing in, say, the picture window of the family home -- is bestowed to that Washington Capital who exhibits the timeless qualities of "The Old Man" -- a unique gift for language, a singular inability to fix anything, a hatred of Bumpus' hounds - or just opponents in general -- a love of turkey, and a singular effort in exhibiting the curmudgeonly, ornery, but loving attributes we attribute to, "The Old Man."

The floor is open to nominations for the first five days following the end of the month. The decisions of The Peerless will be final . . .

"What is a lamp, you nincompoop? It's a Major Award. I won it!"

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Stars, November 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Well, the Caps got off the schneid last time out and . . .

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. . . rode a 48-save performance by Olaf Kolzig to a 5-2 win in Tampa . . .

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. . . but next up are the Dallas Stars, a club that always gives the Caps fits. But before we get to that, we have a special treat. With the league’s teams approaching the one-third point of the season, The Peerless thought it might be time to get a Commissioner’s eye view of the league so far . . . Mr. Commissioner . . .

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Mr. Commissioner? . . .

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Mr. Commissioner??

“WHAT?!”

Mr. Commissioner, we’re interested in your take on the season so far.

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Mr. Commissioner?

“Ok, OK, already! . . . what was the question?”

Your take on the season so far?

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Mr. Commiss–

“It’s great, it’s wonderful, best season ever, blah-blah-blah...”

Mr. Commissioner, I thought we could–

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Mr. Commissioner, what in heaven’s name are you doing?

“Don’t interrupt me, I’m busy . . . Crosby-Fleury-Malkin...(send) . . . Crosby-Fleury-Malkin...(send) . . . “

Well, while the Commissioner stuffs the All-Star Game ballot box, we’ll take a look at what’s up next for the Caps.

At 16-8-0 Dallas is tied for the fifth highest point total in the league. They suffer for being in the same division as Anaheim (tops in points) and San Jose (third). Dallas has not played those clubs often (they are 1-1 against those two so far this year), but they are 15-7 against the rest of the league. They’re doing it in a way familiar to those who have watched that team over the years – they are giving up fewer goals per game than any team in the league (2.13). As one might expect from that result, the Stars are quite effective at even strength (fourth in 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio) and equally effective in killing penalties (fourth at 87.7 percent). Add to that the fact that they are second in the league in shots allowed per game (a minuscule 25.8), and it is clear that teams have to earn what meager offense they can generate against this team. And, if a team does fall behind, the task becomes even more difficult – Dallas leads the league in winning percentage when scoring first.

Looking at the club at the individual level, the team defensive numbers reflect a strength from the inside out – no defenseman has a minus number for the year. It is a group that is solid and deep. Add a three-time Selke winner in Jere Lehtinen, and it is as formidable a defensive group in its parts as it is as a team.

It would be tempting to think of the weak link here as being goaltending, but if anything Marty Turco is a regular season wonder. He can be counted on to have a GAA in the low 2's (or lower) and a save percentage in the .920 range (with a sparse workload in terms of shots). Given that the Stars played the Blackhawks last night, though, one might think Mike Smith will get a turn. Smith, in limited action (six games) has sparkling numbers – 5-1, 1.53, .937. Getting him would not necessarily be a blessing.

As for the former local hero, Jeff Halpern has had what for him is a typically indifferent start – 3-5-8, even, in 23 games (not including the Wednesday game), although he’s been stirring a bit more of late (2-2-4, +1 in his last six).

The Caps, on the other hand, are a club that might be between tendencies. In their six game winless streak they scored only nine goals while giving up 24 (not including a shootout loss). The Caps have given up 33 more goals than have the Stars – 1.38 more per game – while giving up 14.4 more shots per game. Those are significant numbers. 1.38 goals per game on 14.4 shots is a .904 save percentage. If, say, Olaf Kolzig and Marty Turco both save .904 percent of their shots, both have an average game in terms of shots faced, the Caps lose by more than a goal. For the Caps to get the club to overtime, Kolzig would have to save 93.8 percent of the shots he faces (assuming an average game of 36.5 shots). That’s a lot of arithmetic, but the point is that Kolzig has to stand on his head while Turco sits in a rocker to achieve the same result in terms of goals allowed.

But we said they might be between tendencies. They suffered a bump in the road (ok, they spun into a ditch for half a dozen games), but they spread the love around against Tampa – five players scored the five goals – and they withstood a late Tampa charge, thanks largely to Kolzig. Perhaps this is the beginning of a bit of a run. It can’t come at a better time, given the level of competition the Caps will face.

Some numbers of note . . . Alex Ovechkin has scored goals in 12 of his last 19 games – not points, goals (a total of 14 goals). That is at once a remarkably consistent record, and it is a 60-goal pace over 82 games.

The last time Dainius Zubrus won half his face-offs? . . . Veterans Day. He’s gone seven straight games on the sub-50 percent side of the ledger.

Ben Clymer is quietly struggling. Since his splashy return to forward against Philadelphia on November 4th, he has not been on the plus side of the ledger (-7 in 11 games).

Matt Pettinger has points in eight of his last 11 games (4-5-9).

Since laying an egg against Ottawa, Olaf Kolzig has saved 245 of 262 shots (93.5 percent) in seven games.

This is likely to be an aesthetically ugly game to watch. Dallas grinds out wins, and the Caps are a team hard to predict as to which one will appear. "GAL LODI" is going to have to be the recipe again – “get a lead” . . . “let Olie do it.” The Caps almost have to approach this as a road game, keeping things simple and taking advantage of what few opportunities they are likely to get. Dallas has been in a feast-or-famine stretch lately, scoring at least four goals in their last seven games but getting only a single marker in each of the others (including the 2-1 loss to Chicago Wednesday, which ended as The Peerless wrote this). Given how Kolzig has played lately and Ovechkin’s consistency in goal scoring, a couple of markers could do the trick . . .

Caps 2 – Stars 1.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Lightning

Well, it seems that the Caps’ formula for winning can be summed up with this acronym:

"GAL LODI"

“Get a Lead” . . . “Let Olie Do It.”

Last night, the Caps withstood an early storm by the Tampa Bay Lightning, made them pay for letting the Caps off the hook by getting a late first-of-game goal from Kris Beech in the first period, pounded three pucks into the back of the net in the second to take a 4-0 lead (and seemingly end the competitive portion of the game), then turned the game over to Kolzig in the third (25 shots on net faced, two goals surrendered – not a bad game total).

The Peerless will tell himself all morning that it’s not “how,” it’s “how many” – wins that is, and this one is nice, given that it: a) ends a six-game winless streak, and b) comes at the expense of a division opponent on their ice.

But let’s not kid ourselves, either. But for the rank ineptitude of the Tampa power play (nothing to show for seven opportunities and 24 total shots on goal with the man-advantage) and the Comanecian gymnastics of Kolzig in the nets (saving 48 of 50 shots on goal), this would have been an ugly game for a Caps fan to endure.

The number that sticks in The Peerless’ head this morning is this one . . .

81

That represents the total of shots on goal, missed shots, and shots blocked by Capitals. That’s approximately one shot sent toward the net every 45 seconds. And let’s put that number in further perspective. Last night, the Milwaukee Bucks scored more points in an NBA game than any other team – 109. In doing so, they took 85 shots from the floor (we don’t include free throws for this comparison, since the clock is stopped for those instances). The Tampa effort was as close to a run-and-gun NBA game as you’re likely to find. With apologies to Cristobal Huet and Roberto Luongo – both of whom are goaltenders who had fine games last night – neither was better than Olaf Kolzig in earning their respective three-star recognition from NHL.com.

But what about the good stuff? Well, there was, actually, and not just the win. The Caps had five different players score the five goals – Beech, Boyd Gordon (shorthanded), Alexander Semin, Chris Clark, and an empty-netter by Alexander Ovechkin. That’s two from the first line and three from . . . SOMEWHERE ELSE!

Then there are the even strength goals. In the six-game slide, the Caps had two of that sort. Mites score more at the intermission of one game. The Caps had four even-strength tallies in this one (including the Ovechkin empty-netter).

And there is John Erskine. Plus-three and a swat at everyone’s favorite wind-up doll, Martin St. Louis.

But if The Peerless had to give a slice o’ pie to one Cap last night, it would have been Matt Pettinger. As time goes by, he gives more indication that his coming-out last year was not fluke. He had the primary assists on each of the Caps first two goals last night – one in his role as the right wing (the “Chris-Clark-lite” role) on the second line, the other in a penalty killing situation. He was plus-three for the night and played with a consistent level of intensity.

