The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
In the movie, “Groundhog Day,’ Pittsburgh weatherman Phil
Connors awakens in Punxsutawney to do a report on Punxsutawney Phil and the
town’s Groundhog Day festival. Stranded
in the small town, Connors goes to bed and wakes to what appears to be a rerun
of Groundhog Day. The ritual of waking
up every day to Groundhog Day will be repeated by Connors for what seems years,
if not decades.
Playing – and losing – to the Pittsburgh Penguins has put
the Washington Capitals in the unenviable role of Connors, spending every
spring, it seems, having to face the Penguins and having to endure the
disappointment of the same ending in what seems by now endless repetition.
Well, here we are again for the third consecutive season and
for the eleventh time since the teams first met in the postseason in 1991. It has been 24 years since the Caps won their
only series against the Penguins. Is it
time for “Groundhog Day” to end?
Washington Capitals (49-26-7)
vs.
Pittsburgh Penguins (47-29-6)
Then and Now
The “then and now” with regard to these two teams is a bit
different. Starting in 2009, these teams have met three times in the
postseason, and the results in the second season bear little resemblance to
those in the regular season.
At a high level, in those three seasons (2008-2009,
2015-2016, and 2016-2017), the Caps enjoyed an overall 7-2-3 record in the
regular season. Alas, in the postseason the Pens put up, in the famous
construction uttered by basketball legend Moses Malone, fo’ fo’ fo’. Four wins
in each of the three postseasons to win each series and post an overall record
of 12-8. Here is the recent postseason history of these clubs compared to regular season records in those years:
Breaking it down by year, the Caps did not have an overall
losing record against the Pens in the regular season in any of the three years,
and only in 2015-2016 did they lose games in regulation. It hardly needs
repeating that the Caps had “no” winning postseason record in any of those
three years.
And the differences between regular and postseason spread to
both home and road records. The Caps earned the majority of available standings
points both at home (9 of 12) and on the road (8 of 12) over those three
regular seasons. The postseason was another story. The Caps had a winning
record on home ice only in the 2016 postseason, and that was perhaps the
product of not having the play a Game 7 on home ice, the series having ended in
Pittsburgh in overtime in Game 6. They did win two of three games in Pittsburgh
last spring, their only winning road record, but it was not enough to overcome
a 1-3 record on home ice. The Caps had overall losing records both at home
(5-6) and on the road (3-6) against the Pens in those three postseasons.
So…this season the Caps and Pens split four games, each team
splitting games played on their respective home ice. Does that advantage the
Caps? The Pens? Does it argue for a long, evenly matched series?
No.
Here is the 2017-2018 season series summary...
And here are the regular season series scoring rankings for players on each team:
How Caps of you to notice…
The Caps have faced the Penguins ten times in the post
season coming into this series. They won once, beating the Pens in six games in
1994. Since then, the Caps have beaten seven different franchises in the
postseason – Boston Bruins (1998), Ottawa Senators (1998), Buffalo Sabres
(1998), New York Rangers (2009, 2011), New York Islanders (2015), Philadelphia
Flyers (2016), and the Toronto Maple Leafs (2017)… and lost to the
Penguins…wait for it… seven times.
How Caps of you to notice II…
With his first point in this series, Alex Ovechkin will be
all alone in second place in franchise history in points recorded against the
Penguins in the playoffs. He currently has 26 points, tied with Michal Pivonka
and Calle Johansson. Peter Bondra leads with 31 points. Ah, but here is the
“how Caps of you to notice” part of that. Bondra…31 points in 39 games.
Johansson…26 points in 36 games. Pivonka… 26 points in 31 games. Ovechkin? He
has his 26 points in 20 games. He has points in 15 of those 20 games.
Never Ever
The Caps might have lost to the Pens nine times in ten
postseason series, but they’ve never been swept, so there’s that.
Never Ever II
The Caps have played 30 playoff games in Pittsburgh. They
have not once shut out the Penguins. In fact, they have never held the Penguins
under two goals in any of those 30 games.
