“An acre of performance is worth a whole world of promise.”
-- Arnold “Red” Auerbach
It might be that when the Washington Capitals drafted Jakub
Vrana with the 13th overall pick of the 2014 NHL entry draft, they
drafted their first true sniper since they drafted Peter Bondra in 1990. Different eras, different circumstances, but
there are similarities. Both came up
through European hockey in the run-up to their draft years. Bondra played four years with VSZ Kosice in
what was then Czechoslovakia and averaged 0.56 goals per game over 161 regular
season games. Vrana played for a
multitude of teams in European league and international play, averaging 0.55
goals per game in 392 games before he was drafted by the Caps. Bondra was almost a fixture in the Caps
lineup in the year following his draft, scoring 12 goals in 54 games as a
rookie in 1990-1991. Vrana followed what
is a conventional path for contemporary European players, playing another year
in Europe before joining the Hershey Bears for 36 games in the 2015-2016
season.
Bondra became the greatest goal scorer in Caps history (472
goals with Washington) until Alex Ovechkin surpassed him in the 2014-2015
season. Many years must pass before a
verdict is rendered on whether Vrana can be mentioned among the franchise’s
greatest goal scorers. He had a
beginning that gave a hint of what was possible. In only 21 games in his first season he
recorded three power play goals, tied for sixth-best on the team. He followed that up with a 13-goal season in
2017-2018, tied for 17th among all NHL rookies. Only three rookies had more postseason goals
than Vrana (three): Boston’s Jake
DeBrusk and Vegas’ Alex Tuch with six apiece, and San Jose’s Marcus Sorensen
with four.
To put Vrana’s brief career to date in some context, he is
one of five Capitals since 2005-2006 who, having only reached his 21st
birthday, averaged at least 0.15 goals per game over his first two seasons while
appearing in at least 50 games. The other four are among the most talented offensive players in this generation of
Capitals. And of course, it was his goal that got the
Caps started in their Cup-clinching win over the Vegas Golden Knights:
Odd Vrana Fact…
Jakub Vrana was only the fourth rookie in team history to
play in the postseason who was a native of the Czech Republic and the first
since Jaroslav Svejkovsky in 1998.
Fearless’ Take…
The Capitals have taken their time in bringing Jakub Vrana
along. Even though he was the 13th
overall pick of the 2014 entry draft, he is 23rd in NHL regular
season games played (94), tied for 22nd in goals (16), and 25th
in points. Some might find that a bit
disappointing, but that 2014 draft class was rather talented, what with the
likes of Aaron Ekblad, Sam Reinhart, David Pastrnak, Leon Draisaitl, Dyaln
Larkin, and William Nylander. When it
mattered last season, Vrana was a contributor. He
tied for fourth among all rookies in postseason goals (three), two of which
were game-winners (tied with Vegas’ Alex Tuch for first among rookies).
Cheerless’ Take…
For a “sniper,” he seems a bit scattershot. His shooting percentage in 73 games in 2017-2018
(9.8 percent) was just a bit above his percentage in 21 games in 2016-2017
(9.4). And this despite not being shy
about shooting. He was sixth on the club
in shots on goal (133) and in shots per game (1.82; minimum: 25 games). And the Caps were 11-1-1 in games in which he
skated less than ten minutes. What’s up
with that? It might be a picky point,
but being under 50 percent in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 in tied (45.45)
and close situations (49.71) look to be areas in which he could stand some
improvement.
Potential Milestones:
- 100 career games (he needs six)
- 50 career points (he needs 17)
The Big Question… Can Jakub Vrana “Go
Bondra” in 2018-2019?
In Peter Bondra’s second full
season with the Caps, his goals scored improved from 12 in 54 games to 28 in 71
games. Different era, different
circumstances, but how Jakub Vrana progresses in what will be his second full
season (and third in the NHL) will be one of the subplots worth watching as the
season unfolds. Bondra’s goals per game improved
by 77 percent from his first to second full season. A similar improvement for Vrana would lift
him to 0.32 goals per game this season.
If he was to play 75 games, that would result in a 24-goal season. That might be a bit too high a climb to make
if he is getting third line minutes on the left wing and little power play
time. The flip side of this is that if
he improves his shooting efficient with a comparable number of shots on goal,
say, from 9.8 to 12.8 percent (keep in mind, eight Caps forwards playing in at
least 50 games last year had higher percentages), he would be a 17-goal
scorer. If he could increase his
shooting frequency to 2.0 shots per game with that efficiency, he would be
pushing 20 goals. These are elements of
the maturation process one might look at in the development of a young player.
In the end…
Snipers in the NHL are, by their nature, opportunistic. Jakub Vrana fills that bill so far. He has four power play goals and four
game-winning goals among his 16 career goals thus far. Nine of the 12 regular season games in which
he scored a goal last season ended in Caps wins. He has shown no particular preference for
home or road games, scoring eight of his 16 total career goals in each
category.
To return to comparisons with Peter Bondra, beginning with
his second full season through 2002-2003, Bondra went 12-for-12 in seasons with
more than 20 goals. No other Capital
over that span had more than three such seasons, and only Dmitri Khristich and
Mike Ridley are in that group. Vrana
does not have the burden of being the go-to goal scorer with this club that
Peter Bondra was over his career with the Caps.
That responsibility falls to Alex Ovechkin for the time being. But as he enters his second full season, it
is not unreasonable that in the normal course of development we see more
evidence of the goal-scorer that Vrana can become. His power play ice time might be a large
factor on whether he can top the 20-goal mark (he averaged 40 seconds of power
play time per game last season), but he should challenge that threshold to
cultivate the seeds of performance in his acre of the NHL.
Projection: 77 games, 18-18-36, plus-5
Photo: Harry How/Getty Images North America