But heavens to Murgatroid . . . what a night for Kolzig. 48 saves on 50 shots (.960 save percentage), 25 shots faced in the last period (13 of those from the big three of St. Louis, Brad Richards, and Vincent Levcavalier), 24 power play shots faced.

Sometimes, you lose games you scratch your head and ask, “how?” You play at a high effort level, you get a ton of chances, and you end up losing the bounces of the puck that night. Then there are those games you have no business winning. You get outshot, outchanced, outplayed. But you take advantage of just about every opportunity you get, and you get a standout performance from the goalie. It isn’t pretty, but this isn’t the Beauty Contest System that is college football, either. Two points is granted for every win, no matter how it looks. And two points looks mighty fine this morning.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps versus Lightning, November 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! . . .

OK, so Turkey Day (or Turkey Week, given the last three gobblers the Caps horked up) is over. Time to return to serious business, and it doesn’t get any more serious than the next five games for the –

“Business? . . . Nobody knows business like me.”

The Donald? . . . Don’t you have people to fire?

“Funny . . . maybe you should do stand up at one of my casinos.”

Really, though . . . it’s a surprise to see you here for a Caps game.

“I’m here to see that Ovechkin kid. I want to hire that kid – he’s a natural. He could sell Flyer jerseys to a Penguin fan. He could sell Melrose on shaving his head.”

Well, I think he’s got some hockey to play first . . .

“Oh, sure, sure. But watching him, it just makes me want to buy a team. I can just see the kid with ‘TRUMP’ on his jersey.”

His name is “Ovechkin.”

“The name of the team, you moron . . . The Washington Trump.”

There’s already an owner here.

“Really . . . know any teams for sale?“

Sorry . . . but maybe you could pry that football team loose from the boy wonder over in Ashburn.

“Ashburn? . . . sounds like the feeling Redskin fans have sitting on their couches watching them every Sunday.”

Hmm . . . maybe you should do stand up.

“Sure . . . well, I gotta go . . . you seen Fraser anywhere? He was going to talk to me about hair care . . . “

As for the game, Tampa Bay – the very picture of mediocrity over the first quarter of the season -- appears to have found its stride of late. The Bolts are on a three-game winning streak, beating Florida, Atlanta (in overtime), and Ottawa. Of special note to Caps fans, Martin St. Louis is 2-5-7, +4 in those three games. As if it bears noting, given his career numbers against the Caps (9-13-22 in 29 regular season games), he will be one to watch closely.

Brad Richards, who got off to somewhat of a slow start, has three goals in these last three games and is winning almost two-thirds of his draws (34 of 52).

Another player to watch, if only out of curiosity, is Nikita Alexeev. After scoring two goals in a win over the Caps on October 21st (including the game winner), he has only three goals in 16 games since.

As a team, Tampa has done the right things mostly right in their three game streak. Special teams . . . the power play is 4-14 (28.6 percent), while the Lightning have only found themselves shorthanded four times in their last two games (yielding no power play goals). The big guys are scoring (St. Louis and Richards have five of the Lightning’s last 12 goals, while defenseman Dan Boyle has chipped in three of his own). Johan Holmqvist has provided solid goaltending (3-0, 2.32, .916 in the three game winning streak).

If there is a weakness to be exploited, it is Tampa Bay’s penalty killing. While they have killed off all four of their man-short situations in the last two games, they remain last in the NHL in penalty killing (73.8 percent). If the Caps are going to get well on the power play (9-for-60 in their last 11 games), it might be against this team.

But it isn’t just the power play that is suffering lately. The Caps can’t score even strength goals . . . well, at all. In the six game winless skid, the Caps have scored a total of nine goals – six on the power play, one shorthanded, and two at even strength (both by Jakub Klepis). The possibility of having Alexander Semin return to the lineup might relieve some of the pressure off of the top line (Ovechkin is the only member of the top line with any goals in the last five games).

While scoring is clearly a problem, it isn’t the only one, and it might be a consequence of other problems. For instance, the Caps have lost the faceoff battle in each of the games on this winless slide and managed to win only 44 percent of their draws. Hard to score when you don’t have the puck. The Caps have surrendered the first goal in five of the six games. Hard to mount a lot of offense when you’re always pushing uphill against the scoreboard. Even goaltending – thus far a strength of the club – has hit a bad stretch. While it isn’t fair to blame Olaf Kolzig or Brent Johnson for every puck that skips past them, they haven’t been especially sharp in these last several games, either.

The four weeks between the holidays is not a stretch where you can win a playoff spot, but you can lose one here. And for the Caps, the schedule is quite daunting in terms of quality of opponent. The next five will be especially difficult, starting tonight. One would think the club will not lack for focus. The Caps played a better game against the Islanders than in any of the five preceding games, and that is how one climbs out of a bad streak. With that in mind . . .

Caps 4 – Lightning 3, in overtime.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

The (Lost) Weekend After

WTF?!

You go away for a few days and the Caps end up 0-3, get outscored 15-4, rack up 124 minutes in penalties, win only 42 percent of their faceoffs, give away the puck 47 times (but take it away only 29 times themselves), manage to convert 17.6 percent of their power plays while killing only 70.6 percent of the disadvantages . . . even the fights we caught on YouTube were boring.

WTFU!

As in . . . “wake the f**k up!

It would be hard to find anything coming out of the numbers of the last three games that could be considered good. These three games are a wake up call. Instead of 8-6-6 and on the inside of the playoff race, the Caps are now 8-9-6 and within sniffing distance of last in the conference (don’t look now, but Philly only has one fewer win than do the Caps).

What the heck went wrong? Well, The Peerless didn’t see any of these three games (being out of town and all), but some things do jump out of the numbers . . .

Alex Ovechkin had two goals, the rest of the club had . . . two goals (Pettinger, Klepis). Alexander Semin was out, Dainius Zubrus perhaps should have been (he’s got to be playing hurt – he has one point and is -8 for the last four games he’s dressed). It’s not as if they’re getting much non-first line production anyway (save for Matt Pettinger). No player who dressed for all three games has more plus than minus games, indicative of a team-wide meltdown.

By period, the problem – if not the solution – is pretty stark. The Caps were outscored 3-2 in the first period of these three games and by 3-1 in the third. But they were outscored 9-1 in the second period of these games. This has been a recurring problem this year. When they play themselves out of games, more often it seems than not, it is in the middle frame.

The Caps are 0-4-2 in their last six games. Growing teams go through this. One of the things such a team has to learn is how to stop the bleeding. The trouble is, things do not break in the Caps’ favor so far as the schedule goes the next couple of weeks. They go to Tampa (6-3-1 in their last 10), then home to Dallas (always a tough opponent for the Caps), home to Buffalo (‘nuff said), home to Ottawa (6-4 since their OT loss to the Caps), and home to Anaheim (two regulation losses this year). The combined record of these five teams is 73-32-10 . . .

Good luck, boys.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps versus Thrashers, November 22nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! . . . in this, the last installment before the holiday.

Tonight, the Caps take to home ice once more to host the Atlanta Thr—

“BAM!”

Well, well, it’s the man, himself . . . Emeril, shouldn’t you be thick in the middle of preparing Thanksgiving goodies?

“I have a little secret . . . I don’t cook anymore. I just shout, ‘BAM!’, throw a spice or two on top, and let others do the cooking . . . I HATE cooking!”

What would you rather be doing?

“Well, I’ve always dreamed of being a hockey player . . . “

Ah, you grew up in Fall River, Massachusetts, so it figures . . .

“Yeah, I actually started shouting ‘BAM!’ when I saw Bobby Orr checking guys into the boards.”

Who knew? . . . so, do you have a recipe for a Caps win tonight?

“Hey, knock it off with the cooking references . . . didn’t I tell you I HATE cooking??”

Uh . . . ok, so what brings you to DC, anyway?

“I wanted to see a different bird cooked –wink wink—“

Uh, didn’t you say . . .

“yeah, yeah . . . I can’t help it.”

So, what do you see as the keys to the game?

“Well, the Thrashers have just the right combination of meat on the blue line with Andy Sutton, Vitaly Vishnevski, Garnet Exelby, and Greg DeVries . . . and a spicy combination of Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Hossa, and Vyacheslav (hey, ya like the way I said that?) Kozlov . . . but the ‘essence’ is Jon Sim. He really is the ingredient always seems to come through when they play the Caps.”