It just doesn’t matter…
The Caps have won Game 1 eight times in ten tries against
the Penguins. They won a series only once. That’s OK, they lost both series in
which they lost Game 1, too.
Singing for the Unsung
We had Tom Wilson as the possible unsung hero of the first
round or a deep run. He has not disappointed so far, going 2-1-3, plus-3 (best
plus-minus among forwards) on the team in Round 1. But as a team goes deeper,
so more players need to step up. Who might we add to this list? One thing that
the Penguins have gotten that the Caps have not in their recent playoff
matchups is contributions from bottom six forwards. Recall that last season,
the Caps did not get a goal in the entire postseason from Lars Eller, Brett
Connolly, Jay Beagle, or Daniel Winnk. All but Winnik are returning with
perhaps an eye at redemption. But another forward might be worth watching.
Chandler Stephenson got second line minutes late in the
series against Columbus, but this seemed more a product of the injury that
forced Andre Burakovsky to the sideline. He probably projects out more as a
third-line player at this point. But the point here is that Stephenson gives
the Caps a dimension they did not have with Beagle, Wilson, or Winnik last
season – speed. It was on display in Game 6 against the Blue Jackets when he
ran down a chip out by Jay Beagle with the Caps shorthanded and then seemed to
surprise Cam Atkinson with his speed as he cut to the net and slid a backhand
between goalie Sergei Bobrovsky’s pads in the series-clinching win. If
Stephenson can combine that speed and those soft hands often enough against the
Penguins (and anything would be welcome considering last season), the Caps
would be a better bet to move on.
And who might that be for Pittsburgh?
It’s hard to find an “unsung” player on a team seeking a
third consecutive Stanley Cup. The assistant trainer’s assistant has had
feature stories about him at this point. Defenseman Brian Dumoulin might
qualify, though. He has a goal and an assist in six games this postseason,
second among Penguin defensemen in points (Kris Letang has seven). His 1-5-6
scoring line is precisely the same as last year’s the difference being that he
compiled that goal and five assists in 25 games last season, while doing it in
six game thus far this postseason. More important, perhaps, is his ice time. He
is second on the club among defensemen in both total ice time per game (22:27)
and in even strength ice time per game (18:47). H averaged only half a shift
per game less than Letang in the first round. He will get big minutes, and one
would think they have to be productive, or at least not a liability in his own
end, for the Pens to keep their hopes of a three-peat alive.
Specialty of the House
As we noted in the first round preview, “special teams are
always a fertile area for consideration as a deciding factor in a series.” With
the Caps and Blue Jackets, the focus was on both power plays being productive
down the stretch of the regular season. In the second round, the focus might be
on the irresistible force (the Caps’ top-ranked 33.3 percent power play in the
first round) versus the impenetrable object (the Penguins’ third-ranked 90.5
percent penalty kill).
There might be a bit too much dependence on the power play
for the Caps, though. In the first round (pending results of Game 7 in the
Boston-Toronto series), no team had more power play opportunities than the Caps
(27), and no team had more power play goals (nine).
However, the Penguins found themselves shorthanded quite
often in the first round series against the Flyers, their 21 instances being
fourth-most in the opening round. The odd part of the Penguin penalty kill in
the first round was that it was perfect on the road – 13 for-13 – while among
the worst at home (6-for-8/75.0 percent, tied for 12th among 16 teams).
The other end of the special teams match-up pits a mediocre
first round power play (Pittsburgh, at 20.0 percent, is ranked eighth of 16
teams) against an average penalty kill (Washington is tied for seventh at 83.3
percent). But again, the odd part is the Penguins’ performance on the road
versus at home. On home ice, their power play is a woeful 1-for-13 (7.7
percent), while it is a blistering 33.3 percent (4-for-12), the small
population of instances aside. Those differences might be exacerbated in the
second round, considering that the Caps are a perfect 11-for-11 in road penalty
kill, but only 9-for-13 at home (69.2 percent), second-worst among the 16 teams
in the first round. That fact must be tempered, though, by the Caps switching
goalies in Game 2. Braden Holtby is 19-for-19 in saves while shorthanded,
replacing Philipp Grubauer, who was juts 6-for-10.
