The Peerless
Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The
Washington Capitals return to their brief sojourn through the Metropolitan
Division on Friday evening with a visit to Raleigh, North Carolina. It is the third of four straight divisional
games for the Caps and a chance to improve on their 7-5-0 record against their
new/old rivals.
The Caps are
part of a great big “meh” I the middle of the new Metro Division, at least
insofar as insofar as intra-divisional rivalries are concerned. Pittsburgh is way out in front in wins and
losses within the division with a 12-4-0 record. At the other end the New York Islanders are a
dismal 2-8-3 (through Wednesday’s games).
The Caps,
with their 7-5-0 divisional record, are in that great glop of goo in the
middle, standing in third place among the clubs in intra-divisional
records. It is not much better than the
seventh-place Columbus Blue Jackets, who are 5-5-1.
In second
place (by virtue of having played fewer divisional games) is Carolina at 7-4-0,
including two wins in Washington so far this season. This will be the clubs’ first contest in
Carolina this year. The Hurricanes, who
started December with a 3-1-0 record, have displayed a bit of symmetry in their
last four games, losing three of four (two in overtime). The Hurricanes’ 4-2-2 record for the month
has given them a boost, jumping from sixth in the Metro when play started on
December 1st to third place as the Caps descend on Raleigh.
Carolina has
24 goals in eight games in December, a tidy 3.00 goals-per-game average. Eleven players share in the 24 goals, and 18
players have recorded points. Jeff
Skinner, a.k.a. “The Human Tantrum,” has had a fine December to date – eight goals (two game-winners, including one
against Washington on December 3rd) and two assists. The eight goals pushed Skinner’s total to 12
for the season in 23 games, just one off his total for last season in 42
games. In 18 career games against the
Caps, Skinner is 4-10-14, plus-1.
Skinner’s
mirror image in December is Eric Staal, who has three goals and seven assists
for ten points of his own. It is part of
a longer stretch of games that has him recording points in 14 of his last 16
games (6-13-19) after going only 3-6-9 over his first 18 games of the 2013-2014
season. If there is an odd number to his
season to date it comes in Friday games.
He has more penalty minutes recorded (14) and a worse plus-minus
(minus-9) on Friday than he has on any other day of the week.
Andrej
Sekera is quietly putting together what might be a career year for
himself. Through 32 games, the
eighth-year defenseman is 6-12-18, good enough to rank in the top-20 in scoring
among defensemen through Wednesday’s games.
Sekera is on a pace to go 15-30-45, which would obliterate his personal
bests in goals (he has already topped his best of four goals in 2009-2010, with
Buffalo), assists (26, with Buffalo in 2010-2011), and points (29 in
2010-2011). He is doing it while
averaging 23:16 a game, more than two minutes more than his personal best of
21:12 set last year with Buffalo, and more than three minutes above his career
average of 20:14 a game.
Here is how
the teams compare in their overall numbers..
1. Cooking has not been especially flavorful for
the Hurricanes down in Raleigh so far this season. In 17 home games so far this season Carolina
has topped two goals only three times.
They have allowed more than two goals ten times over those 17 games.
2. Carolina’s power play has been nothing to get
excited about this season, and the trend continues in December. In eight games the ‘Canes are 3-for-27 with
the man advantage (11.1 percent). It is
part of a longer slump in which Carolina is 7-for-69 over their last 22 games
dating back to November 1st.
Carolina has only 15 power play goals for the season (26th in
the league), but two of them came against the Caps on nine opportunities in two
games.
3. At least the penalty kill has picked up. After a November in which Carolina went
36-for-45 killing penalties (80.0 percent), they are 21-for-24 in December
(87.5 percent). They are 8-for-9 killing
penalties against the Caps in two games this season.
4. The good and the bad. Carolina is adept at eking out points in one-goal
decisions. In 18 one-goal decisions so
far this season they have points in 16 of them (9-2-7). One of them came against the Caps, a 3-2 win
on October 10th. The
Hurricanes have less success in games decided by three of more goals. In eight such decisions they are only 3-5,
but one of their wins came against Washington, a 4-1 win on December 3rd.