Good point . . . Sim is 10-5-15, +6 in 17 career games against the Caps. But Kovalchuk . . . 13-17-30, +11 in 25 games against the Caps in his career.

“Amazing, considering he’s -70 against the rest of the league in his career. But they seem to have goalie problems – Kari Lehtonen is 1-4 in his last six appearances and got yanked in his last outing against Dallas after giving up three goals on seven shots. Johan Hedberg had a fine game against Montreal last time out in a loss, and he has a pretty good record against the Caps going back to his Pittsburgh days.”

You have a pretty amazing command of the stats.

“Hey, like I told ya, I don’t cook anymore . . . I just play one on TV!”

As for the Caps, they’ve been on the short end of three one-goal games against Atlanta so far this year. They’ve experienced each kind of loss – regulation, overtime, and shootout. If the stars are aligned, they have filled that scorecard out and will now experience one of the three types of wins. To do that, the Caps are going to have to prevent the usual suspects – Kovalchuk and Sim – from getting into any kind of offensive rhythm. That means controlling the puck (to reduce the number of shots their goalie – presumably Olaf Kolzig – has to face) and making them – especially their forwards -- play defense. In turn, that will mean smart decisions on the part of defensemen getting out of their own end and the ability to win faceoffs (the Caps have been on the short end in two of the three games against Atlanta this year).

The Caps have stubbed their toe in recent games – 0-1-2 in their last three. This is a chance to enjoy the Thursday turkey rather than choke on dry stuffing, courtesy of Atlanta stuffing goals in the Capitals’ net. It’s a division game, and it’s a chance to climb back into the top eight and close the distance with Atlanta for the division lead.

Caps 5 – Thrashers 3


Happy Holidays, Hockey Fans!!!

Compering the Tens -- Through 20 Games . . . Part IV, The Goaltenders

Finally, the Goaltenders . . .

Olaf Kolzig:

First ten games: 3-2-2, 3.24, .910
Second ten games: 3-2-1, 2.72, .926

With apologies to Alexander Ovechkin, as goes Kolzig, so go the Caps. He isn’t the minutes eater he was earlier in his career (he’s 19th in time on ice among goalies this year), but he’s still the clear number one, the rock around which this team functions. With the loud exception of one game against Ottawa, he’s played well – spectacularly in many cases. He’s actually facing more shots-per-60 minutes in the second ten games (36.6) than in his first ten (36.1). He’s playing fewer minutes, perhaps, but he’s spending a lot of that time folding and unfolding into and out of his butterfly. The Peerless does not see this as a sustainable set of events.

Brent Johnson:

First ten games: 0-1-2, 2.53, .926
Second ten games: 2-1-1, 2.86, .918

Johnson has been more than a bargain ($575,000) as the second goaltender. One could argue he’s had only one sub-par performance among his seven appearances this year (at Carolina when he allowed five goals on 39 shots). If anything, he’s been unlucky. A goalie who saves more than 92 percent of the shots he faces should have more than two wins in seven appearances. He plays like a man who is comfortable in his current role, and who enjoys and makes the most of the chances he gets. He’s facing a slightly lower workload than Kolzig (34.2 shots-per-60 minutes in the first ten, 34.8-per-60 minutes in the second ten), but it’s still a heavy workload. He gets about a third of the total minutes, which seems about right for both goalies.

Overall:

You’d be hard pressed to find a goaltender tandem playing better than this pair. It has been the strength of the team in the first quarter of the season. It is their facing a ton of rubber that has their goals-against higher than it should be. The Peerless would argue that had their performances been more pedestrian, the Caps might be in Flyerland in the standings. The overall grade:

A

Comparing the Tens -- Through 20 Games . . . Part III, The Defensemen

In our next installment . . . the defensemen.

Brian Pothier:

First ten games 0-9-9, +2
Second ten games: 0-2-2, -2

Pothier has been the Caps’ everydefenseman – on the ice at even strength, on for the power play, killing penalties. He plays top minutes. He is consistent. If anything, he’s getting more work – almost 28 minutes a game in the second ten versus a little over 27 in the first ten. He’s sending the puck to the net a bit more – 19 shots versus 14, 14 missed shots versus 11. But he has less to show for it on the offensive ledger – two assists versus nine (no goals scored as yet). All in all, he’s done just about all that could reasonably be been asked of him. He isn’t an especially physical player, and he doesn’t have a booming shot, so to expect much in either of those areas is a stretch. But he’s been effective in his role.

John Erskine:

First ten games: 0-0-0, even (did not play)
Second ten games: 0-0-0, -2

First of all, The Peerless likes what Erskine brings. He plays within himself and has more than a menacing personality. But he’s also a victim of low expectations, too. The Peerless will wager that fans fairly expected him to be dragging his knuckles on the ice the first time he took the ice. When he didn’t – when he could skate upright (as opposed to, say, a Garret Stroshein) – he was pleasantly received. Actually, though, given that he’s getting more than 16 minutes a game in the six games he’s played (virtually the same as Jamie Heward), he has been pretty effective. The question, though, is – can he keep it up?

Jamie Heward:

First ten games: 2-2-4, +2
Second ten games: 0-2-2, +3

Heward is another consistent guy out there. He’ll get time in every situation – even strength, power play, penalty kill – and he’ll provide a reliably decent effort in just about every game with results the club can count on. He might be defined by the term, “journeyman,” but that isn’t an insult to the player. No single number in either ten-game stretch or in total sticks out, and that’s a reflection of the kind of player and performance he’s contributed so far.

Shaone Morrisonn:

First ten games: 0-0-0, +3
Second ten games: 1-4-5, -1

He’s the best defenseman on this club right now. More to the point, he is the one who will be out there to match up against the opposition’s most dangerous scorer. That he’d be a plus player is evidence that he’s developing nicely. He isn’t a finished product by any means, but there isn’t any reason to conclude he won’t continue to improve. If anything, he’s become more assertive in his last ten games at both ends of the ice – 9 total shots on goal in the second ten versus five in the first ten (he’s got more missed shots, too), 15 hits versus nine. But he did record the club’s first fighting major in those first ten games (well, the tenth).

Ben Clymer:

First ten games: 0-2-2, -2
Second ten games: 0-0-0, -3 (moved to forward after game 12)

The Great Experiment . . . well, The Peerless isn’t sure Dr. Frankenstein got it right the first time, either. Clymer had the skating part down – a premium in the way the game is played nowadays – but appeared not to be able to make decisions quickly enough in this role. His -5 as a defenseman remains the worst plus-minus among defensemen on the club (tied with Steve Eminger).

Steve Eminger:

First ten games: 0-1-1, -5
Second ten games: 0-2-2, even

Eminger seems to have inherited the Ivan Majesky Fan Abuse mantle this year. Few have anything good to say about him. OK, so The Peerless will. Eminger appears to have been assigned a somewhat different role on this year’s club – less the “all-around” defenseman and more of a stay-at-home type. Different responsibilities, different decision making. And to start the year, he was slow in catching on. But, having been freed of some of the defensive defenseman rules (or, put another way, paired with Erskine in many situations), his performance has improved. In the first ten games, he had five “minus” games. In the last ten, one (although giving him a seat for the first two in this second stretch seems to have focused his attention, too). His problem might be that he suffers in comparison to Morrisonn, who has played almost the identical number of career games.

Bryan Muir:

First ten games: 0-0-0, +1
Second ten games: 0-1-1, +2

If Eminger has the Majesky Mantle, Muir has the Mathieu Biron Boo Bird banner draped across his jersey. Fans seem to have little use for this guy, too. This is a guy who played (albeit sparingly) for a Stanley Cup winner. He has one “minus” game in the ten he’s played this year. He contributes little offense when he’s out there (he’s only credited with four shots on goal), but he isn’t quite the slug some fans think, either. His mistakes (and this goes for Eminger, too) stand out, because folks are looking for and expecting them. If the Caps were a contender or further along in their rebuild, he’s probably no longer on the roster (this is probably the Jeff Schultz position next year). But The Peerless scrtaches his head at the abuse heaped upon this guy.

Mike Green:

First ten games: 2-1-3, +2
Second ten games: 0-2-2, +3

For a guy who just turned 21 this season and came into the season with less than 20 games of NHL experience, he’s had a really nice start. It might be youth more than anything, but at the moment he has the “offensive defenseman” role. He gets almost no penalty killing time (a total of a little less than three minutes so far this season), but gets significant power play time (more than three and a half minutes per game thus far). In that sense, you’d wish his numbers were better, but then it would be forgetting just where this youngster is on the development ladder. He plays beyond his years.