You have to be this tall to ride this ride
We noted in the opening round preview that “rookies can make
a mark in the post season, but it would not be the way to bet.” Our view on the
Caps’ rookies, Jakub Vrana in particular, still holds. But what about the
Penguins. So far, only two rookies have dressed for the Pens, and only one –
Zach Aston-Reese – dressed for all six games of their opening round series
against the Flyers. Reese was productive in limited work in the regular season,
going 4-2-6, plus-2, in 16 games, one of his goals a game-winner. He had one
point (an assist) and was minus-1 against the Flyers in Round 1, giving the
impression that his contributions are likely to be modest. Not that the
Penguins are in any particular need of rookie production.
The Tender Mercies of ‘Tender Tendencies
We will say this right up front. This series is as likely to turn on the play of Braden Holtby for the Caps, if not more, than any other factor. Consider that in his postseason
career, Holtby is 5-8, 2.57, .908, with no shutouts against the Penguins in 13
appearances. Those are not awful goals against average or save percentage numbers, but in 51 playoff games against
everyone else, he is 28-23, 1.85, .937, with three shutouts. And those number differences are not a
postseason aberration, either. In 20
career regular season appearances against the Penguins, Holtby is 8-9-2, 2.90,
.911, with two shutouts. Against
everyone else, he is 217-80-33, 2.38. .920 with 30 shutouts in 341 appearances. You have to wonder just what the Penguins have on Holtby.
Holtby has tended goal in some overall bad luck, too, or at least
without a lot of support. Among goalies
with at least 25 postseason games played, a goals against average of 2.25 or
less, and a save percentage of .920 or better, only Patrick Lalime has a win
loss record closer to .500 (21-20 in 41 games) than Holtby (33-31 in 64 games).
As for Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray, he has an interesting
postseason history of his own. Before
this season, two postseason appearances, two Stanley Cups. But there is where the similarities in those
two seasons begins and ends. He was very
good in his first trip to the postseason, appearing in 21 of the Penguins’ 24
games in the 2016 postseason, posting a record of 15-6, 2.08, .923, with one
shutout. Only three rookie goaltenders
since the 2005-2006 season had a lower GAA (one of them being Braden Holtby:
1.95 in 2012), and only Ilya Bryzgalov in 2006 had a higher save percentage
(.944, minimum: 10 games played). Part
of that record came at the Caps’ expense, against whom Murray was 4-2, 2.40,
.921 with one shutout.
Murray’s second trip to the postseason ended the same way,
with a Stanley Cup, but he spent a good portion of it watching, not
playing. He missed the last 11 games of
the Penguins’ run to the Cup with a lower body injury. He was on his way to putting up better
numbers, posting a 7-3, 1.70, .937 record with three shutouts before going down
to injury.
This series matches two goalies who are among five having
appeared in at least 25 postseason games, posted a goals against average of
under 2.00 (both are at 1.99), and recorded a save percentage of .925 or better (Holtby is
at .931, Murray at .926) with at least four shutouts (Murray has six, Holtby
has four). San Jose’s Martin Jones is
the only other active goalie on that list (Patrick Lalime and Dominik Hasek are
the others (numbers from hockey-reference.com).
Management Matters
There is the good news and the bad news about Capitals head
coach Barry Trotz. The good news is,
Trotz is the only head coach in team history to lead his team to the second
round of the postseason in four consecutive years. The bad news is, in Nashville and in
Washington, Trotz teams have gone no further.
