Saturday, August 18, 2007
But only The Peerless can bring you "The Real Story." It goes back to a meeting in a darkened booth in a seedy bar in upper Northwest Washington, where the two protagonists had a meeting . . .
Steve...sh*t, I'm bored. It's hot, there aren't any Redskin games, and Pollin is really getting on my nerves.
Ted....I hear ya. I'm tired of having nothing to write about on my blog except that 'Nanking' thing, and surfing the chat rooms on AOL gets old real quick.
Steve...we gotta liven up this burg...any ideas?
Ted...I dunno...wanna start a fight?
Steve...what do you have in mind?
Ted...well ok, try this on...that Beckham guy is coming to DC soon, and I know you guys won't be devoting much air time to that. You could have a segment or two that makes fun of the soccer fans here and maybe link that up with hockey...
Steve...the 'no one watches' angle...
Ted...right...then I'll blog for a few days on how you guys don't 'get it'...
Steve...and I come back a few days later with my own blog, sprinkle in a few 'radio jargon' terms no one will understand, and we'll have a full blown kerfuffle on our hands.
Ted...and folks will be talking about us for days...your ratings will go up...folks will buy more hockey tickets...
Ted...see, you're getting in the spirit of it...and then I can come on your show and we can have a mano-e-mano to the death.
Steve...that's not a bad idea
Ted...yeah, and it beats reading those insufferably boring Caps blogs all summer.
Where you stand depends upon where you sit as to whether Czaban stepped in it or Ted was pwned. But as for the real story, remember, you read it here first.
This is not a look at individual goaltenders, trying to compare Olaf Kolzig to his fellow number one netminders in the league. It is more of a “
This is something of an odd and, for the Caps (if they’re lucky), unattainable one. Why? Well, who was the number one, and who was the backup? In the playoffs, the number one was Backstrom, but in the regular season? Backstrom had 41 appearances, while Fernandez had 44. The balance extended to several other measures, too:
Minutes played: Fernandez – 2,422/Backstrom – 2,227
Shots Faced: Fernandez – 1,158/Backstrom – 1,028
Wins: Backstrom – 23/Fernandez – 22
But this is very misleading. Of Fernandez’ 44 appearances, only one came after January 30th, the product of a knee injury. Given that opening, Backstrom stormed into it. After January 30th, Backstrom was 18-3-3, 1.95, .921, over the remainder of the regular season.
It was an odd set of circumstances that resulted in such statistical balance, yet such a clear difference between the first and second halves of the year for the
There is a certain nobility to the notion of the “iron man,” but the days of Glenn Hall are long over. Of the top ten goalies in games played in the regular season last year, three did not make the playoffs (Andrew Raycroft, Dwayne Roloson, and Tim Thomas). Of the seven who made the playoffs, four didn’t make it past the first round. Two others (Lundqvist, Luongo) who defeated top-ten goalies in the first round lost in the second round.
Between the finalists for the Stanley Cup, Jean-Sebastien Giguere played “only” 56 games in the regular season for
These days, while settling on one goaltender is the preferred formula for the playoffs, having two goalies who can provide quality time appears to be an essential ingredient for success in the regular season to get a club to the playoffs. While
Capitals (projected) – Olaf Kolzig, Brent Johnson
Kolzig has been a minutes-eater since assuming the number one responsibilities in 1997-1998. Since taking over the top-spot, his per-season endurance numbers look like this:
Shots faced: 1,865
Shots faced-per-60 minutes: 29.2
However, it is interesting to note that since the 1999-2000 season, Kolzig’s numbers have decreased each year in two relevant areas:
Games: from 73 to 54
Minutes: from 4,371 to 3,184
Couple that with the fact that Kolzig will be 38 on the day after the regular season ends, and it is apparent that the Caps are going to have to get production from the backup goaltending position, if not have a backup who can assume the top job for significant stretches.
Is Brent Johnson that backup? Well, it seems his tenure with the Caps has been something like the little girl with the curl…when he’s been good, he’s been very good. And when he's been bad...
Overall with the Caps, Johnson is 15-27-8, 3.53, .897. These are not bad, but neither are they comforting statistics, even for a number-two goaltender. But in 56 games in which he’s played over the past two seasons, Johnson has registered 15 games in which he allowed or was on a pace to allow two or fewer goals. The trouble is, he’s also had 16 games in which he allowed or was on a pace to allow five or more goals. Last year, which serves as the benchmark, he was eight games on the good side and seven games on the bad side of that comparison in 30 total games. By way of comparison, Kolzig was 22 and 8 last year.
It’s difficult to generate a lot of consistency when your work is infrequent and intermittent. But there is a window into Johnson’s performance when he gets more consistent work. From February 15 – March 12, Johnson played in 12 of 13 games the Caps played (corresponding to Kolzig’s knee injury). Over that period, he was 1-8-2 (one no-decision), 3.47, .886. The latter two numbers are not all that different from his season numbers of 3.61, .889. But only twice in that span did Johnson allow or play on a pace to allow five or more goals. Four times did he give up two or fewer. He was more consistent around his season numbers, and that’s the good news.
There has been a lot of focus on Johnson in this benchmark, but that is because unless Kolzig simply forgets how to strap on his pads (he should be a constant in the games he plays), Johnson is the key. Playoff aspirants can’t afford to give away games when the number one goaltender isn’t on the ice. If one looks at the 16 teams that made the playoffs last year, here are the principal backups and their records:
NY Rangers: Kevin Weekes (14 games, 4-6-2, 3.39, .879)
NY Islanders: Mike Dunham (19 games, 4-10-3, 3.74, .889)
Johnson is certainly not the worst if included in that group, but there are some facts to note here (and yes, there is a chicken-and-the-egg element to it):
-- None of the ten goalies who played more than 20 games in this group (except for Marc Denis, who was demoted) had a below-.500 record.
-- None of the ten goalies who played more than 20 games (again, except Denis) had a goal-against of more than 3.00
-- Only two of the ten goalies in this group who played more than 20 games had a save percentage below .900 (Denis and Johan Hedberg)
Minnesota got spectacular play from a player thought to be a backup. So good, in fact, that the “starter” is now in