Overall:

It would be hard to pin any defenseman here with the “short of expectations” label. Even Steve Eminger has brought his game along in the last ten game stretch. As a group – especially the youngsters Morrisonn, Green, and Eminger – they’ve played pretty well. That is not to say there aren’t shortcomings. There is that matter of the shots allowed level. While that might be as much a problem for the forwards, the defensemen (probably as a function of their youth) haven’t displayed much in terms of the little tricks and devices to clear the puck and prevent multiple shots. Also, as a group they sometimes have difficulty getting the puck moving out of the Caps’ zone, which just tilts the ice toward their goal and gives the opposition more opportunities. That’s both a team and individual problem that needs to improve. The overall grade:

B

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Comparing the Tens -- Through 20 Games . . . Part II, The Forwards

We looked at the team in the last installment, now it’s time to look at individuals. First, the forwards:

Alexander Ovechkin:

First ten games: 6-4-10, -3
Second ten games: 7-6-13, +2

It is a measure of the player that his first ten games could be considered a “slow” start (he was 6-5-11, +1 in his first ten last year). The trouble with that first ten games is the first game in that stretch. Putting Richard Zednik on that line might have looked like a good idea on paper, but in real time . . . ugh. One might note that in Ovechkin’s second ten games last year he was “only” 9-1-10, -4. The point we are torturing before getting to it is that that youngster is remarkable consistent . . . wind him up, watch him get 10-15 points every ten games. He did it last year, he’s up to the same hijinks this year. But here is the money number – three. He’s had the game winning goal in three of the Caps’ five wins in the second ten games (he has four game-winners overall). His goals aren’t the stat-padding kind.

Dainius Zubrus:

First ten games: 5-3-8, -2
Second ten games: 7-3-10, +1

The Peerless isn’t sure if this is a matter of his really finding a comfort zone with Ovechkin or if it’s a matter of “contract year.” He was 8-14-22 in his last 20 games last year, so compare that with his 12-6-18 in his first 20 this year. Maybe “late bloomer” is the term we’re looking for. There is one statistic for Zubrus that causes some head-scratching, even given the subjectivity of it – hits. He was credited with 17 in his first ten games (15 in his first five), six in the last ten. There is also his faceoff percentage – 50.3 percent in his first ten, 48.3 in his last ten. Given that his style is to use his size and strength as leverage in many situations, these hit and faceoff numbers might serve as an indicator that he’s been playing nicked – that he’s got some lingering knee problems that he’s been trying to play through.

Matt Bradley:

First ten games: 2-2-4, +2
Second ten games: 0-3-3, 0

Here is your odd stat for Bradley . . . two goals on nine shots in the first ten games (actually eight, he missed the first two), none on 20 shots in the last ten.

Boyd Gordon:

First ten games: 0-0-0, -1
Second ten games: 1-3-4, +2

OK, he played only one of the first ten games. While his scoring doesn’t jump off the sheet, he is winning 53.8 percent of his draws. He has been remarkably disciplined with the puck, too . . . he’s been credited with nine takeaways and only two giveaways. He doesn’t get a ton of ice time – about eleven and a half minutes a game – and the puck probably doesn’t spend much time on his stick when he is out there, but anytime you can point to a ratio like this, it’s a plus.

Brian Sutherby:

First ten games: 1-3-4, +3
Second ten games: 0-2-2, -2

He centers the line that will face the opponents’ top line more often than not, so you’d think he would be a good bellweather indicator of how the club is going. So, if the Caps are better in the second ten than the first ten, what’s up with his numbers? Well, if you look at them with Bradley’s, the third line hasn’t chipped in as much offense in the last ten games (only Ben Clymer’s two goals in his first game back as a forward).

Chris Clark:

First ten games: 3-6-9, +3
Second ten games: 2-5-7, +5

OK, he’s not the prototypical right wing. He is not a pure scorer. But the Caps are very much a “left-handed” team with Ovechkin and Alexander Semin on the left side to assume a heavy scoring role. His role has been to go get the puck and let Zubrus and Ovechkin do what they do. But he’s on a pace for 23-59-72. After 18 games last year (he’s missed the last two this year), he was 3-4-7. 5-11-16 looks a lot better. Now, you’re odd number . . . 41.3. That’s his faceoff winning percentage – he’s taken 30 draws in 18 games. That strikes The Peerless as a rather high number for a winger to be taking.

Matt Pettinger:

First ten games: 0-2-2, +1
Second ten games: 4-1-5, -2

Another one who missed substantial time to start the year (seven games). Since then, he’s been scoring goals at a 25-a-year rate. He’s getting second line minutes (about 18 a game over the last ten games), and he’s settled into a pace that could have him eclipse last year’s goal totals, even with the early time he missed.

Richard Zednik:

First ten games: 0-3-3, -5
Second ten games: 3-4-7, +1

His timing was awful. First, he gets out to a rocky start, raising questions of whether he was worth the effort to sign. Then, he gets a couple of goals and a couple of assists over a couple of games and gets hurt. He seems to be picking up where he left off, though, going 1-2-2 in his last two games since coming back. That second ten game line comes with only four games having been played.

Brooks Laich:

First ten games: 0-0-0, -4
Second ten games: 0-0-0, -3

I don’t know that there is a more disappointing player in the early going, which is really a shame given that he had a pretty decent season last year (7-14-21 in 73 games). The Peerless though he might be in a position to have a season similar to (if not of the magnitude of) Matt Pettinger last year – a substantial jump up in production. Instead, he’s taken a seat in the stands for eight of the last 12 games. Being -7 and winning less than 40 percent of his draws isn’t helping matters, either. One clings to the fact that last year after he played 12 games, he was a similar 2-1-3, -7 and hadn’t had a plus game yet. Perhaps it’s a slow start . . . that’s the branch we’ll cling to for the moment.

Rico Fata:

First ten games: 1-1-2, +3
Second ten games: gone

Fata did not play poorly in his ten games. Neither did he play especially well. What he did was give little evidence that he was going to be more than he had been – a player who can skate really, really fast and really, really can’t finish. No points in his last eight games probably sealed the evaluation.

Kris Beech:

First ten games: 1-5-6, +3
Second ten games: 0-1-1, even

The second line center position was there for the taking for someone willing to grab it by the throat and make it theirs. Beech was the favorite in a weak field, and he didn’t really do much to cement that role as his. The one area in which he shined – faceoffs – took a dip as time went on as well. After going 50-percent or better in draws in his first seven games, he’s been 50-percent or better in three of his last six. What else has tapered off is hits – a subjective measure, but perhaps an indicator of the urgency with which he does (and needs) to play. 12 credited in the first seven games, five in the last six. His game just doesn’t seem to have the sense of urgency it needs.

Ben Clymer:

First ten games: 0-0-0, 0 (he was playing defense)
Second ten games: 2-1-3, -2 (in eight games at forward)

Well, this is the kind of club you can have an experiment of playing a former defenseman, then turned forward, back on defense. You wouldn’t be as tempted to do it with a Cup contender. The experiment didn’t work, but it really can’t be pegged as a major reason for any Caps shortcomings early. Now that Clymer has been reunited with Bradley and Sutherby on the CBS line, things have a more normal look to them. He’s not getting the minutes he has as a defenseman (less than 14 minutes as as forward versus 19 a game as a defenseman), but he’s been more aggressive (14 hits versus five, 12 PIMs versus six).

Alexander Semin:

First ten games: 8-4-12, +1
Second ten games: 0-5-5, -1

Goal scorers are streaky. Peter Bondra certainly was that way for more than a decade with the Caps. Semin likely will be little different. But to dry up entirely in his last 12 games played . . . now he’s on IR. Here is your odd Semin number – six. He scored goals in six games, in which he also recorded six of his total ten hits. In 13 other games, he has a total of four hits. Chicken . . . egg?

Jakub Klepis:

First ten games: 0-0-0, even
Second ten games: 1-1-2, even

OK, if Beech won’t grab the second line center job by the throat, will Klepis? Well, not on the basis of the evidence so far. Klepis has the advantage of les history than Beech (conversely, he can be viewed as having more upside – he is less a finished product). Still, there is that gaping hole there. Klepis has a predilection for taking the lazy penalty – 16 minutes in 15 games (Peter Bondra spent an early season a few years back piling up minor penalties like manure in a cow pasture, but he had all those goals, too). The Peerless doesn’t look at Klepis as a lazy player as much as a “tentative” one. He still looks very often like a player who is trying to survive, more than play, a shift.