Five times – two with Nashville and three with Washington – Trotz’ teams
failed to move to a conference final after winning their first two series. And, of 32 coaches with at least 90 games of
postseason coaching experience in the NHL, Trotz has the second-worst win-loss
percentage (.453/43-52). Only Jacques
Martin’s record is worse among that group (.450/50-61).
At the other end of the spectrum is Pittsburgh’s Mike
Sullivan. His early coaching career was
not the stuff of legend. In one full
season with the Boston Bruins (2003-2004) he did reach the playoffs, but the
Bruins were eliminated in the first round by the archrival Montreal Canadiens. Fast-forward 11 years to the 2016 post
season, and Sullivan, who was an in-season replacement for Mike Johnston, led
the Penguins to the Stanley Cup, duplicating the in-season replacement to
Stanley Cup journey of Dan Byslma in 2009.
After repeating with the Pens last season and winning in six games in
the first round this postseason, Sullivan is 39-23 as a playoff coach. Among 39 coaches to have coached in at least
30 games but fewer than 75, that is the most wins, and his .629 winning
percentage is also best among that group.
The Caps will win if…
They can keep from getting hurt by forwards not named
“Crosby,” “Malkin,” or “Kessel." Last
season, the Penguins got goals from nine different forwards in their series
against the Caps, and they had points from 12 of the 14 forwards who dressed in
the series. In 2016, it was goals from
nine forwards and points from 11 of 13 forwards to dress. It is one thing for Crosby or Malkin to get
their points, and frankly the Caps did a pretty good job of containing them, if
not shutting them down. But the Pens
have had game-winning goals from Carl Hagelin, Nick Bonino (two, including a
series-clincher in overtime in 2016), Eric Fehr (ugh…), Patric Hornqvist, Bryan
Rust, and Jake Guentzel. The “un-star”
performances have done in the Caps more than they have been dominated by Crosby
or Malkin. Keep that from happening this
time around, and perhaps the Caps get to go to the third round for the third
time in team history.
The Penguins will win if…
The continue to make Braden Holtby look ordinary, especially
at even strength. Of the four goalies to
dress for the Caps against the Penguins since they met in 2009, Holtby has the
best goals against average (2.57) and the best save percentage (.908), but that
only serves to illustrate one reason the Caps have had so little success
against this team in the postseason.
Those are not, by the standards Holtby has set in the playoffs since he
came into the league, good numbers. But
where things take a turn is at even strength.
Of 31 goalies to have appeared in at least ten playoff games since 2012,
Holtby’s .938 save percentage at even strength against teams other than
Pittsburgh would be fifth best in the league over that span. But against the Penguins, that even strength
save percentage is .908. Only two in
that same group of 31 goalies have worse even strength postseason save
percentages over that span. If Holtby
cannot improve on that even strength save percentage, the Penguins will dish
out another helping of disappointment with a side of bitterness to the Caps.
In the end…
There is a curious lack of pressure on either of these
teams. The Penguins are playing with
house money, in a way, having won the Stanley Cup in each of their last two
seasons. Yes, a third-straight Cup in
the salary cap era would put them in the conversation of most impressive
dynasties in the expansion era, but being the first team to win consecutive
titles since the Detroit Red Wings did it in 1997 and 1998 is quite an
accomplishment.
For the Capitals, this was not supposed to be a season with
a deep postseason run. Expectations of a
much deeper team weighed heavily on them the past two seasons, but this club,
having lost a half dozen skaters from the squad that lost Game 7 to the
Penguins last spring, was thought to be a borderline playoff team by many
prognosticators and on no one’s short list of Cup contenders. Within the context of this season, the Caps
are playing with house money, too.
However, the Caps do have one thing in common with the
fictitious Phil Connors. Those
repetitions might have permitted them, by sheer repetition, to figure out a
way to either beat the Penguins on the basis of x’s and o’s, or beating them on
the basis of the cumulative level of experience that they obtained in playing
them. For Caps fans who think this tale
never ends differently, just remember.
In the end, Phil got the girl and broke the spell.
Capitals in six…that’s right, six.