5. Carolina struggles with possession in critical moments of games. The
Hurricanes are ranked 24th in Corsi-for percentage in 5-on-5 cloase
situations, 27th in Fenwick-for percentage in those situations. They have been better lately, though. In
eight games in December they are over 50 percent in Corsi-for seven times
(including their last six contests), over 50 percent in Fenwick-for in six of
them , those being their last six contests.
1. Only four teams have more one-goal wins than
do the Caps (10).
2. Washington is the only team in the league to
score precisely as much as they allow – 99 goals scored and 99 goals allowed in
34 games.
3. No team has more wins than the Caps when
trailing after two periods. Not that it
is a sure thing; Washington is 5-10-1 in such situations, tied with Chicago (5-5-0)
for the league lead in wins.
4. Only
Toronto and Philadelphia have more penalty minutes per game than do the
Caps. But here is the thing. The Caps have 120 penalty minutes in three
games against Philadelphia (40.0 per game), 370 penalty minutes in 31 games
against everyone else (11.9 minutes per game).
5. The Caps are still stuck in the mid-20’s in
the league’s possession rankings in 5-on-5 close situations – 26th
in Corsi-for percentage, 25th in Fenwick-for percentage. In their last four games their Corsi-for
percentage is 38.8 percent, their Fenwick-for is 36.3 percent.
The Peerless’
Players to Ponder
Carolina:
Alexander Semin
After
missing 12 games to a concussion, Alexander Semin returned to the lineup for
Carolina on December 12th against Calgary. In two games back in the lineup he has yet to
register a goal on six shots or a point in just over 42 minutes of total ice
time. He has not had a goal since
October 24th (12 games without one).
The Enigmatic One has been more productive in losses (2-3-5) than he has
in wins (1-3-4), although the differences are slight. It indicates he has not been a difference
maker, at least so far, although the populations of games are small for making
conclusions. It is quite different from
last season in which he recorded 10 of his 13 goals in wins and had a 17.2
percent shooting percentage in wins (3.3 percent in losses). We would just as soon he have a nice, clean,
enigmatic score sheet. In six games
against his former squad, Semin is 2-3-5, minus-3.
Washington:
Joel Ward
Joel Ward is
second on the Capitals roster in goals (ten), but he has only one in his last
15 games. His experience with the Caps
in his time here has been better starts than finishes. Last year he had five goals in his first 12
games, only three in his last 27 games. In 2011-2012 he had four goals in his
first 12 games, only two in his last 61 contests. If he is going to score, tonight might be the
time. Four of his ten goals have come in
five Friday contests. The Caps are 3-1-1
in those games. In 15 career games
against Carolina, Ward is 1-3-4, minus-3.
Keys:
1. Backup the Backup. What do you want to bet Justin Peters gets
this start? In seven career appearances
against the Caps he is 4-3-0, 1.67, .938 with two shutouts. However, he has not faced an exceptionally
large workload – 27.1 shots per 60 minutes.
The Caps need to do a better job of applying pressure.
2. Score first.
Carolina is one of only two teams (Chicago is the other) yet to lose a
game in regulation when scoring first. They
just don’t do it much (7-0-2, compared to Chicago’s 19-0-3). Whisper sweet nothings in their ears, do a
dance, pull their pants down. Do what
you have to do to score first.
3. Get under
his Skin(ner). Jeff Skinner is feeling
all fat and happy with nine goals in his last nine games. Carolina is 3-1-2 in
games in which he scored in that stretch. Make him unhappy. Jostle him, bang him, muss his hair.
In the end…
It’s the
last weekend before the holiday, and like anyone else, there are
distractions. Those for the Caps are
compounded by the fact that this is the first of a back-to-back set of games
(they host New Jersey tomorrow). This is
a club that seems to have had focus issues all season. It is something to watch for – and beware of –
against one of their old time Southeast rivals.
Capitals 4 –
Hurricanes 3