Tomas Fleischmann:

First ten games: 0-0-0, -1
Second ten games: 0-1-1, even

He had only one game in the first ten, seven in the last ten. He gives evidence of having skills with the puck, but he’s very much feeling his way out there. An offensive player with only nine shots on goal in eight games isn’t showing signs that he’s entirely comfortable out there.

Donald Brashear:

First ten games: 0-1-1, +2
Second ten games: 0-1-1, -2

The Peerless has seen a lot of comments along the lines of, “geez, who knew he’d look that good out there?” Brashear has skills that are confined within the rule book; he is not a liability out there in his limited minutes (which might be the key – he gets about seven and a half a game). That he’s had one fight is perhaps the most surprising number on his record thus far.

Overall:

The Caps are getting decent production from their top line of Ovechkin-Zubrus-Clark (30-27-57, +6 overall). But from there, on offense, the bottom drops out. If you look at the various second line possibilities . . .

Semin-Beech-Zednik: 12-22-34, -1 (total 46 man-games)
Semin-Klepis-Zednik: 12-17-29, -4 (48 man-games)
Semin-Beech-Pettinger: 13-18-31, +2 (45 man-games played)
Semin-Klepis-Pettinger: 13-13-26, -1 (47 man-games played)
Fleischmann-Beech-Pettinger: 5-10-15, +1 (34 man-games played)
Fleischmann-Beech-Zednik: 4-14-18, -2 (35 man-games played)
Fleischmann-Klepis-Pettinger: 5-5-10, -2 (36 man-games played)
Fleischmann-Klepis-Zednik: 4-9-13, -5 (37 man-games played)

. . . things don’t look so good. It looks a lot like a half-point a game coming out of the second line. If you look at all the players in these combinations – Semin, Beech, Zednik, Klepis, Pettinger, and Fleischmann – that’s a grand total of 17 goals, almost half of them from a player who had his last one a month ago today and is now injured. The club is getting nothing out of its second line, and thus makes the Caps that much easier to defend.

The first line gets an A- for its work thus far. It wouldn’t necessarily be the first line you’d have if the Caps were a contender, but it has done everything it could reasonably be asked to do. The others – especially the second line – have come up short . . . far short in some cases. The overall grade for the forwards:

C+

Comparing the Tens – Through Twenty Games . . . Part I, The Team

With apologies to the folks on the official site, I’m of a mind to compare ten-game segments of the season, because I think doing so provides a clearer picture of individual player performance (plus, The Peerless has to do this less often, which appeals to his innate laziness). In the first segment, we’re going to look at the team’s performance over the first ten games versus that of the second . . .

Standings:

First ten games: 3-3-4, 10 points
Second ten games: 5-3-2, 12 points

The object here is to obtain 12 standings points in each ten game split. If you do that and win the odd two games at the end, voila! . . . 100 points. The Caps fell short in the first ten due to an inability to convert shootouts (it’s still a problem), “losing” three points for that reason. The second ten games achieved the goal, but it is those two points sitting at the end of that line – both extra-session losses to Boston (one a shootout, one an overtime loss) – that stick in the craw. On the plus side, the club won at Calgary (a hard place to play), at Philadelphia (breaking a winless streak that dated to the Pleistocene Age), against Ottawa (still at least a good team on paper), against the Rangers (a 100-point team least year), and against Florida (a division opponent).

On balance, standings wise, the second ten has to be considered a success . . . just perhaps not as much as one as it could have been. That shootout loss to Boston, at home, could prove important in the season’s last few games if the club is fighting for a playoff spot.

The Special Teams/Power Play:

First ten games: 9-54 (16.7 percent)
Second ten games: 8-53 (15.1 percent)

The differences aren’t statistically significant. They are consistently mediocre – 17th overall after 20 games. Of those 17 goals, 14 come from three players – Alex Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Alexander Semin. That those three would have 14 power play goals isn’t surprising. That only three other players have any is . . . well, perhaps not surprising, but a source of concern. Here is why . . . San Jose leads the league in power play efficiency. They have 6 goals from three defensemen. The Caps are 17th in the league – they have one goal from a defenseman (Jamie Heward). This is not an argument for a defenseman-based power play; the Caps have too much talent at forward for that. But there isn’t much of a threat from back there at the moment, either. It is very likely a reflection of how green the club is back there. Steve Eminger, Shaone Morrisonn, and Mike Green have 326 games of experience among them – less than full two seasons apiece. One might be looking down the road to see if these fellows get more opportunities and make more of what they get.

The Special Teams/Penalty Kill:

First ten games: 49-61 (80.3 percent)
Second ten games: 45-53 (84.9 percent)

There are several ways to look at this. First, fewer man-disadvantages is better. More than 13 percent fewer over the second ten games is a nice improvement. Still, giving up 5.3 opportunities a game is an area that can stand improvement.

Second, the Caps gave up 0.4 fewer goals per game in the second ten (0.8/game versus 1.2/game). Shaving almost half a goal off the goals against in any area is a plus, and this is a product of the fewer advantages opponents have.

Third, and this reaches back to the power play numbers – differential . . . the differential of power play goals to power play goals allowed in the first ten was -3 (9 for, 12 against).. In the second ten, it was even (8, both for an against). In the second ten, the special teams result allowed the Caps to play more at even strength, which plays toward their strength of being a hard working team that can apply pressure in a forechecking situation (although . . . read below).

Fourth, the Caps are just getting better at killing penalties. Even with the lower number of disadvantages, the Caps are killing off a larger share of what they face. Last year, the Caps killed fewer than 80 percent of the man-disadvantages they had – 28th in the league. That they’d be ranked 17th this morning – and moving up the charts – should be cause for optimism.

Even-Strength:

First ten games: 22 goals scored/20 allowed
Second ten games: 19 goals scored/25 allowed

OK, here’s the deal. This looks worse than it is. Carolina outscored the Caps, 6-0, at even strength in their two games in this stretch. That’s the difference (it might also be the difference in the teams, but that’s a discussion for another time). The Caps are generally competitive with most teams they face when skating even. At this stage of the development, “competitive” beats last year’s “plucky.”

In general:

The club is doing “better than expected.” If Caps fans had been polled in August and asked, would you consider an 8-6-6 mark after 20 games “excellent,” “good,” “fair,” or “poor,” I suspect most of the answers would show up in the “good” category. With that, The Peerless offers his 20-game grade for the team:

B

Sunday, November 19, 2006

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Bruins . . . Again

So . . . you had a hard day at work yesterday. You get a night’s sleep, only to find out the next morning you get into your car to find that it has no first, second, or third gear . . . a spark plug isn’t firing . . . your brakes are iffy.

Hard to get to work, isn’t it?

That’s what the Caps found themselves with last night as they completed the second half of a back-to-back set of games, this one in Boston against the Bruins.

Usually, the Caps’ top line would be Alex Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark. But, with Zubrus out with an upper or lower body injury, and Clark out with dental work, Ovechkin’s first shift was taken with Jakub Klepis centering him and Ben Clymer on the right side. By the time Ovechkin scored the game-tying goal late in the third, it was Klepis centering (having just hopped on in relief of Kris Beech) and Matt Pettinger on that line (Ovechkin scored with he and Pettinger having already been on the ice for almost three consecutive minutes). In between, it was catch as catch can.

The Caps are not a deep team, and to expect: a) a victory (hey, Peerless, you did), b) a victory on the road, c) a victory on the road in the second of back-to-back games, and d) a victory on the road in the second of back-to-back games with two thirds of the top line and a third of the second line out, is a bit of a reach.

Think of it another way . . . of the 12 forwards skating, five (Gordon, Laich, Beech, Klpeis, and Flieschmann) had a total of 347 games of experience apiece, less than a full season on average.

That’s not an excuse, it’s an observation. Meaning, there will be times when the fact that the Caps’ talent will not match whatever potential it has, and as younger guys are thrust into positions of greater responsibility, shortcomings will be clearer to see.

But all that said, the Caps earned a standings point – the second point they should have earned Wednesday night against this club. Klepis scored his first of the year on a fine move in close on Boston goalie Tim Thomas, and Ovechkin one-timed a nice cross-ice feed from Pettinger to tie the game and earn the point. Brent Johnson recorded another solid – if unlucky – performance in relief of Olaf Kolzig, victimized in overtime by the Caps’ inability to clear their own zone and a near hand-pass violation by Glen Murray, who scored the game winner.

We’re at the 20-game mark, and the Caps are 8-6-6 (we’ll have more to say about that in another entry). That six at the end of the line is the number that jumps out (the Caps are 1-6 in overtime/shootout games this year). If they’d have halved those six losses and earned three more standings points, they’d still be in seventh place in the conference this morning (tied with Montreal in wins and points, but Montreal would have a game in hand). But they could be tied with Atlanta for the division lead (if they’d won their two OT/SO games against Atlanta).

What the Caps lack at the moment is an ability to finish (not to mention score a shootout goal). It’s all part of the development. At the moment, though, in the larger scheme of things it’s hard to be disappointed with where this team is at.

Saturday, November 18, 2006

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, November 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Geez, this back-to-back stuff is hard on the fingers typing all this crap. The Peerless is thinking some soothing music is in order . . .

“Dude . . . fire up the iPod!”

Steve? Shouldn’t you be on a plane to Boston?

“Hey, it’s plot development . . . I’m fictionally there.”

Uh, OK . . . you got any Beethoven in there?

“Comin’ right up . . . how about the Eroica?”

Well, sure . . . I thought you guys were into a different sort of music.

“That? . . . oh, that was just for that DC Sports Bog guy’s benefit. We dig this stuff . . . hey, hey, Muirsie, not the von Karajan, the Solti version . . . what are you, nuts?”

“Solti?! . . . geez, Emmer, why go Chicago when you can go Berlin?”

“Hey, hey, hey . . . who put that crap on?!” (oh, geez, here comes Erskine … this could be ugly) “you don’t listen to Beethoven first thing in the morning; where’s the Mozart?”

“MOZART?!?!”

“Yeah . . . a little Die Zauberflöte is just the thing on a quiet morning.”

“Dude . . . Mozart is last week, we need something to wake up.”

“Herrrrrrrrrrrre’s Johnny . . . I got just the thing . . . “ (ok, so now here’s Brent Johnson)

“Geez, Johnny, no . . . we don’t want to hear the Berlioz again. Every time you watch ‘The Shining,’ we have to hear that witches sabbath junk for a week . . . “

While these guys are fighting over who gets control of the iPod, let’s look at tonight’s contest between the Caps and the Bruins in Boston . . .

The Caps come off a couple of disappointments – a 3-2 shootout loss to Boston on Wednesday and a 4-1 loss to Carolina last night, both at home. For this, the boys’ third game in four nights, they head out on the road. It isn’t the stuff of dreams, but it’s a chance to get all ornery and take out the week’s frustrations on what would seem to be an inferior opponent. But the B’s have hit their stride of late, coming into this contest on a three-game winning streak (something the Caps have not accomplished to date this season). Seeing as how the scores in those games were, in order, 4-3, 3-2, and 2-1, it is tempting, given The Peerless’ predilection toward numbers, to predict a 1-0 Bruin win. We’ll get to that later.

In those three games – in which the Bruins scored eight actual hockey goals (and a Bettman special of the shootout variety) – Phil Kessel, Patrice Bergeron, and Glen Murray have potted a pair apiece. Seeing as how those three generally play on three separate lines, one could say they are striking a blow for balance.

The Bruins’ power play certainly hasn’t been the root of their three-game success, not at 2-16 (12.5 percent). And their penalty kill, while an improvement over their still ghastly 75.8 percent for the season (29th) hasn’t been earth-shaking at 82.4 percent in these last three games, either (14-for-17).

They’ve pretty much done it through attention to overall defense and goaltending . . . six goals on 88 shots allowed.

For the Caps, The Peerless has an idea . . . find another sponsor for the power play. This Pepco Energy Services Power Play thing isn’t working. In their last five games, 3-for-28 (10.7 percent), although they have registered a power play goal in each of the last three games.

Here is your stat to ponder . . . Alexander Ovechkin has not been held off the scoresheet in consecutive games this season. He was held without a point last evening (as he was in the last game in Carolina – in games not against Carolina this year, he’s registered a point in 13 of 16 games). He gets to wear Zdeno Chara on his name plate again this evening – a guy Ovechkin often finds difficulty playing against.

So that means . . . who else steps up? In the last ten games, the Caps have scored 26 goals. The top line of Ovechkin-Zubrus-Clark has 15 of those goals. Toss in the four contributed by Matt Pettinger, and what we’re left with is this . . . The other 14 skaters on the team have contributed seven goals . . . in ten games . . . and one goal – one – from a defenseman (Shaone Morrisson).

The lack of goals from defensemen is a bit troubling (five in all this season), but perhaps not surprising. Steve Eminger (none) is young and is probably still in that “learning when to jump into a play” stage. Mike Green, ditto (but he – with two goals – seems a bit further along). That Brian Pother has none so far isn’t as surprising as it might seem at first blush – he’s never scored more than five in a year. But what all this means is that clubs might be inclined to pack themselves in (is it me, of do a lot of shots from Caps forwards end up ricocheting off opponents?). If the Caps can establish a threat of any kind from the blueline, forwards might see a bit more clear ice.

This is one of those games a club has to find a way to grind out. It’s the third game in four nights, on the road, against a team on a bit of a hot streak facing your backup goaltender (assuming Johnson gets the start). Some call that a recipe for disappointment. The Peerless calls it, “made to order.”

Caps 2 – Bruins 1.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. 'Canes

5-0 . . . 4-1.

That, folks, is the difference between knowing how to do a thing and learning how to do a thing.

It serves little use to try to assign “blame” to any player or aspect of the Caps game in the 4-1 whupping they took at the hands of Carolina last night. Suffice it to say, Carolina is better and leave it at that. Carolina has earned – as if a Stanley Cup isn’t enough to demonstrate – their advanced degree in “hockey.” The Caps are still, in many respects, a group of underclassmen.

If it wasn’t the Caps on the other end of the scoreboard, it could be said that it was a treat to watch the ‘Canes play the game they played – patient, efficient, effective. I had the feeling after about ten minutes of the first period that it was just a matter of time. The difference in the teams came down to this – the Caps spent a lot of energy chasing the play, the Hurricanes spent their time letting the play come to them. They owned the puck, they tilted the ice toward Olaf Kolzig, they had an answer for everything the Caps tried.

That’s not to say that the Hurricanes were dominating in the Buffalo beating Philly, 9-1 sense. They weren’t. They played the game they had to play on the road to win – excellent team defense and opportunistic offense. When finally presented with chances – gift wrapped in the form of four power plays in the second – they took advantage, netting two goals in 1:46. Game over, drive safely.

The stats of the night for the Caps, in an odd way, belong to Alex Ovechkin – 18:48 and three. That would be ice time and shots on goal. He had only five shifts in the second, one of those in the last 21 seconds of the period. Hard to make a difference sitting on the bench.

I don’t feel nearly as bad about this loss as I do the shootout loss to Boston, an opponent the Caps should have buried (and frankly, should bury tonight). If Carolina plays at or close to the top of their game, and the Caps do likewise, Carolina is going to win most games. That’s just a fact of life at this stage of the teams’ respective states of development. But the Caps competed. They didn’t play as if in awe of these guys (they outhit them, 24-16, although Carolina isn’t generally a team given to a lot of hitting). John Erskine and Alex Ovechkin led with three hits apiece, but even Richard Zednik got in on the fun with three of his own. But that isn’t much solace when you get only 22 shots on goal, only four of those from your second line (Semin, Beech, Pettinger).

This goes into the category of “lesson given, lesson learned.”

Friday, November 17, 2006

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, November 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

It’s back to divisional play tonight as the Caps host Carolina. The Canes are . . . what’s this? It’s . . . Knute? Knute Rockne? Coach, shouldn’t you be haunting the Notre Dame locker room or painting graffiti on Touchdown Jesus? You have something to say to the boys?

“Well, boys ... I haven't a thing to say . . . played a great game against Boston...all of you.

“Great game.

“I guess we just can't expect to win ‘em all . . . I'm going to tell you something I've kept to myself for years -- None of you ever knew Kip Miller. It was long before your time. But you know what a tradition he is in Washington . . . and the last thing he said to me – ‘Rock,’ he said – ‘sometime, when the team is up against it -- and the breaks are beating the boys -- tell them to go out there with all they got and win just one for the Kipper... I don't know where I'll be then, Rock’, he said – ‘but I'll know about it - and I'll be happy.’

Well . . . there you have it. Tonight, it’s “Win one for the Kipper.” And the boys can do it, even though it will be a tough slog. The Hurricanes are 4-1-1 in their last six games, 6-2-1 in their last nine, starting to show the consistent high level of play befitting a defending Stanley Cup champion. Included in that run is a 5-0 whacking of the Caps last week, but it isn’t as if they’ve spared others their wrath. In these six games, they outscored their opponents, 22-14.

The re-emergence of the Hurricanes is largely a product of the play of two cornerstones – center Rod Brind’Amour and goalie Cam Ward. Brind’Amour has taken the attack on his back in recent games, going 6-9-15, +4 in his last nine contests. He has won a whopping 60.7 percent of his faceoffs this season and leads the team in average ice time with 23:42 of action per game. With apologies to the young Eric Staal (who continues to have a tendency to be a minus player despite good scoring numbers), and the performance of Ray Whitney and Justin Williams so far, as goes Brind’Amour, so goes the ‘Canes’ attack.

But that shouldn’t diminish the recent efforts of Cam Ward at the other end, either. Ward has been the goalie of record in each of the games in this 6-2-1 nine game stretch. He hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s been steady enough – 2.52, .902. But if one looks deeper – past Ward’s numbers -- there is another stat worth noting . . . in Ward’s first nine games (4-4-1, 3.30, .896) he faced 31.7 shots per 60 minutes. In the last nine (6-2-1, 2.52, .902) he’s faced 26.0 shots per 60 minutes. His save percentage is marginally higher in this latest stretch, but facing fewer shots (only once has he faced more than 30 shots – he lost, giving up 6 goals to Buffalo) he’s had more success in the win column. Carolina has been playing more complete games, especially at the defensive end, and it shows in the results.

For the Caps, the object of the exercise is to play for 60 minutes. Now, that has an entirely different connotation than what you’re probably thinking. Usually, “playing 60 minutes” means giving maximum effort for the entire contest. No . . . not here. It means not going to an extra session. Once that clock ticks “60:01,” the Caps are in trouble. The club is 1-5 in extra session games this year, 0-4 in shootouts. When the game is confined to 60 minutes, the Caps are 7-5 (that’s a 96-point, likely playoff pace over 82 games).

But enough despair. Mike Vogel, in his Caps Gameday column, makes a salient point. The Caps are 15-8-8 in their last 31 games. That is a 101-point pace, kids. And 38 games – largely with the same players in key roles – is enough to think that this is not a fluke. We might be at the point of discarding this notion that the Caps are bottom-dwellers in the league and are at the point where, if they can’t yet dominate, they can compete with just about anyone on a night-to-night basis.

The object, in the face of this sustained level of performance, is believing that fact, that this club can compete with the playoff teams. There is much work to do, but a club with an ethic of hard work, a reputation as difficult to play against, and a growing cadre of skilled players does – in The Peerless’ mind – validate the strategy of growing the club from within and letting the development take its own pace. It’d be nice, though, to stick one in the Canes' ear-hole tonight. It’ll be difficult, and it will be close, but at the end of the night . . .

Caps 3 – ‘Canes 2.

Thursday, November 16, 2006

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Bruins

Half a loaf.

It’s better than none, but it gets stale quickly, too. The Caps left another standings point lying at the side of the road as a result of both their inability to take advantage of an inferior opponent early and their inability to convert in the shutout . . . uh, shootout (you’ll pardon The Peerless for the slip of the keystroke).

The Peerless is of two minds about this game. Let’s get the bad out of the way first. The Caps started quickly, dominating the first half dozen minutes, then a too-many-men penalty expired, leaving Phil Kessel to skate out the box, collect a pass from Glen Murray, and skate in almost unimpeded on Olaf Kolzig. Kessel might have his faults, but he is a talented offensive player – giving him time and space to collect himself for a one-on-the-goalie isn’t the wisest course of action if you’re a Caps fan.

Follow that up with Brad Stuart leaning into one that rocketed over the outstretched glove of a screened Kolzig, and it looked as if the competitive portion of the game would end early. But on the good side, the Caps – like a fighter – took the punch, weathered the storm, and fought back to halve the lead on a shorthanded shake-and-bake from Matt Pettinger.

Dainius Zubrus scored the obligatory convert-the-cross-ice-pass-from-Alex-Ovechkin in the second to tie the game, but the Caps should have had more. You ever see a toddler taking his first uneasy steps? That’s kind of the style Tim Thomas was employing in goal. Arms waving, legs splaying, pucks left around like so many toys on the family room floor . . . the Caps had more rebounds than you’d probably see at a Wizards game and could convert none of them. At that point, one had to believe (well, I had to believe) the Caps would be lucky to get out of this game with a point.

But that they did when the game ended in regulation. After an inconsequential overtime (not without its Tim Thomas moment when he almost misplayed an Ovechkin shot into the game-losing goal for Boston), we went to the gimmick round. The Caps came in oh-fer-seven on the season and three shutout, uh . . . shootout losses. The three Caps selected to participate in Bettman’s Folly – Alexander Semin, Alexander Ovechkin, and Matt Pettinger – were a combined oh-fer-six. A couple of minutes later, it was oh-fer-nine. Patrice Bergeron managed the only tally on the other side – slipping the puck between Kolzig’s pads as the goalie was sliding across the crease – and that was that, "3"-2.

They fought hard to grind out a point when the puck was taking odd bounces (usually off some part of Thomas’ equipment in the form of juicy rebounds the Caps couldn’t corral), but this was an opponent they should have buried, too. The Peerless thinks it says something positive about this team that one could discuss a game like this – one in which the Caps managed a standings point – and still think of it as unsatisfying. The expectations are growing for this club. We’re starting to expect them to do better.

Your stat of the game . . . 59. That is the percentage of faceoffs the Bruins won. It’s hard to establish any offensive continuity when you’re starting most plays playing defense. Boyd Gordon, who has made something of a cottage industry out of winning faceoffs, lost 16 of 23.

If one looks at the shift chart for the game, there is cause for concern. First, the odd. Donald Brashear did not skate a shift in the last 23 minutes of skating time (18 minutes of the third and the five minute overtime). Tomas Flesichmann didn’t skate a shift in the last dozen minutes of regulation (he did get one in overtime). Now, the concern part – Dainius Zubrus did not take the ice for the last 16 minutes of skating time (11 minutes of regulation, five in the overtime). Given the chemistry he and Ovechkin share at the moment, an injury – and at the moment, we’re not aware what that is – would cripple the Caps, who don’t exactly have a cupboard full of NHL-caliber top line centers at the moment.

All in all, it was a forgettable evening for the Caps, who got a point but should have had more. One wonders, should we come to the end of the season, and the Caps are one point in the playoffs or one point out, we might come back to this game as the reason – for either result.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, November 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Well, here we are . . . 8-5-4 . . . 20 points . . . the best start for the good guys in more than a decade. Still, 17 games does not make a season, and tonight it is the well rested Boston Bruins visiting VerMCIzon Center. The B’s have played fewer games – 14 – than any other team in the league, and only the Islanders have played as few road games (6). Tonight will be only the second Bruins’ road game in the last month. It could be a difficult time for –

“on the road again . . . just can't wait to get on the road again
The life I love is playin' hockey with my friends
And I can't wait to get on the road again . . . “

Willie! . . . I didn’t know you were a hockey fan.

“My heroes have always been goalies.
And they still are, it seems.
Sadly, in search of, but one step in back of,
Themselves and their glove savin’ dreams.”

Really . . . so you’re a goalie at heart, eh . . . how long have you been a hockey fan?

“Even when forever ends for me today . . . How long is forever this time . . . “

So, which team do you follow?

“Blackhawks are special with their own brand of misery . . . from being a loser too long.”

I guess that makes for some long winter nights, huh?

“I think of the hearts they have broken
And the golden chances that have passed them by
The dreams they once made now are over
As empty as the bubbles in my beer...”

Any teams you’re especially not fond of?

“Mama don't let your babies grow up to be Pens fans
Don't let 'em watch Crosby and wear Penguin shirts
They’ll only grow up to be wearin’ fine skirts . . .”

Words to live by . . . so lets’ get to the game . . .

Boston comes in 5-7-2 (12 points), propped up only by the Flyers in the 15-team Eastern Conference. They’re 2-2-1 in their last five, though, which for this club is indicative of improvement. While the Bruins are not an especially bad team on offense (15th in goals-per-game scored), they are a disaster on skates on defense. Their 3.93 goals-per-game allowed figure is 29th in the league. Their penalty killing of 75.3 percent is dead last. Their road penalty killing figure of 71.0 percent doesn’t really even merit the term “dead last” (although they are) . . . “ghastly,” “putrid,” and “Dear God, they stink on toast” come to mind.

The goaltending for Boston has been predictably bad, given the team-wide defensive statistics. It seems they are having more than a little difficulty settling on a number one goalie. Hannu Toivonen – a goalie of considerable promise – is 4.20 with a .869 save percentage. In his last two outings – a loss to Buffalo and a no-decision against Tampa Bay – he gave up nine goals on 38 shots in just less than 63 total minutes . . . that’s an 8.59 GAA, .763 save percentage. You may insert your own adjective here to describe just how bad that is. Tim Thomas is 3-3-2, 3.64, .887, which while an improvement, is not making anyone think, “Gerry Cheevers.” Since taking over in relief from Toivonen in the Tampa Bay game on November 4th, he’s 2-1 (a no-decision against Toronto), 5.26, .869. Brian Finley, who took the loss in relief of Thomas against Tampa, gave up only two goals in 39 minutes – qualifications for the Vezina among this group.

Enter Phillippe Sauve, plucked from the desert of Phoenix earlier this week, but he was sent to Providence. Uh, why? He’s allergic to baked beans, or something? Heaven only knows who the Bruins will start in goal, but the question is, will it matter?

All this means is that the Caps had better not be Ottawa-ing themselves into thinking, “hey, we’re good, we’re fine, we’re gonna have a high old time.” The Caps don’t have enough talent to win on talent alone (sorry, Herb…it seemed the right time to use that line). But this can be a big night for Alexander Ovechkin (if he can get out from under the shadow of Zdeno Chara) and the rest of the Caps. The Caps are 6-3-1 in their last 10 outings, 2-1-0 at home. The key here has been the play of goaltender, Olaf Kolzig. In those ten games, Kolzig has a record of 4-1-1 (plus a no-decision against Ottawa), over which time he has a 2.56 GAA, .938. Facing more than 41 shots per 60 minutes over this stretch has the makings of a problem down the road, but he’s been more than equal to the task recently.

Boston is an average offensive team playing against a goaltender (assuming Kolzig gets the start) who is hot. Washington is a better offensive team (almost a third-of-a-goal per game more than the Bruins) playing against a team with defense and goaltending issues.

If the Caps come out flat, they are certainly ripe to be plucked. But if they come out with a strong effort, Boston is not – by virtue of recent performances – in their class.

Caps 5 – Bruins 1.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Panthers

In case anyone is paying attention, that’s 6-3-1 in their last ten games, seven of them on the road. It was a very efficient game (except for those 45 shots on goal, but we quibble) the Caps played in beating Florida, 4-1. But let’s take a look at that larger picture for a moment . . . what jumps out of the numbers? Well, they’ve been shorthanded 53 times in that span (5.3 per game). Compare that with 41 in their first seven games (5.9 per game). That’s an improvement of more than ten percent. The number is even more striking in the last five – a total of 23 times shorthanded (4.6 per game).

Think that doesn’t matter? In those first seven games, the penalty kill was 33 for 41 (75.6 percent). In the last ten, it’s been 45 for 53 (84.9 percent), and in the last five 19 for 23 (82.6 percent). Fewer chances mean fresher penalty killers means more effective penalty killing. While it’s nice to see Alexander Ovechkin and Dainius Zubrus potting goals, and Matt Pettinger taking up where he left off last year, efficient and effective penalty killing will likely be a more important ingredient to success this year over the long run, given the way the game is played these days.

As for the game, again it was the Alex and Zubie Show . . . Ovechkin with a goal and a helper, Zubrus with a pair of goals. But how about a tip of the hat to Alexander Semin? If you were watching carefully on the Caps’ third goal, there was Semin with the puck along the left wing boards at the Florida line. He braced himself to take a hit and still managed to whip the puck backward through his legs to Ovechkin, who created some space to send a diagonal pass to Zubrus, who had merely to rifle the puck into the open net from low in the right wing circle. That gets the play of the game and a slice o’ pie from The Peerless.

And, in case you’re still paying attention, Olaf Kolzig is (with the loud exception of the Ottawa game) in something of a zone. In his last seven starts, he is 4-1-1 (he got a no-decision against Ottawa), 2.56, .938. He’s faced 41.1 shots per 60 minutes over that stretch, which is quite a workload. If that was 31.1 shots per game -- with the same save percentage -- that GAA would be 1.83 (something to think about).

Brian Pothier watch . . . no missed shots last night.

John Erskine watch . . . two hits, three blocked shots, and a penalty . . . it’s not the stuff of an “Erskine Hat Trick,” but it was a nice game.

Chris Gratton won 14 of 18 faceoffs. This, no doubt, will spur calls of Caps fans to “get this guy, McPhee.” The Peerless would sooner gargle with battery acid, but that’s just him.

All in all, it was one of those games where the goalie shined, and all the skaters played their roles. It’s hard to argue with that as a road recipe for success. Next up, the Bruins at home and a chance to see how Zdeno Chara looks in black and gold.

Monday, November 13, 2006

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, November 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Folks often ask me, “Peerless, where do you get the subjects for your gameday columns?”

Well, truth be told, they usually just pop into my head, like a bad lyric from a commercial jingle. Kind of like . . .

“When you say ‘Caps,’
You've said a lot of things nobody else can say
When you say ‘Caps,’
You've said you care enough to only want the Stanley Cup
When you say ‘Caps Hockey,’
You've said it all”

Or . . .

“My hockey team has a first name
I say it “WASH-ING-TON”
My hockey team has a second name
I say it “CAP-I-TALS”
Oh, I love to watch ‘em everyday
And if you ask me why, I'll say
Cause Washington just has a way
No B O L O G N . . . eh?”

Or . . .

Hockey . . . Capitals Hockey.
What kinds of fans watch Capitals hockey?
Fat fans, skinny fans, fans who climb on rocks . . .
Tough fans, sissy fans, even fans with chicken pox love hockey, Capitals hockey . . .
The game fans love to bite.

Ok, we’re still working on that one.

Meanwhile . . . tonight the Caps visit the land of early-bird dinners and adult communities (which pretty much describes the Panther locker room with the likes of Gary Roberts and Joe Nieuwendyk on the roster). The Panthers enter tonight’s play 12th in the Eastern Conference, which is actually a step back from where they finished last year. They have really been treading water lately – 2-3-3 in their last eight games – largely against pretty good teams (they’ve beaten the Rangers and Maple Leafs and have earned points in other games against the Sabres and the Rangers once more).

If there is one difference between last year and this, it is in goals allowed. Not having Roberto Luongo has made a difference – not a profound one, but enough. The Panthers are 22nd in goals allowed per game (3.28), whereas they were 16th last year (3.08). The special teams are of a split personality. While the penalty killing unit is rather average at best (79.8 percent – 25th in the league), the power play has shined (21.6 percent – 2nd), although it has only 25 opportunities in its last eight games. That power play has been remarkable consistent as well – 21.6% at home, 21.6 percent on the road (coincidentally, both are 8-for-37).

The Panthers, though, aren’t especially adept at holding a lead. They are 26th in the league when scoring first, 19th when leading after one period. It’s just as bad when they give up the first goal – they are 25th in the league in winning percentage when trailing first.

This is not a team with an especially dangerous scorer at the moment (Olli Jokinen notwithstanding). No player is on a pace for 30 goals, no player is on a pace for 75 points. With Todd Bertuzzi out (back) and Joe Nieuwendyk only just returning from injury (hip), it isn’t a deep team at forward these days.

For the Caps, it’s all a matter of consistency. After the wake-up slap in the face applied by Carolina, the Caps rebounded smartly with a superb effort Saturday in the 3-1 win over the Rangers. Applying that effort is what will yield results. While the Caps earned a few standings points early without necessarily getting their “A” game, that isn’t a long term recipe for success on a team whose skill level isn’t yet what it could be.

This is another game the Caps should win, even on the road. They are a better 5-on-5 squad, and their penalty killing unit is slowly marching up the rankings. Olaf Kolzig, despite the bleating of some among Caps fans, has had four sterling outings in his last six games (3-0-1, 1.96, .954 in those games) with an average game and a stinker thrown in. The Caps can leap-frog Tampa with a win, and it says here that they will . . . .

Caps 5 – Panthers 2